Exceptional rainfall expected to affect the Danube in Austria and Hungary in the coming days
Austria is preparing for exceptional rainfall in the coming days, particularly in the Danube catchment areas, which is also expected to affect Hungary, according to Telex.
The heavy rainfall is forecast to cause a dramatic rise in water levels along the Hungarian stretch of the Danube, where levels are currently much lower than usual. In Budapest, where the water level is currently just 1370 mm, experts predict a sharp increase to 5650 mm by 17th September.
The situation is even more severe at Nagybajcs, where the current water level of 1830 mm is expected to surge to 6000 mm within six days. While these forecasts may change due to weather variability, the overall trend indicates rapidly rising water levels that could lead to significant flooding.
Experts warn that the rapid rise in water levels could trigger flood alert level 1 at Nagybajcs as early as 15th September, with level 2 expected to be reached just two days later. In Budapest, the first alert level is set at 6200 mm, a threshold that would necessitate the closure of the city’s lower quays. Based on current projections, water levels in the capital are likely to surpass 5650 mm.
The anticipated flooding is mainly due to the extreme rainfall forecast for the coming days. Average daily rainfall is expected to reach 35.1 mm at the Inn, 63.4 mm at the Traun and Enns, 71.6 mm in the Vienna Basin, and 69.4 mm at the Morava — all significantly higher than typical levels for this time of year.
Austrian weather forecasting sites have been issuing warnings about the potential for severe flooding, emphasising the uncertainty of how the precipitation will manifest. A key factor is whether the expected precipitation will fall as rain or snow at higher altitudes. If it falls as snow, it will not immediately contribute to river levels.
Recent flooding of the Danube in Budapest
The potential for significant flooding comes just months after the last flood event on the Danube, which occurred in June, with Budapest and other areas along the river experiencing considerable challenges. The previous flood event was recorded last Christmas, marking a period of increased flood activity after nearly a decade of relatively stable conditions since the record-setting flood of 2013.
During the June flood, over 500 kilometres of Hungary were under flood alert, with large areas of vegetated floodplains inundated. At that time, the vegetation in these floodplains was at its seasonal peak, enhancing the land’s resistance to floodwaters and slowing the incoming water, which allowed the flood to spread more gradually.
However, the continuous rise of the Danube’s water level, coupled with tidal surges, forced Budapest authorities to take action. On 6th June 2024, Budapest Public Road closed several sections of the lower quays on both the Buda and Pest sides of the city. The flooding reached such levels that even the main building of the Budapest University of Technology and Economics (BME) had to be temporarily closed due to high water.
Similar flooding occurred during the last week of December last year, with the Danube and its tributaries experiencing elevated water levels due to heavy rainfall. In Budapest, the water level peaked at 6930 mm.
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