Forint strengthened, but the EUR/HUF exchange rate may exceed 500 in 2025
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After Donald Trump’s victory, the Hungarian forint started to fall and reached even 412/EUR, which was a 2-year maximum. The same trend was happening in the case of the dollar-forint exchange rate level. Later, the forint began to strengthen, and now it is at 407/EUR.
One euro may cost 500 forints in 2025
According to experts discussing the future of the Hungarian economy and the forint at the Portfolio Investment Day 2024 conference, Trump’s economic policy would cause three times as big budget deficit than the Democrat administration. The consequence will be higher interest rates siphoning money from emerging markets like Hungary and the entire Central European region.
In trade, Trump may initiate new trade wars, which would also harm Europe and strengthen the dollar. Péter Virovácz, a leading analyst of ING Bank, said that by mid-2025, the dollar-euro rate can become 0.98, which would cause a euro/forint rate above 500.
The Hungarian National Bank remained calm
Although Portfolio wrote about a possible base interest rate increase, the Hungarian National Bank remained calm despite the weakening forint.
The Monetary Council of the National Bank of Hungary discussed a single option, to keep the base rate on hold, in line with a “careful, patient and stability-oriented approach”, at a monthly policy meeting in October, the minutes from the meeting show, MTI wrote.