New analysis: did Orbán expect more from Trump?

Unusual developments, contradictory messaging, and increasingly strange campaign dynamics are shaping the final stretch of the elections. According to a recent analysis of Péter Krekó, not only are political power relations shifting unexpectedly, but there are also signs suggesting possible foreign influence.

Campaign dynamics appear to be shifting

As elections approach, it is typically the incumbent government that gains momentum. This time, however, the opposite seems to be happening. The more intense phase of the campaign has so far failed to deliver a breakthrough for Fidesz and Orbán, while the Tisza Party has managed to strengthen its position. This is particularly surprising, as Fidesz has traditionally been effective at mobilising voters towards the end of campaigns.

“The end of the campaign is still ahead of us, but it is surprising that the more intense campaign period has so far favoured Tisza rather than Fidesz,” said Péter Krekó.

It is also striking that previously effective fear-based messaging – particularly around war – now appears to be less impactful. Voters’ attention seems to be increasingly shifting towards everyday concerns.

Foreign influence: more questions than answers

According to the analyst, several signs suggest that foreign actors may be attempting to influence political developments. Although the background of such operations is difficult to prove, certain events – such as the interception of a Ukrainian cash courier – are highly unusual in the context of Hungarian political practice.

“Such types of actions have not really been used by Russia beyond the post-Soviet region so far; this therefore indicates an escalation of Russian influence.”

There is also speculation that certain campaign elements may be inspired by or modelled on Russian practices. These include AI-generated content and the use of fake profiles on social media platforms of Orbán to amplify specific narratives.

Information chaos as a strategy

One of the most notable features of Orbán’s current campaign is the abundance of contradictory messages. Government communication often presents claims that are difficult to reconcile, which may appear to be a mistake at first glance – but could in fact be a deliberate strategy.

According to the analyst, this is “information chaos”, where voters become overwhelmed by conflicting narratives:

“This is information chaos, when you are completely lost in the abundance of information and contradictory narratives: the calculation is that the sense of uncertainty caused by this chaos will ultimately benefit the leader in power, because he becomes the only stable point in the world.”

Why the anti-Ukraine narrative is not working

Although anti-Ukraine messaging is a central element of the campaign, it does not appear to be delivering the expected political gains. One reason may be internal contradictions in the communication: Ukraine is portrayed both as a weak, failing state and as a powerful threat.

In addition, a significant portion of voters perceive the conflicts as being provoked by the Hungarian government itself. For the public, issues such as the cost of living, corruption, and healthcare remain the top priorities.

Could there be a last-minute twist?

Based on current trends, it is difficult to predict what could significantly alter the balance of power in the final phase of the campaign. Some believe that only an extraordinary event – such as the release of compromising material – could change the situation.

“As they say, if a gun appears on stage, sooner or later it will be fired: the kompromat that is on the table will eventually become public.”

It is also possible that narratives built during Orbán’s campaign could later be used to question the election results. Political tensions, therefore, may persist not only until election day but beyond, concluded the Political Capital analyst.

If you missed it:

• Why record overseas and transfer voting registrations could boost Hungary’s Tisza Party