{"id":791368,"date":"2026-04-10T06:04:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T04:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailynewshungary.com\/cn\/2026-%e5%b9%b4%e5%8c%88%e7%89%99%e5%88%a9%e9%80%89%e4%b8%be%e6%b0%91%e6%84%8f%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%ef%bc%9a%e8%92%82%e8%90%a8%e5%85%9a%e7%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e8%83%bd%e8%b5%a2%e5%be%97%e4%b8%89%e5%88%86\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T06:04:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T04:04:00","slug":"2026-%e5%b9%b4%e5%8c%88%e7%89%99%e5%88%a9%e9%80%89%e4%b8%be%e6%b0%91%e6%84%8f%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%ef%bc%9a%e8%92%82%e8%90%a8%e5%85%9a%e7%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e8%83%bd%e8%b5%a2%e5%be%97%e4%b8%89%e5%88%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dailynewshungary.com\/cn\/2026-%e5%b9%b4%e5%8c%88%e7%89%99%e5%88%a9%e9%80%89%e4%b8%be%e6%b0%91%e6%84%8f%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%ef%bc%9a%e8%92%82%e8%90%a8%e5%85%9a%e7%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e8%83%bd%e8%b5%a2%e5%be%97%e4%b8%89%e5%88%86\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 \u5e74\u5308\u7259\u5229\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\uff1a\u8482\u8428\u515a\u771f\u7684\u80fd\u8d62\u5f97\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u591a\u6570\u7968\u5417\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>TL;DR\uff1a\u8482\u8428\u771f\u7684\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u591a\u6570\u7968\u5417\uff1f\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u6700\u65b0\u7684 Medi\u00e1n \u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8482\u8428\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5308\u7259\u5229 2026 \u5e74\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u8d62\u5f97\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7684\u5baa\u6cd5\u591a\u6570\u5e2d\u4f4d\u3002\u8be5\u6c11\u8c03\u673a\u6784\u9884\u8ba1\u4f69\u7279-\u9a6c\u624e\u5c14\u7684\u653f\u515a\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97 138-142 \u4e2a\u5e2d\u4f4d\uff0c\u8f7b\u677e\u8d85\u8fc7 199 \u540d\u8bae\u5458\u4e2d 133 \u4e2a\u5e2d\u4f4d\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6295\u7968\u7387\u3001\u9009\u533a\u6548\u7387\u548c\u540e\u671f\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6700\u540e\u51e0\u5929\u7f29\u5c0f\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8ddd\u79bb\u5308\u7259\u5229\u6295\u7968\u4ec5\u5269\u51e0\u5929\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u8482\u8428\u80fd\u5426\u51fb\u8d25\u7ef4\u514b\u6258-\u6b27\u5c14\u73ed\u7684\u83f2\u5fb7\u65af\u515a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8482\u8428\u80fd\u5426\u83b7\u5f97\u91cd\u5851\u56fd\u5bb6\u6cd5\u5f8b\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u4f53\u7cfb\u6240\u9700\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u8d85\u7ea7\u591a\u6570\u3002\u65b0\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/dailynewshungary.com\/cn\/%e6%9c%80%e6%96%b0%e9%80%89%e5%89%8d%e6%b0%91%e6%84%8f%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%ef%bc%9a%e6%ac%a7%e5%b0%94%e7%8f%ad%e6%98%af%e5%90%a6%e4%bc%9a%e9%9d%a2%e4%b8%b4-16-%e5%b9%b4%e6%9d%a5%e6%9c%80%e5%a4%a7\/\/\">\u6885\u8fea\u5b89\u5e2d\u4f4d\u9884\u6d4b<\/a>\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7b54\u6848\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u4f69\u7279-\u9a6c\u624e\u5c14\u83b7\u5f97\u81ea\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u83f2\u5fb7\u65af\u515a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u538b\u5012\u6027\u4f18\u52bf\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u6388\u6743\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u9009\u4e3e\u5236\u5ea6\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5355\u51ed\u6c11\u8c03\u6570\u5b57\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bf4\u660e\u5168\u90e8\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5f53\u5730\u533a\u4e00\u7ea7\u7684\u6548\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u653e\u5927\u6216\u524a\u5f31\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u7684\u9886\u5148\u4f18\u52bf\u65f6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rank-math-toc-block\" id=\"rank-math-toc\"><h2>\u672c\u6587\u5185\u5bb9<\/h2><nav><ul><li class=\"\"><a href=\"#what-the-latest-hungary-election-polls-say\">\u5308\u7259\u5229\u5927\u9009\u6700\u65b0\u6c11\u8c03\u7ed3\u679c<\/a><\/li><li class=\"\"><a href=\"#why-133-seats-is-the-magic-number\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48 133 \u4e2a\u5e2d\u4f4d\u662f\u4e2a\u795e\u5947\u7684\u6570\u5b57<\/a><\/li><li class=\"\"><a href=\"#how-reliable-is-the-median-projection\">\u6885\u8fea\u6069\u9884\u6d4b\u6709\u591a\u53ef\u9760\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class=\"\"><a href=\"#what-could-still-stop-a-tisza-supermajority\">\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u963b\u6b62\u8482\u8428\u83b7\u5f97\u8d85\u7ea7\u591a\u6570\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class=\"\"><a href=\"#which-districts-matter-most\">\u54ea\u4e9b\u9009\u533a\u6700\u91cd\u8981<\/a><\/li><li class=\"\"><a href=\"#what-a-two-thirds-win-would-allow\">\u8d62\u5f97\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u5e2d\u4f4d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<\/a><\/li><li class=\"\"><a href=\"#faq-hungary-election-polls-2026\">\u5e38\u89c1\u95ee\u9898\uff1a2026 \u5e74\u5308\u7259\u5229\u5927\u9009\u6295\u7968<\/a><ul><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-the-latest-hungary-election-polls-say\">\u5308\u7259\u5229\u5927\u9009\u6700\u65b0\u6c11\u8c03\u7ed3\u679c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u65b0\u9884\u6d4b\u6765\u81ea<a href=\"https:\/\/median.hu\/2026\/04\/08\/ketharmados-tisza-gyozelmet-jelez-a-median-mandatumbecslese\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Medi\u00e1n<\/a>\uff0c\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u88ab\u516c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5308\u7259\u5229\u6700\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u5e2d\u4f4d\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e3a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8482\u8428\u515a\uff1a138-142 \u5e2d<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u83f2\u5fb7\u65af\uff1a49-55 \u5e2d<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Mi Haz\u00e1nk\uff1a5-6\u5e2d<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f7f Tisza \u6bd4\u5baa\u6cd5\u89c4\u5b9a\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u591a\u6570\u7ebf\u9ad8\u51fa 5 \u5230 9 \u5e2d\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u72ec\u7acb\u6c11\u8c03\u6700\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8be5\u9884\u6d4b\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e94\u9879\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u5408\u8ba1\u6837\u672c\u4e3a 5,000 \u540d\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fdc\u8fdc\u5f3a\u4e8e\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u5343\u4eba\u6c11\u8c03\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"why-133-seats-is-the-magic-number\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48 133 \u5e2d\u4f4d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u795e\u5947\u7684\u6570\u5b57<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5308\u7259\u5229\u56fd\u6c11\u8bae\u4f1a\u6709 199 \u4e2a\u5e2d\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u591a\u6570\u9700\u8981 133 \u4e2a\u5e2d\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8d8a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6761\u7ebf\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5c31\u6709\u6743<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u4fee\u6539\u5baa\u6cd5<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u91cd\u5199\u4e3b\u8981\u6cd5\u5f8b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4fee\u6539\u9009\u4e3e\u89c4\u5219<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6539\u9769\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u6784<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4efb\u547d\u6216\u66f4\u6362\u4e3b\u8981\u5b98\u5458<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u5feb\u6b27\u76df\u57fa\u91d1\u8c08\u5224<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u83f2\u5fb7\u5c14\u4ec0\u5728 2010 \u5e74\u540e\u591a\u6b21\u7528\u6765\u91cd\u5851\u5308\u7259\u5229\u5baa\u6cd5\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"how-reliable-is-the-median-projection\">\u6885\u8fea\u5b89\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6709\u591a\u53ef\u9760\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Medi\u00e1n\u662f\u5308\u7259\u5229\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u6700\u5f3a\u7684\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/hungarys-tisza-party-seen-winning-two-thirds-majority-parliament-median-2026-04-08\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8def\u900f\u793e\u7279\u522b\u6307\u51fa<\/a>\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u4e0a\u5c4a\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u6b63\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u6b27\u5c14\u73ed\u7684\u538b\u5012\u6027\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b83\u5f53\u65f6\u7565\u5fae\u5938\u5927\u4e86\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6700\u8fd1\u4e94\u6b21\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u6c47\u603b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u603b\u8ba1 5000 \u4eba\u7684\u6837\u672c<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7531\u4e09\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u547c\u53eb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8fdb\u884c<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5305\u62ec\u5730\u533a\u6388\u6743\u6a21\u578b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5176\u4e0d\u6613\u53d7\u5355\u4e00\u665a\u671f\u6c11\u8c03\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-could-still-stop-a-tisza-supermajority\">\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u963b\u6b62\u8482\u8428\u83b7\u5f97\u8d85\u7ea7\u591a\u6570\u7968\u7684\u56e0\u7d20<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u8482\u8428\u9886\u5148\u4f18\u52bf\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u4ecd\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u5176\u4f4e\u4e8e 133 \u5e2d\u3002\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6709<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u540e\u671f\u672a\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u9009\u6c11\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u83f2\u8fea\u4ec0\u515a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6295\u7968\u7387\u9ad8\u4e8e\u9884\u671f<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u533a\u7ea7\u9009\u7968\u5206\u88c2<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8fb9\u7f18\u5e2d\u4f4d\u7684\u6218\u672f\u6295\u7968\u5931\u8d25<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8f83\u5c0f\u5b9a\u5c45\u70b9\u7684\u6295\u7968\u8bef\u5dee<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5f02\u5e38\u9ad8\u7684\u90ae\u653f\u6216\u4fa8\u6c11\u52a8\u5458<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u5236\u5ea6\u5956\u52b1\u7684\u662f\u9ad8\u6548\u7387\u7684\u9009\u533a\u80dc\u51fa\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u539f\u59cb\u7684\u5168\u56fd\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u9009\u7968\u5206\u914d\u6548\u7387\u4e0d\u9ad8\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u6c11\u4f17\u4e2d\u9065\u9065\u9886\u5148\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5931\u53bb\u51e0\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u5e2d\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5206\u6790\u5bb6\u4eec\u4ecd\u7136\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5308\u7259\u5229\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u8d85\u7ea7\u591a\u6570\u7968\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/dailynewshungary.b-cdn.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/tisza-party-list-elections.webp\" alt=\"tisza party list elections\" class=\"wp-image-691473\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u8482\u8428\u515a\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u3002\u8be5\u515a\u771f\u7684\u80fd\u5728\u5468\u65e5\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u591a\u6570\u7968\u5417\uff1f\u7167\u7247\uff1aFacebook\/P\u00e9ter Magyar<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/peter.magyar.102\/posts\/pfbid02y6mZyypjS6HsGdtDPEsf2iCrfEhRZXFrPP7xdhHZymdKJD7WGzGsbLFFoiNTZvjFl?locale=hu_HU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Facebook\/P\u00e9ter Magyar<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"which-districts-matter-most\">\u54ea\u4e9b\u9009\u533a\u6700\u91cd\u8981<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u51b3\u5b9a\u8482\u8428\u515a\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u5e2d\u4f4d\u7684\u5730\u533a\u662f\u57ce\u4e61\u7ed3\u5408\u90e8\u548c\u90ca\u533a\u5916\u56f4\u5730\u5e26\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9700\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5730\u533a\u5305\u62ec<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5e03\u8fbe\u4f69\u65af\u5916\u56f4\u5730\u533a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f69\u65af\u53bf\u901a\u52e4\u5e26<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5de5\u4e1a\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u5982 Debrecen \u548c Gy\u0151r<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u90ca\u533a\u548c\u519c\u6751\u6df7\u5408\u533a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e2d\u578b\u5927\u5b66\u57ce<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c Tisza \u5c06\u5176\u5728\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u52bf\u5934\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u6709\u6548\u7684\u9009\u533a\u80dc\u5229\uff0c\u8d85\u7ea7\u591a\u6570\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u5982\u679c Fidesz \u5728\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u533a\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8272\uff0c\u4f18\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u7f29\u5c0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-a-two-thirds-win-would-allow\">\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u80dc\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u679c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u5168\u7403\u8bfb\u8005\u6700\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8482\u8428\u83b7\u5f97\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u591a\u6570\u7968\uff0c\u4f69\u7279-\u9a6c\u624e\u5c14\uff08P\u00e9ter Magyar\uff09\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fc5\u901f\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5baa\u6cd5\u4fee\u6b63\u6848<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u53cd\u8150\u8d25\u673a\u6784<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u68c0\u5bdf\u6539\u9769<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u516c\u5171\u91c7\u8d2d\u89c4\u5219<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5a92\u4f53\u6cd5\u4fee\u6539<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9009\u4e3e\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u9769<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u878d\u8d44<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6b27\u76df\u6cd5\u6cbb\u8c08\u5224<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c133 \u4e2a\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5e2d\u4f4d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6267\u653f\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u5c06\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc7\u7b80\u5355\u591a\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>\u9605\u8bfb<a href=\"https:\/\/dailynewshungary.com\/category\/politics\/hungary-parliamentary-elections-2026\/\">\u300a\u5308\u7259\u5229\u6bcf\u65e5\u65b0\u95fb\u300b<\/a>\u6709\u5173\u5373\u5c06\u4e3e\u884c\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u66f4\u591a<a href=\"https:\/\/dailynewshungary.com\/category\/politics\/hungary-parliamentary-elections-2026\/\">\u6587\u7ae0<\/a>\uff01<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"faq-hungary-election-polls-2026\">\u5e38\u89c1\u95ee\u9898\uff1a2026 \u5e74\u5308\u7259\u5229\u5927\u9009\u6295\u7968<\/h2>\n\n\n<div id=\"rank-math-faq\" class=\"rank-math-block\">\n<div class=\"rank-math-list \">\n<div id=\"faq-question-1775729197812\" class=\"rank-math-list-item\">\n<h3 class=\"rank-math-question \">Can Tisza really win two-thirds?<\/h3>\n<div class=\"rank-math-answer \">\n\n<p>Yes. The latest Medi\u00e1n estimate puts the party on 138\u2013142 seats, above the 133 threshold.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"faq-question-1775729205240\" class=\"rank-math-list-item\">\n<h3 class=\"rank-math-question \">How many seats are needed for two-thirds?<\/h3>\n<div class=\"rank-math-answer \">\n\n<p>133 out of 199 seats.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"faq-question-1775729217087\" class=\"rank-math-list-item\">\n<h3 class=\"rank-math-question \">Is Medi\u00e1n reliable?<\/h3>\n<div class=\"rank-math-answer \">\n\n<p>It is considered one of Hungary\u2019s most accurate independent pollsters.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"faq-question-1775729229351\" class=\"rank-math-list-item\">\n<h3 class=\"rank-math-question \">Could Fidesz still stop the supermajority?<\/h3>\n<div class=\"rank-math-answer \">\n\n<p>Yes. Strong rural turnout and late district swings could still reduce Tisza\u2019s seat count.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"faq-question-1775729655689\" class=\"rank-math-list-item\">\n<h3 class=\"rank-math-question \">Does a national lead automatically mean 2\/3?<\/h3>\n<div class=\"rank-math-answer \">\n\n<p>No. District efficiency is critical in Hungary\u2019s mixed voting system.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TL;DR\uff1a\u8482\u8428\u771f\u7684\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u591a\u6570\u7968\u5417\uff1f\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u6700\u65b0\u7684 Medi\u00e1n \u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8482\u8428\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5308\u7259\u5229 2026 \u5e74\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u8d62\u5f97\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7684\u5baa\u6cd5\u591a\u6570\u5e2d\u4f4d\u3002\u8be5\u6c11\u8c03\u673a\u6784\u9884\u8ba1\u4f69\u7279-\u9a6c\u624e\u5c14\u7684\u653f\u515a\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97 138-142 \u4e2a\u5e2d\u4f4d\uff0c\u8f7b\u677e\u8d85\u8fc7 199 \u540d\u8bae\u5458\u4e2d 133 \u4e2a\u5e2d\u4f4d\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6295\u7968\u7387\u3001\u9009\u533a\u6548\u7387\u548c\u540e\u671f\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6700\u540e\u51e0\u5929\u7f29\u5c0f\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002 \u8ddd\u79bb\u5308\u7259\u5229\u6295\u7968\u4ec5\u5269\u51e0\u5929\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u8482\u8428\u80fd\u5426\u51fb\u8d25\u7ef4\u514b\u6258-\u6b27\u5c14\u73ed\u7684\u83f2\u5fb7\u65af\u515a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8482\u8428\u80fd\u5426\u83b7\u5f97\u91cd\u5851\u56fd\u5bb6\u6cd5\u5f8b\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u4f53\u7cfb\u6240\u9700\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u8d85\u7ea7\u591a\u6570\u3002\u65b0\u7684\u6885\u8fea\u5b89\u5e2d\u4f4d\u9884\u6d4b\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7b54\u6848\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u4f69\u7279-\u9a6c\u624e\u5c14\u83b7\u5f97\u81ea\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u83f2\u5fb7\u65af\u515a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u538b\u5012\u6027\u4f18\u52bf\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u6388\u6743\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u9009\u4e3e\u5236\u5ea6\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5355\u51ed\u6c11\u8c03\u6570\u5b57\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bf4\u660e\u5168\u90e8\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5f53\u5730\u533a\u4e00\u7ea7\u7684\u6548\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u653e\u5927\u6216\u524a\u5f31\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u7684\u9886\u5148\u4f18\u52bf\u65f6\u3002 \u5308\u7259\u5229\u5927\u9009\u6700\u65b0\u6c11\u8c03\u7ed3\u679c \u6700\u65b0\u9884\u6d4b\u6765\u81eaMedi\u00e1n\uff0c\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u88ab\u516c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5308\u7259\u5229\u6700\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002 \u5176\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u5e2d\u4f4d\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e3a \u8fd9\u5c06\u4f7f Tisza \u6bd4\u5baa\u6cd5\u89c4\u5b9a\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u591a\u6570\u7ebf\u9ad8\u51fa 5 \u5230 9 \u5e2d\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u72ec\u7acb\u6c11\u8c03\u6700\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002 \u8be5\u9884\u6d4b\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e94\u9879\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u5408\u8ba1\u6837\u672c\u4e3a 5,000 \u540d\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fdc\u8fdc\u5f3a\u4e8e\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u5343\u4eba\u6c11\u8c03\u3002 \u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48 133 \u5e2d\u4f4d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u795e\u5947\u7684\u6570\u5b57 \u5308\u7259\u5229\u56fd\u6c11\u8bae\u4f1a\u6709 199 \u4e2a\u5e2d\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u591a\u6570\u9700\u8981 133 \u4e2a\u5e2d\u4f4d\u3002 \u8fd9\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8d8a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6761\u7ebf\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5c31\u6709\u6743 \u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u83f2\u5fb7\u5c14\u4ec0\u5728 2010 \u5e74\u540e\u591a\u6b21\u7528\u6765\u91cd\u5851\u5308\u7259\u5229\u5baa\u6cd5\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u529b\u91cf\u3002 \u6885\u8fea\u5b89\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6709\u591a\u53ef\u9760\uff1f Medi\u00e1n\u662f\u5308\u7259\u5229\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u6700\u5f3a\u7684\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u8def\u900f\u793e\u7279\u522b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u4e0a\u5c4a\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u6b63\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u6b27\u5c14\u73ed\u7684\u538b\u5012\u6027\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b83\u5f53\u65f6\u7565\u5fae\u5938\u5927\u4e86\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002 \u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff1a \u8fd9\u4f7f\u5176\u4e0d\u6613\u53d7\u5355\u4e00\u665a\u671f\u6c11\u8c03\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002 \u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u963b\u6b62\u8482\u8428\u83b7\u5f97\u8d85\u7ea7\u591a\u6570\u7968\u7684\u56e0\u7d20 \u5373\u4f7f\u8482\u8428\u9886\u5148\u4f18\u52bf\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u4ecd\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u5176\u4f4e\u4e8e 133 \u5e2d\u3002\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6709 \u7531\u4e8e\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u5236\u5ea6\u5956\u52b1\u7684\u662f\u9ad8\u6548\u7387\u7684\u9009\u533a\u80dc\u51fa\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u539f\u59cb\u7684\u5168\u56fd\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u9009\u7968\u5206\u914d\u6548\u7387\u4e0d\u9ad8\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u6c11\u4f17\u4e2d\u9065\u9065\u9886\u5148\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5931\u53bb\u51e0\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u5e2d\u4f4d\u3002 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