Poll results: Only three parties would enter Hungarian Parliament if election were held today

The ruling alliance of Fidesz and the Christian Democrats would win a 61 percent majority in parliament if elections were held this Sunday, according to a fresh poll by the pro-government Nézőpont Institute.

Only three parties would enter Hungarian Parliament, if…

In December, 38 percent (2.9 million) of the total adult population eligible to vote (about 7.67 million) sympathised with Fidesz, 25 percent with the Tisza Party (1.9 million), the same as in the previous month.

Among those who are certain or likely to vote, Fidesz-KDNP’s list would capture 47 percent of the vote in a general election. Fidesz’s nearest opposition rival, the Tisza Party, would get 37 percent, with the leftist Democratic Coalition just clearing the 5 percent threshold for seats in parliament.

According to Nézőpont’s model, Fidesz would win 74 electoral district races, giving it 121 seats in the 199-seat parliament. Tisza would win the remaining 32 constituencies, giving it 71 seats, with DK winning 6 and the ethnic German minority 1 seat.

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New constituency boundaries

The full picture also includes the fact that the percentages of the “most likely list result” are not the same as the distribution of seats in parliament, as individual constituencies play a key role in the Hungarian electoral system. The Nézőpont Institute has therefore modelled how the distribution of seats would evolve “this Sunday” after a hypothetical parliamentary election, taking into account historical electoral trends at the constituency level and the new constituency boundaries.

Taking the voting population as a whole, the ruling parties are backed by 38 percent of the electorate, with Tisza on 25 percent. The phone poll was carried out between December 9 and 11, with a sample of 1,000 adults.

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