Hungarian soldiers under fire in Erbil: will Orbán withdraw troops after the latest attack?

Hungarian soldiers have been serving in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, for nearly a decade. Yet they have never found themselves in a situation as dangerous as the one unfolding now. Since the outbreak of the Israeli–American–Iranian conflict, the city’s military installations have been subjected to repeated drone and missile strikes. The blasts are no longer falling on distant perimeters: a French soldier has been killed, and Hungarian troops are stationed in a zone under direct and active fire.

Present for a decade, now under fire

The Hungarian Defence Forces have been deployed to the Erbil area as part of the international coalition since 2015, where their duties include training local forces, providing advisory support, and building partner capacity. In November 2025, the Hungarian government extended the Iraqi mission through to 31 December 2026, with a contingent of up to twenty soldiers – rising to forty during rotation periods.

That relatively quiet mission changed fundamentally at the end of February.

The conflict erupts – first Strikes

On 28 February, the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran. Following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran responded with drone and missile attacks targeting countries hosting American military assets. Erbil was immediately placed in the crosshairs.

A drone struck an ammunition depot at the American military base in Erbil, triggering a massive fire and a series of explosions – the column of smoke was visible from kilometres away. The attacks have not let up since: Iran has launched more than 200 ballistic missiles and drones against the Kurdistan region, the majority aimed directly at Erbil, whilst other projectiles have been fired by Iranian-backed militias from Iraqi territory. American Patriot air-defence systems have successfully intercepted several incoming projectiles.

The Hungarian soldiers have come through every strike unscathed. According to the Ministry of Defence, during the most recent impact the troops were sheltering in a bunker, and all personnel are safe. Details: Hungarian troops take shelter as attack hits base in Iraq – VIDEO, UPDATE

The first allied fatality – a French soldier killed in Erbil

The conflict reached a grave turning point on 12 and 13 March. A drone struck a joint Kurdish Peshmerga–French training base in the Makhmur district, where French forces had deployed advisers. One French soldier was killed and six others were wounded; the injured were evacuated immediately to the nearest military medical unit.

French President Emmanuel Macron described the attack as “unacceptable”, stressing that French troops are present in Iraq solely within the strict framework of the counter-terrorism mission against ISIS, which has been ongoing since 2015. “The war in Iran cannot justify such attacks,” the President declared. The Erbil-based Italian contingent was also hit – fortunately without casualties – as was part of the NATO forces’ installation in the city. Erbil has, in effect, become the edge of an active theatre of war.

The umbrella organisation of Iranian-aligned Iraqi militias, known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, claimed responsibility for the strike and warned that French interests in the region may remain targets.

Orbán holds the cards – a delicate alliance

The conflict has brought a politically charged question to the fore: the government of Viktor Orbán, which commands a two-thirds parliamentary majority, has the unilateral authority to decide whether Hungary’s mission continues or is withdrawn. There is no institutional check that could compel a contrary outcome.

At the weekend, Orbán announced that Hungary had raised its counter-terrorism alert level – a signal that the government is taking the escalation seriously. For the time being, however, official communications have scrupulously avoided any mention of a possible withdrawal.

The reason for this caution is not purely a matter of principle: it is also strategic. Washington, Hungary’s NATO ally, would view any retreat from the region with considerable displeasure. From the American perspective, coalition presence is a coherent and interdependent system. If allies begin withdrawing one by one under Iranian pressure, it creates the appearance of a victory for Tehran – and sends a damaging political signal. France’s response is instructive: despite suffering its first fatality in the conflict, Paris immediately reaffirmed its commitment to remaining in place. That decision raises the implicit expectation that other allies will hold the line as well.

Orbán therefore finds himself with limited room for manoeuvre. The safety of Hungarian soldiers and fidelity to alliance commitments both demand attention simultaneously, while domestic political messaging has traditionally been reluctant to portray Hungarian troops as operating in an active combat zone. The coming weeks will reveal whether the government can sustain that contradiction – or whether it will be forced to take an unambiguous stand.

As we wrote earlier, Orbán cabinet silently took on another huge foreign USD loan before the elections