Orbán saw war in Ukraine ‘could happen’ two weeks before its outbreak

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán says his Moscow visit made him realise Russians will sooner or later counter with force the potential Ukranian NATO membership. In a conversation with the former Chancellor of Austria, Orbán outlined his vision for the future of the European Union and declared against Ukrainian EU and NATO memberships.

The former Chancellor of Austria, Wolfgang Schüssel, and Viktor Orbán met in the library of the Carmelite Monastery, home of the PM’s Office in Budapest, index.hu spotted. The conversation was published in the European Voices magazine, which called it a “controversial debate”.

Orbán outlined three key issues in the future of the European Union

Schüssel started the conversation by asserting that Central Europe will become a key region in Europe in the next ten years. But this process will raise important questions that need to be answered, such as the issue of military security, finances in the EU, the organisation’s structure, and the upkeep of democracy and the rule of law in the region.

Reflecting on his points, Orbán was much more sceptical, saying:

“I do not doubt the positive evolution in Central Europe, including Austria. But I have more doubts concerning the prosperity of the Western part of Europe. The big question is: are we able to keep the whole continent together in one Union?”

He emphasised that if Western Europe wishes to develop dynamically, it has to reform its welfare state model: people need to be provided jobs, and “access […] welfare only through achievement”.

Second, the West needs to reconcile its views on freedom and security, as in those countries, the two are seen as contradictory concepts. Public security must be strengthened, especially in big cities.

Third, according to Orbán, Western countries must control their borders. If they do not,

“and illegal migration continues at the current pace, this will have a lot of unpleasant consequences, like parallel societies and cultural uncertainties.”

On the question of Ukraine, the two politicians starkly disagreed

Turning to issues of security, Wolfgang Schüssel asked Orbán about the war in Ukraine, pressing whether he expected the outbreak of aggression, especially since the Prime Minister had many contacts with Vladimir Putin. Orbán replied:

“For long, long months I did not. But two weeks prior to the eruption of the conflict, I was in Moscow and saw that it could happen. When I made my report back to the NATO secretary general after my visit, I told him that we are in trouble because the Russians think that sooner or later they have to manage the conflict with Ukraine by force if Ukraine wants to join NATO.”

When it comes to the onset of the war, the two politicians had different views with Orbán highlighting European failures in its prevention, while Schüssel emphasised that the West did everything it could. Moreover, Schüssel declared against the option of a ceasefire, arguing for the continued support of Ukraine with military aid as well as immediate talks for the accession of Ukraine to the European Union and NATO.

Orbán countered that Russia would never accept Ukraine to be a member of NATO. Furthermore, he does not think the EU has the capability to aid Ukraine to a military victory.

On one point, the opinions of the former Chancellor and the Hungarian PM converged: they both agreed that Europe has to spend more funds on security in the future. Viktor Orbán underlined that he feels that the EU should focus on its economic and security policy more, and less on issues of politics and values.

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Source: Index