Geologist says strong earthquake may hit Hungary soon
According to a scientific associate of the Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science of Sopron, István János Kovács, Hungary could be hit by a larger earthquake every 50 years. Taking the previous data into consideration, an earthquake of a magnitude of 5 or 6 may be imminent in our country.
István János Kovács gave a lecture on the first anniversary of the establishment of the Geodynamic Station. In the report prepared by members of the Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science, Topo-Transylvania and MTA FI Pannon LitH2Oscope, he detailed why the station was built, and the results of the first year’s research.
Are earthquakes predictable?
The exact time and place of an earthquake cannot be predicted. However, we can see the signs that precede these disastrous geological events by using certain methods.
The Pannonian Basin is the location of unique phenomena. After thorough research, the founders of the institute picked Badacsonytördemic as the best place for the station. Not only is it situated on the structural fault lines, but researchers also measured higher than average radon and carbon dioxin concentrations in the area. The experts can estimate an upcoming earthquake, even days before its occurrence, by detecting changes in the concentration level of the abovementioned chemical compounds. Since the opening of the station, they have recorded several small earth tremors.
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Looking back at the data from previous earthquakes and conducting statistical predictions can also help.
Since a larger earthquake can occur in every 50 years, taking the previous data into consideration, a significant tremor of a magnitude of 5 or 6 may be imminent in our country,
says István János Kovács. This was their main reason for building the station. Researchers measure the composition of the air and the concentration of the gases in the soil to tell the probability of an earthquake.
After a year in operation, the station lived up to its expectations. It successfully measured the 3.4-magnitude earthquake that hit Répcelak and Csepreg in July 2022. The two towns are about 80 kilometres away but are connected by a fault line. The Hungarian researchers have been constantly working on finding new methods to forecast geological events. They plan to extend the study and build another station on the Curvature Carpathians, working together with Romanian and Hungarian colleagues.
Source: VEOL, Sokszínű vidék
If you want to see earthquake tracking info, look up Dutchsinse. Very interesting graphics
Well, first of all thank you for sharing our results on your website in English. It is always good to know that new scientific discoveries can reach a wider audience here and abroad. We just would like to clarify while earthquake is a realistic risk in Hungary our home is relatively less threatened than some of the neighbouring countries. See of our institute’s declaration in Hungarian:
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In fact the station detected increasing CO2 content in the soil gas prior the Répcelak earthquakes (September 2021, July 2022) but it is a matter of further investigation whether this increased flux of CO2 is only related to stresses building up prior the earthquakes or to other factors (e.g. atmospheric, biological). You can find out more about our research on the following links:
lendulet.epss.hu
https://www.facebook.com/LitH2Oscope
Dear Mr Kovács, Thank you for notifying us about it. We will make some amends to the article shortly.