9500 Covid-deaths missing from Hungarian statistics, American researchers say

The experts argue that the disease has claimed much more lives than what is documented officially. In some countries, the actual number of victims could be over ten times the reported figures.

According to hvg.hu, researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington have analysed the number of deaths caused directly by Covid from March 2020 to the beginning of May 2021. According to the analysis published here, they took the pre-pandemic estimates of how many deaths would occur—comparing them with the actual number of deaths, calculated the “excess mortality” for each country. These figures were then adjusted so that they would not include deaths caused indirectly by the virus, such as people suffering from a different condition avoiding the hospital. Researchers also considered that the pandemic had decreased the prevalence of a number of mortality causes, e.g. traffic accidents.

• Read also: Is the record mortality rate caused by the poor health state of Hungarians?

As Index writes, the gap between the real and the reported numbers of victims is the lowest in Hungary:

according to the analysis, 1.3 times more people have passed away due to the disease than what the official data say.

In actual numbers, that would mean 37 177 pandemic-related fatalities up to the 2^nd of May, 9476 more than what was reported. At the peak of the second wave, there could have been as many as 60 “invisible victims” every day. According to the estimates, some countries have been hit much harder by the pandemic than what they acknowledged: in Kazakhstan, 14.5 times more people might have died from the disease, while the same factor in Egypt is calculated to be 12.6. In Belarus, officially, the rate of Covid mortality is 27.1 people per 100 000 citizens – however, according to IMHE, the accurate figures are 17 times higher. On a list comparing the number of Covid-related deaths per 100 000 citizens,

these findings would put Hungary in 16^th place overall and 7^th in the EU, contrary to previous reports, where Covid was said to be the most fatal in Hungary of all countries.

Researchers attribute the disparity between the actual numbers of victims and the official figures to the different approaches to keeping mortality statistics and hospitals being overwhelmed, resulting in some deaths being ascribed to other causes instead of Covid.

Read alsoHungarian healthcare workers overburdened – can they last until covid is over?

Source: hvg.hu, index.hu, healthdata.org