Budapest, November 8 (MTI) – Output of Hungary’s industrial sector fell by an annual 3.7 percent in September, the Central Statistical Office (KSH) said on Tuesday. Consumer prices in Hungary rose by an annual 1 percent in October.
The decline was the same when adjusted for the number of work days during the period.
In the previous month, output jumped by an annual 11.1.
Output was down a seasonally and working-day-adjusted 3 percent month on month in September.
Output rose an annual 1.5 percent in January-September.
ING Bank chief analyst Peter Virovacz said September output was well under expectations for a 3 percent increase. The automotive sector, a key driver of industrial output in Hungary, may have been behind the fall, as could have a labour shortage, he said. The decline was surprising because Hungary’s PMI suggests a growing stock of orders, he added.
Takarekbank analyst Gergely Suppan said the decline was probably due to one-off factors, such as the switchover to a new model at Japanese carmaker Suzuki’s plant in Hungary. Output could pick up in the coming months, though it may slow again from December, when German carmaker Audi scales back production at its base in Hungary to make preparations for the introduction of a new model, he added. He put full-year industrial output growth around 1.5 percent.
Price growth accelerated from 0.6 percent in September, when CPI rose for the first time in five months.
In an assessment of the data, the National Bank of Hungary said the rise in inflation was mainly due to higher fuel prices, with higher oil prices and an increase in the excise tax on petrol and diesel contributing nearly equally.
Hungarian lawmakers earlier decided to link the excise tax content of vehicle fuel to global oil prices from October. If the price of Brent is under 50 US dollars per barrel, the content rises, and if it remains over that price threshold, the content is returned to earlier levels.
The fresh KSH data show food prices rose by 0.4 percent in October and the price of alcohol and tobacco climbed by 2 percent. Clothing prices were up 0.5 percent but consumer durable prices fell by 0.5 percent. Household energy prices were flat and prices in the category of goods which includes vehicle fuel rose 1.5 percent as the excise tax on petrol and diesel rose. The price of services increased 1.6 percent.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile fuel and food prices was up a seasonally adjusted 1.4 percent. Prices in a basket of goods and services used by pensioners grew by 0.9 percent.
In a month-on-month comparison, CPI went up by 0.6 percent. Food prices rose by 0.4 percent, alcohol and tobacco prices climbed 0.3 percent and clothing prices increased by 2.6 percent.
Core inflation was 0.2 percent and pensioners’ prices grew by 0.5 percent month-on-month.
ING Bank chief analyst Peter Virovacz said headline inflation was a little higher than market expectations, but this could not be called a surprise.
The Economy Ministry said the fresh data were in line with the government’s projection for average annual inflation of around 0.4 percent.