Russia’s 2026 parliamentary campaign is unfolding under new conditions. May and June set records for the number of Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries. Around 30 strikes have been recorded, 16 of which targeted 8 of the country’s 10 largest refineries. Against the backdrop of traditional political struggle, fuel problems have emerged at the worst possible moment for the Kremlin.
It is important to understand that while the disruption of fuel infrastructure in Russia does create certain logistical difficulties, the main consequence of these strikes lies not in the economic sphere, but in the political one.
The ability to ensure stability and meet the population’s basic needs has long served as the solid foundation of Russian power. Over time, fuel has become a symbol of economic well-being and everyday comfort. Even minor disruptions to petrol station supplies and price increases create a unique, previously non-existent factor of domestic political destabilisation.
However, it would be a mistake to expect that fuel problems will be directly converted into a drop in the ruling party’s ratings. The impact of this factor on the election outcome is ambiguous.
On the one hand, the difficulties that have arisen are indeed affecting the electoral base. When Russians see queues at petrol stations and photographs of columns of smoke rising above oil refineries, questions arise about the authorities’ effectiveness.
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On the other hand, the Kremlin still holds its main trump card up its sleeve: the “besieged fortress” effect. An external threat, manifested in attacks on civilian and strategic infrastructure, as well as any attempts to interfere in the electoral process, traditionally fosters national unity. In a situation where the country sees direct attacks from the outside, any upheavals begin to be perceived by a large part of the population not as a failure of the bureaucracy, but as a consequence of the enemy’s actions, requiring a rallying around the leadership. Under such circumstances, even a noticeable rise in fuel prices cannot deliver the desired political result and will, on the contrary, strengthen patriotic sentiment.
With just under three months to go before the Russian parliamentary elections, an ambiguous situation has taken shape. The Ukrainian strikes and the smoke over oil refineries simultaneously cause anxiety among Russians but also fuel the belief in the need to defend against an external enemy. The outcome of the parliamentary elections will depend on which of these prevails in voters’ minds on the actual day of the vote.
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