How far is Hungary really from the euro? The reality behind the 2030 target

Hungary is still significantly distant from adopting the euro, with fresh analysis showing the country failed to meet any of the key entry criteria in 2025. While political ambitions point to progress by 2030, economists warn that actual euro adoption would likely come later.

According to calculations by GKI Economic Research, Hungary has recently moved further away rather than closer to meeting the so-called Maastricht criteria, the essential economic conditions for joining the eurozone.

What are the Maastricht criteria?

To adopt the euro, EU member states must meet five strict conditions:

• Price stability: Inflation must remain close to the best-performing EU countries
• Budget deficit: Must stay below 3% of GDP
• Public debt: Should approach or remain under 60% of GDP
• Long-term interest rates: Must remain within a narrow margin of low-inflation countries
• Exchange rate stability: The national currency must remain stable within the ERM II system for at least two years

Hungary currently falls short on all five.

Where Hungary stands today

Recent data paints a challenging picture:

• Inflation: 4.4% in 2025, well above the roughly 2.6% reference level
• Budget deficit: Around 4.7% of GDP, expected to rise towards 6% in 2026
• Public debt: Approximately 74.6% of GDP, increasing rather than declining
• Long-term interest rates: Around 6–7%, significantly above the EU benchmark
• Exchange rate stability: Hungary is not yet part of ERM II

In short, Hungary is not just missing the targets: in several areas, trends are moving in the wrong direction.

Can Hungary meet the 2030 target?

The government programme of the election-winning Tisza Party aims to meet the euro criteria by 2030. However, even if this goal is achieved, joining the eurozone would not be immediate.

A key additional requirement is exchange rate stability: Hungary would need to spend at least two years in the ERM II system, where the forint’s value is kept within a fixed band against the euro.

This means that even under an optimistic scenario:

• Criteria met: around 2030
• ERM II participation: 2030–2032
• Earliest realistic euro adoption: around 2032 or later

Public support is strong, but expectations are realistic

Surveys suggest Hungarians are broadly in favour of the common currency:

• 75% support adopting the common currency
• 72% believe Hungary is not yet ready

This shows a clear understanding among the public that while the euro is desirable, the country’s economic fundamentals still need significant improvement.

The economic case: benefits and risks

Potential benefits

Experts highlight several advantages of euro adoption:

• Lower interest rates, reducing borrowing costs for households and businesses
• Elimination of currency exchange costs
• Stronger trade integration with eurozone partners
• Improved economic stability and investor confidence

Even the commitment to joining could bring early benefits by reducing risk premiums and improving market expectations.

Possible risks

However, there are also concerns:

• Loss of independent monetary policy
• Risk of higher inflation during economic convergence
• Potential economic imbalances if growth accelerates too quickly

While recent examples such as Croatia and Bulgaria suggest limited short-term inflation effects, long-term risks remain tied to economic policy discipline.

A decade-long journey

Hungary’s path to the euro is not impossible, but it is far from imminent. Current economic indicators suggest the country is years away from even qualifying, let alone adopting the currency.

If reforms accelerate and targets are met by 2030, Hungarians might realistically expect to pay in euros in the early 2030s at the earliest.

Until then, the focus will need to remain on stabilising the economy: a process that, in itself, could already deliver many of the euro’s promised benefits.

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