Orbán cabinet will continue to block EUR 45 billion loan scheme for Ukraine until the US elections
A lot depends on who will win the election in the United States this November. PM Viktor Orbán and his government attached Hungary’s fate to Trump’s victory, which is strange in our history. If Trump wins, Orbán will triumph not only in Hungary but also in Europe. And it seems the Orbán cabinet will practically boycott a huge EU loan for Ukraine until the election results arrive.
Hungary regularly votes against EU decisions
According to Euronews, Hungary confirmed that it would not decide about the basis of a EUR 45 billion loan for Ukraine until the 5 November presidential elections in the United States. The loan would be covered by the unexpected profit of the Russian central bank’s frozen assets, so the loan’s basis is not the European taxpayers’ money. That basis would be completed with US, Japanese, and Canadian financial sources to reach EUR 45 billion.
The United States is concerned about the ambitious plan’s long-term sustainability. That is because all EU member states must renew the anti-Russia sanctions every six months. If a member state vetoes or liberates that financial background, the entire project freezes.
The weakest link is Hungary in that regard. The Orbán cabinet regularly uses its veto right in the European Council. For example, they exempted Patriarch Kirill, one of the strongest religious supporters of Putin’s war in Ukraine, from sanctions. Euronews writes that Hungary uses its veto to favour the Orbán cabinet’s and even Putin’s interests.
Hungary gave the green light for the loan scheme this week
To dispel the doubts of Washington, Brussels proposed to increase the anti-Putin sanctions’ renewal time from 6 months to 36 months, so the program’s stability could be granted.
All EU member states were in a rush to accept the loan scheme as soon as possible. The efforts were successful. As we wrote in THIS article, on Wednesday, the Council of Europe agreed on the financial aid package for Ukraine. Since Hungary is the President of the EU, currently, the agreement was reached under Hungary’s leadership.
No decision about the prolongation of the sanctions until 5 November
However, the big question was not the acceptance of Ukraine’s theoretic help, but to solidify the financial leg of it. And in that regard, no steps have been taken forward yet.
Euronews said the Orbán cabinet would decide about the prolongation of the sanctions only after the American presidential election. The acceptance of the loan scheme needed only a qualified majority in the Council of Europe. However, the loan’s fundament is the frozen assets of the Russian central bank. Those financial assets can only remain frozen if Hungary votes for them because the decision needs unanimity.
The Hungarian government still believes that decision can wait until 5 November, Mihály Varga, Hungary’s finance minister, made it clear this week in Luxembourg. Without deciding on the sanctions, the money support programme for Ukraine cannot start.
Varga believes the two presidential candidates represent two opposing scenarios concerning the war in Ukraine. Trump would seek peace while Kamala Harris would continue to support Ukraine’s war efforts.
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