Serious consequences expected after refinery fire in Hungary: One neighbouring country could face the worst energy crisis
The fire that broke out at MOL’s Danube Refinery in Százhalombatta on Monday night could shake not only Hungary’s but the entire region’s energy supply. According to an analysis by Erste, about 40% of the refinery’s distillation capacity may be lost for several months, significantly hindering the company’s oil product manufacturing and exports.
The greatest damage occurred in the AV3 unit, which has an annual processing capacity of three million tonnes and is the largest part of the refinery. MOL now faces two options: either increase fuel imports or temporarily draw on strategic reserves to maintain domestic supply. The Austrian company OMV was once forced to take similar measures following the accident at its Schwechat refinery.
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According to Tamás Pletser, Erste’s oil and gas industry analyst, the Százhalombatta incident will have a manageable impact on the Hungarian market. However, in the wider region, one country could end up in a particularly difficult situation: Serbia.
Serbia’s energy supply under dual pressure
The Serbian energy system is already in a critical condition: on 8 October, U.S. sanctions came into effect against the country’s only refinery-owning energy company, NIS, because of its Russian ownership background: Gazprom Neft controls a 45% stake. As a result, NIS is unable to import crude oil, and if the situation is not resolved soon, its refinery in Pančevo may have to shut down within a month and a half.
Since MOL is now expected to be unable to export sufficient volumes of oil products due to the fire, Serbia may find itself in even greater trouble. The shutdown of the Pančevo refinery could practically paralyse the country’s entire fuel supply.
Belgrade also faces pressure on the gas front
The situation is further aggravated by the fact that Gazprom has not renewed Serbia’s three-year natural gas supply contract and will only provide gas until the end of the year. With no viable alternative sources of supply, this poses a serious threat to Serbia’s energy security.
Meanwhile, the United States is applying strong pressure on Aleksandar Vučić’s government to bring NIS and the Gazprom-owned transport assets under state control. If that occurs, Washington would lift the sanctions, granting Serbia access to alternative supply sources. However, according to Erste’s analyst, the Belgrade leadership is not yet willing to distance itself from Russia due to political, emotional, and legal considerations.
Pletser warns that Serbia is therefore facing a grave choice: if it continues to stand by Russia, its energy supply may collapse — but if it turns its back on Moscow, Vučić will have to confront his own ultranationalist voter base.
MOL shares also decline
Following the news of the fire and its potential consequences, MOL’s shares fell by one and a half percent, bringing the oil company’s stock price back to its level at the beginning of the year, Világgazdaság reported. Restoration work and ensuring supply could take several months.
The Százhalombatta refinery incident
As reported earlier this morning, a fire broke out at MOL’s oil refinery in Százhalombatta on Monday evening. The blaze started during the night in the AV3 unit of the Danube Refinery and was soon localised. Fortunately, no injuries were reported, and the exact cause of the accident is still under investigation. Photos and videos can be viewed in this article.
What a perfect opportunity to pivot to non-Russian origination crude! Currently running, four out of five barrels from the Százhalombatta refinery are … Russian oil derived.
Olyan hülye vagy, hogy mutogatni kéne 🤣. Az Európai finomítókban felhasznált olaj 80%-a orosz olaj, csak nem közvetlenül az oroszoktól veszik (mint mi), hanem például indián keresztül. Másik marhaság: még hogy pompás lehetőség az átállásra 🤣 milyen átállás, te félkegyelmű? Hát a villanyszámlát nem tudnád kifizetni, ha elengednék a kis kezed és európai áron kéne vásárolnod, aztán az éhező kölködnek majd magyarázhatnád a sötét szobákban, hogy miért nem tudsz egy kabátot venni neki és miért kell gyalog menni iskolába 10 km-t. Mert ugye a télikabát is olajból van, és azt használja a szállító is, és te sem fogod tudni megvenni az amerikai vagy norvég olajból előállított benzint kisfiam, mert qrvára csöves cserkész vagy, hogy 5-8€/l áron tudj tankolni. Ez nem alternatíva, hanem gazdasági öngyilkosság, még egy német gazdaságnak is, Magyarország konkrétan csődbe menne, Szerbia pedig mégcsak nem is álmodhat róla, hogy egyáltalán bele tudna kezdeni. Vagy többet szedj abból amit szedsz, vagy hagydd abba, de így nem lesz jó
COULD be reasoned, word SABOTAGE – in it ///
The name – Victor Mihaly. Orban – especially knowledge that grows of his “gofer” role to Putins Russia, the proposed up-coming visit of Putin and D. R. Trump to Budapest will ATTRACT a “variation” and usage in OPPOSING the name – rightfully of Victor Mihaly Orban and his Fidesz Government.
I don’t mind seeing the ultranationalists in Serbia put under pressure. If you really want to ally yourself with Russia what are you doing applying to join the EU and for that matter why is Hungary in the EU when it ally’s itself with Russia? Serbia has been getting billions of euros of free money from the EU since 2014 as well as billions in loans and investments. It’s time to stop buying Russian oil if you want your free money and membership in the organization. Otherwise forget being a member and instead make your alliance with the Russian Nazis.
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