Russia expert on the Hungarian PM’s visit to Moscow: Putin made a fool out of Orbán

Viktor Orbán’s attempt to act as a mediator with his “peace mission” has ended in failure. During the Hungarian Prime Minister’s visit to Moscow, Vladimir Putin made it clear that the war in Ukraine would end on Russia’s terms. Orbán’s trip thus concluded as a tragicomedy, according to a Hungarian expert on Russian politics.

Viktor Orbán visited Moscow last week as part of his “peace mission”, sparking a significant diplomatic outcry among European politicians. The first stop of the peace mission was Kyiv, which was a success. However, “in Moscow, they made a fool out of Viktor Orbán,” writes András Rácz, a Hungarian expert on Russia, in a recent Facebook post.

Kyiv: A successful stop for the PM

Rácz explains that Orbán’s visit to Kyiv at the beginning of the week, despite being organised rather quickly, was a success. As he puts it in his post, “It is only possible to organise a meeting of heads of state and government in such a short time if both sides really want it – and this time both sides really wanted it.”

Granted, Orbán’s peace plan presented to the Ukrainians was, according to Rácz, “on the level of someone announcing that he has invented hot water.” How realistic is it, the researcher continues, that instead of the key players in international politics, “the Hungarian prime minister will come up with a solution out of the blue, that no one has ever thought of AND it works.” Nonetheless, in a show of diplomacy, “Orbán got to say what he wanted to say, and the Ukrainians did not laugh at him,” writes Rácz.

Perhaps more importantly, Orbán and Zelensky had a lengthy one-on-one conversation, during which they discussed economic issues. While relations between the two leaders remained strained, with no joint press conference and no signing of a joint statement, the meeting signals a possibility that “important things can start happening, from improving the language rights of the Hungarian minority to opening new border crossings. Nothing has been decided, nothing is guaranteed, nothing is set in stone yet – but it’s a good start.”

Moscow: “Halfway between ridiculous and tragic”

Rácz takes a more critical tone on Orbán’s visit to Moscow. The meeting was organised in a similarly short time, but unlike the meeting with Zelensky, the Hungarian government kept it secret from its allies until the last minute. “This attempt at secrecy,” writes Rácz, “has only resulted in one thing: it has seriously damaged the already not very steely European and American image of Hungary and Hungarian foreign policy.”

Moreover, as the expert sees it, Orbán was seriously humiliated by Putin during the meeting at multiple points: at the press conference, Putin was the first to speak, effectively spelling out his terms on Ukraine, “and Orbán sat there, scalded, without a word about his great little ‘peace plan’. In fact, […] Orbán didn’t even talk about his ‘plan’ that he presented in Kyiv.”

“and Orbán sat there, scalded, without a word about his great little ‘peace plan’. In fact, […] Orbán didn’t even talk about his ‘plan’ that he presented in Kyiv.”

But Putin humiliated Orbán right from the beginning. “Putin’s fifth (!) sentence was ‘We are aware that you represent the European Union here’’. This, as Rácz points out, was of course not true, but it did force Orbán into a defensive communication position. In contrast, Putin had an excellent opportunity to convey to his domestic audience, but also to the international community, as the researcher puts it, “See, Russia is not isolated, the Council of the EU’s President is right here.”

What was the point of the visit to Moscow?

The expert concludes that “the visit to Moscow really did not have any concrete benefits. In Kyiv, a number of quite important things were agreed to start – but nothing of the sort happened in Moscow. It was all for Putin’s benefit.” There is no explanation for the visit to Russia based on any Hungarian national interest. In contrast, Putin was given the opportunity to repeat his ultimatum at the press conference with Orbán.

Rácz lists four possible explanations for the trip:

• Orbán is serving Moscow as a Russian agent against Ukraine, the European Union, and NATO
• Orbán is convinced that the war will end in a Russian victory and total Ukrainian annihilation and is ready to switch his system of values and alliances to be on the winning side at the end of the war.
• Orbán believes that Donald Trump will win the upcoming US presidential election and will be able to bring peace to Ukraine. “Ergo, Orbán will try to look like a prophet, as he did in 2015 during the migration crisis.”

And finally:

“The fourth possible explanation is that the prime minister REALLY believes that he is influential enough that he will actually be able to mediate between the warring parties. Despite the fact that he leads a small, weak country in a catastrophic economic and social situation, utterly divided and completely isolated within its own federal system (the EU Presidency will not change this – especially after the visit to Moscow). This would mean that the Prime Minister is now completely and utterly out of touch with reality. In other words, he has gone mad.”

Read also:

Putin to Orbán: If Ukraine wants peace, it has to capitulate

Orbán to Putin: We cannot feel secure

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