New poll: Orbán should brace for crushing defeat as Péter Magyar eyes constitutional rewrite

A new poll suggests Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party could secure a two-thirds constitutional majority—or even four-fifths—if the latest Medián survey holds true. The opposition challenger boasts such a commanding lead, political analyst Gábor Török declares, that the election is all but decided. Orbán’s camp dismisses the figures as laughable, which also underscore that the government’s lavish handouts have failed to sway party preferences.

Handouts fail to move the needle?

Months ago, Viktor Orbán and his government unveiled a slew of measures, all timed for payout in the final weeks before polling day. Members of the armed forces—police and soldiers—received “weapon money” equivalent to six months’ pay; pensioners got a 13th-month payment plus a week’s worth of a 14th (totalling 1.25 months’ pension). From January, the family tax allowance rose, and the circle of tax-exempt mothers expanded further.

Yet Medián’s data indicate these gestures have barely registered with Hungarian voters. Their latest representative telephone poll, conducted between 18 and 23 February, shows Tisza leading by 11 points (42% to 31%) among the full population, and by a staggering 20 points (55% to 35%) among decided, certain voters. Only Mi Hazánk would scrape into parliament; DK and MKKP languish at 2% each. Gathering the 500 supporter endorsements per constituency proves a Herculean task for these three, reports suggest—convincing people to sign remains tough, even though multiple candidates can be backed since 2014.

Tisza’s relentless rise

If Medián’s numbers are even roughly accurate, they herald a Tisza supermajority. The poll suggests public sentiment has shrugged off not only the smear attempt via a sex video targeting Péter Magyar, but also the Göd Samsung factory scandal.

One poll does not a trend make, of course. Yet Telex has aggregated results from seven major institutes—including the government-friendly Nézőpont—and the trajectory is clear: Tisza surges ahead, while Fidesz peaked in mid-January and has since plateaued or dipped slightly.

Bettors pile into Tisza victory

Odds have shifted dramatically on Polymarket, the popular betting site banned in Hungary after our coverage. In mid-January, wagers favoured Tisza 53-47; now it’s 59-39, per Török.

On the Medián findings, Török added that if accurate, Tisza’s win is assured; come May, the prime minister will no longer be Viktor Orbán. Such a lead cannot be overturned in mere weeks, and Medián simply doesn’t err by that margin.

Seeing the numbers, Péter Magyar spoke of a two-thirds triumph but urged caution: the “vilest, most deceitful attacks and smears” from Fidesz are yet to come.

Orbán, meanwhile, branded Medián’s data “ridiculous” in a dedicated post—an unprecedented public spat from a prime minister with a pollster, unseen in 16 or even 20 years. Both he and Magyar are gearing up for mass rallies on 15 March; Orbán signalled continued campaigning and called for unity.

Hungary goes to the polls on 12 April—46 days away.

If you missed our previous coverages concerning the 2026 general elections:

• Monty Python star John Cleese rebukes Orbán over Russia ties and 2026 elections
• False-flag military operation linked to Russians could destabilise Hungary ahead of 2026 election?