Could PM Orbán have a big say in who leads the EU from 2024?

There are only nine months left until the 2024 European Parliament election campaigns. Will the Hungarian PM have a say in who leads the EU from 2024? Can we expect any big turns?

Portfolio writes that with arounf nine months to go until the 2024 European Parliament election, Ursula von der Leyen is launching her re-election campaign. However, it seems like the voters are not at the centre of the campaign. In Europe, Wednesday’s Commission presidential speech and the EP elections could be decisive. However, in Hungary, the campaign, which coincides with the municipal elections, is likely to be less prominent. Hungarian criticism and political traps will be a defining part of von der Leyen’s political game. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron could secure an important role for Paris if he plays his cards right.

Lead candidate

Ahead of the 2019 elections, a system of lead candidates has been introduced to raise the stakes in the EU elections. The idea was that by nominating candidates from different groups of parties, EU citizens could decide who would lead the European Commission. Thus, after election night, it seemed as if the leader of the European People’s Party, Manfred Weber, would be pleased to have the chance to take the presidency as the candidate of the largest EP group. However, the Hungarian government killed the lead candidate system by attacking Weber and putting Ursula von der Leyen in power. The government is now turning against her, advocating for a new lead candidate.

Politicians against the EU leader

Ursula von der Leyen may end up like Manfred Weber five years ago. Politico has already reported that a rival candidate might come from Paris, pointing toward Emmanuel Macron. On the other hand, a draft regulation has been tabled that would introduce restrictions on Chinese electric cars in the EU market. Hungary, in particular, should be concerned as the country is attracted significant battery investments in symbiosis with Chinese car manufacturers. It is almost certain that Viktor Orbán‘s government would not hesitate for a second to speak up against such an announcement by von der Leyen.

The question is how much Macron wants to take the top EU title after winning the European Central Bank and the internal markets commission. The outcome could also be influenced by how uncomfortable the French president will be if the Orbán government and various members of Fidesz-KDNP continue to criticise von der Leyen. A non-aggression pact would be pretty much disagreeable with Macron, as he is always seeking a middle ground.