(MTI) – Hungary’s headline consumer inflation is likely to have remained flat last month after an annual 0.1 percent print in March, but is set to accelerate later on the back of base effects, London-based emerging markets economists said ahead of Tuesday’s data release.
Analysts at Barclyas said they expect a 0.1 percent year-on-year CPI figure for April, although “with a risk of a slight decline”. Inflation will probably finally start to rise in May and accelerate in the second half of 2014, but will likely remain well below the 3 percent target, they added.
London-based economists of BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, the research unit of Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, said they expect zero headline inflation on a year-on-year basis for April. They forecast an average headline inflation of 0.8 percent this year.
Inflation will accelerate on base effects and gradual strengthening of domestic demand, which has been responding to improved real wage growth, exceptionally low retail borrowing rates and rising employment, they added.
Analysts at JP Morgan said inflation likely stayed flat at 0.1 percent year-on-year in April. The 6.5 percent cut in natural gas price tariffs came into effect on April 1 but will show up only in May prices once households have received bills for April.
Recent forint appreciation improves the inflation outlook relative to the NBH’s forecast. A 3 percent strengthening of the currency could lower 2015 inflation by 0.5 percentage point, leaving it below the 3 percent target for an extended period, JP Morgan’s analysts said.
Analysts at 4cast said they expect Hungary’s year-on-year headline CPI at 0.2 percent in April.