Hungarian forint on a roller-coaster: 400/EUR exchange rate realistic soon
Levente Tóth, the editor-in-chief of bank360.hu, shared his thoughts about the forint’s future in RTL Klub’s Reggeli show. Unfortunately, he could not be the bearer of good news.
According to rtl.hu, Mr Tóth said that the forint suffered an almost 10 percent weakening in the last few days. As a result, we have to pay HUF 390 for an euro instead of 370. On the other hand, no analysts said in 2022 that the forint would be below 400/EUR in 2023. He said forint was unexpectedly strong up until this week.
Mr Tóth highlighted the reality is around 390-400/EUR even if we do not like that currency exchange rate. He added provided this rate remains, we will suffer its consequences in the fuel prices and the prices of almost all imported goods. We wrote HERE about the continuously increasing fuel prices and its causes. One of them was the weak forint. Mr Tóth said the weakening’s first consequence would be the increasing fuel prices.
But where will the weakening stop? The analyst said a 430/EUR historic low exchange rate could only be reached provided something extraordinary happened. He added that the 400/EUR exchange rate cannot baulk a dinamic inflation decrease, which is good news. However, if the forint remains weak in the long run, that will have a negative effect on the one-digit inflation goal set to be met this year-end.
Forint weakening expected
On 3 August, the forint reached its 5-month low. In March, the Swiss and American bank crisis resulted in the weak forint showing how volatile the Hungarian national currency was. The Hungarian forint has been weakening for the second week now. The reason is the strengthening USD which regularly causes the weakening of the emerging country currencies.
According to the analyst centre of OTP, the euro exchange rate can be above 400, while in the case of dollar, the rate will be 375/USD. Rtl.hu argues that the Hungarian national bank will intervene if the trend worsens. That is because the weak forint generates inflation and weakens the Hungarian economy. In 2022, most analysts said the euro will be around 400 in 2023. Concerning that, the forint outperformed expectations in the last few months. Currently, the exchange rate is slightly below 390/EUR.
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1 Comment
Ugly.
Are you really SURPRISED ?
Key word growing in HUNGARY is Sustainability.
NOTHING is appearing – Economically & Financially that gives REASON – gives HOPE – that we, as a country, can control the down-ward “pressurized” trend, broadsheet – across the entire Hungarian economy.
It ALL will WORSEN.