Analysis: EU set for frequent deadlock after establishment parties suffer losses

In the European elections of 23–26 May, establishment parties have suffered considerable losses, while nationalist, eurosceptic parties have made major gains, leaving the European Parliament more fragmented than ever.

Accorsing to Sastre Consulting, the parliament’s potential to fulfil its long-held role as a key driver of further integration has suffered greatly. This will reduce the EU’s ability to pursue major reform, pass legislation or speak with a unified voice, creating serious obstacles to institutional preparation for the next global recession. The resulting uncertainty means that markets are unlikely to pick up in the medium term.

What next?

Contrary to sensationalist headlines, the EU does not face imminent collapse. Rather, the next five years will see frequent deadlock, as parliamentary divisions hamper decision-making. The EU can be expected to generally act sluggishly and frequently become embroiled in internal disagreements. The divergent interests of the various forces in parliament are likely to dilute any legislation passed. Britain’s results signal that a managed Brexit is unlikely to be achieved before the current 31 October deadline. There is a good chance of a further extension, but a no-deal exit is also looking more likely than ever. 

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The long-term balance of power within the European Parliament has been upset. The two traditionally dominant forces – the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) – have both suffered significant losses. For the first time ever, their combined totals account for less than half of seats. The biggest increase has been enjoyed by the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), while the Greens have also enjoyed large gains. 

As anticipated, this election has seen significant gains for nationalist and eurosceptic anti-establishment parties. In total, these parties now have almost a third of MEPs. Were they to unify into a single group, they would be the largest in parliament. However, they remain divided between different blocs, a fact that partly reflects disagreement over policy issues such as Russia and trade.

Despite the anti-establishment parties’ divisions, their large numbers mean that it will no longer be possible to exclude them from the European Parliament’s cross-party consensus-building processes. The new grouping led by Italian interior minister Matteo Salvini will play a particularly important role in co-ordinating some of Europe’s most important nationalist parties.

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Nationalist gains spell disruption and deadlock

 Predictions that this result may herald the EU’s demise are misplaced. Popular support for the EU is the highest it has been since the 1980s, with some two thirds of citizens viewing the Union positively. An EU-wide increase in turnout bolsters the legitimacy of parliament and of the EU project more broadly.

As nationalist parties have gained popularity, they have softened their euroscepticism. The vast majority of nationalists no longer favour leaving the Union or even dropping the euro. 

However, their desire to lessen the EU’s role in governance will manifest itself in attempts to reduce the overall volume of EU legislation. They will block mainstream parties’ initiatives where they can, stalling reform efforts, international agreements and the EU’s general day-to-day functioning. 

• Nationalists may be able to hamper the election of the presidents of the European Parliament and the European Commission, as well as the formation of the Commission itself. Other important appointments due this year, such as the president of the European Council, the president of the European Central Bank and the high representative for foreign affairs may also be delayed. 

• EU trade may be disrupted, as many nationalist parties – as well as some left-wing parties – will seek to block free-trade deals. This opposition may extend to a possible deal with post-Brexit Britain.

• Nationalists will obstruct attempts to regulate social media or combat “fake news”, fearing that such measures might curtail their own campaigning. Parliament is unlikely to adopt any new legislation similar to its recent Copyright Directive, which requires websites to take greater responsibility for copyrighted material published on their platforms. Nationalist opposition will hinder the digital single market project.

• Nationalists will oppose any consolidation of EU foreign policy. Although they are divided over foreign policy issues, they are united in their opposition to the EU emerging as a major foreign-policy actor.