Fitch Ratings gives a devastating outlook for Hungary’s economy: low GDP growth, high inflation
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Hungary’s sovereign rating with a stable outlook, the National Economy Ministry told MTI late Friday. However, the American credit rating agency gave a gloomy outlook for the Hungarian economy’s GDP growth and the expected inflation rate, contrary to the Orbán cabinet’s figures.
All three big rating agencies put Hungary in the investment grade category, the ministry said. According to hvg.hu, despite the Hungarian government’s 3.1% GDP growth expectation, Fitch Ratings wrote only about 0.7% for 2025 and the Hungarian economy may start growing more significantly only in 2026. Furthermore, the American agency added that inflation in Hungary would be around 4.6% in 2025 and 2026, well above the government’s 3% target.
Here’s the ministry’s reaction: war, sanctions, uncertainties
The ministry faulted decision-makers in Brussels for adopting a failed economic policy, supporting the war instead of peace, and giving all available funding to Ukraine, while the European economy faces growing challenges. The government is working to shield Hungarians from the negative external environment and strengthen the economy, allocating resources to support families and SMEs, it added.
In spite of pressure from Brussels, the government is implementing Europe’s biggest family-friendly tax cut programme, while taking firm steps against unjustified price increases, the ministry said.
At the same time, the government continues to preserve fiscal stability and exercise strict fiscal discipline, maintaining its commitment to reduce state debt and the budget deficit, it said. In May and June, budget revenue was boosted by a HUF 110bn dividend paid by Liszt Ferenc International operator Budapest Airport and a HUF 200bn dividend by state-owned energy group MVM, it added.
Firm foundations
Hungary’s economy stands on firm foundations, confirmed by the latest data showing employment at close to 4.7 million and a record low number of job-seekers, the ministry said. Real wages have climbed for over a year and a half, and the tourism sector is set to have a record year in 2025, it added.
Confidence in Hungary is reflected in bond issues on international markets, most recently a EUR 1 billion security issued by the Hungarian Development Bank (MFB) that drew outstanding interest, the ministry said.
The ministry highlighted stimulus programmes such as the Demján Sándor Programme for scaling up SMEs that will pump over HUF 1,400bn into the economy.
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