Currency concerns: Is the EUR/HUF 500 exchange rate approaching in Hungary? – Here’s what the experts say
The Hungarian forint continues to grapple with a weak exchange rate, following a turbulent 2024 that saw its value plummet by over 10% against the euro. With global economic shifts and domestic uncertainties in play, analysts warn of further challenges ahead, while holding out hope for potential surprises that could reshape the forint’s trajectory this year.
Forint faces continued pressure
As Pénzcentrum writes, the Hungarian forint faced a challenging 2024, marked by a significant weakening of its exchange rate against major currencies. Starting the year at 382 EUR/HUF, it depreciated to over 412 EUR/HUF by December—a drop exceeding 10% within 12 months. This trend continued into early 2025, with the euro exchange rate rising by an additional two forints on the year’s first trading day, while the forint hit a two-year low against the dollar. Despite these setbacks, economic analysts consulted by Pénzcentrum have provided cautious reassurance. While the 500 EUR/HUF exchange rate seems unlikely this year, they stress the importance of monitoring global political shifts and currency trends closely, as further fluctuations in the exchange rate remain possible.
Global influences and domestic issues
The Hungarian forint faced a turbulent 2024, depreciating significantly against major currencies, with external factors playing a key role. Senior Analyst István Madár from Portfolio highlighted that the exchange rate pressures stemmed from global influences, such as the resilience of the US economy in a high-interest rate environment and Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, which are set to bolster the dollar and weaken emerging market currencies like the forint.
Domestic issues, including economic uncertainties, EU funding disputes, and high debt burdens, further compounded the forint’s underperformance, particularly against regional currencies like the Polish zloty. While forecasts suggest the forint may face continued weakening, analysts note that much of the negative outlook is already priced in, raising the potential for positive surprises in the exchange rate, particularly if economic or political conditions improve unexpectedly.
Expert’s prediction
The Hungarian forint’s exchange rate remains a focal point as 2025 unfolds, with Zoltán Árokszállási, Director of MBH’s Centre for Analysis, highlighting key influences. Despite a current account surplus, a meaningful real interest rate of 6.5%, and declining public debt, the forint continues to struggle, with the euro exchange rate exceeding 410 forints early in the year. Factors such as US tariffs impacting Hungarian exports and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies, which support a strong dollar, are adding pressure to the forint.
Árokszállási predicts that the forint is unlikely to strengthen significantly, with annual averages expected around 405–415 forints per euro, and a return below 400 deemed improbable. With inflation risks tied to further weakening, Hungary’s central bank is expected to remain cautious, limiting the scope for additional interest rate cuts to stabilise the exchange rate.
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