Hungary posts EUR 814 m trade surplus in September – UPDATE
Budapest, November 9 (MTI) – Hungary’s trade surplus came to 814.0 million euros in September, a first reading of data released by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) on Monday shows.
The surplus was down by 125.9 million euros in September from the same month a year earlier. Exports climbed by 5.6 percent to 8.200 billion euros during the period and imports rose by 8.2 percent to 7.386 billion euros.
In January-September, the trade surplus came to 6.121 billion euros, up by 1.084 billion from the same period last year. Exports rose by 7.2 percent to 67.586 billion euros and imports increased by 5.9 percent to 61.465 billion euros.
Fully 76 percent of Hungary’s imports came from other European Union countries in September and 80 percent of exports went to them.
Analysts interviewed by MTI attributed the substantial rise in imports to recovering domestic demand.
Andras Balatoni of ING and Gergely Urmossy of Erste both linked the fast import growth to the increase in private consumption. So far, the deterioration in the trade balance resulting from higher consumer goods imports has been offset by the low oil price, Balatoni said, adding that ING’s forecast for the full-year trade surplus in 2015 is 7.5 billion euros.
Urmossy said he expected the trend of import growth exceeding export growth to continue in the remaining part of the year as well as next year. If the trade surplus does not grow any further in the coming period, that could suggest that the structure of the Hungarian economy has become healthier because its growth is less dependent on imports, he added.
Gergely Suppan of Takarekbank forecast a full-year trade surplus of 7.9 billion euros in 2015 as the trade balance could improve further on low oil prices in the remaining part of the year.
Economy ministry deputy state secretary Zoltan Istvan Marczinko said exports were mainly driven by automotive industry output, adding however that several other sectors were now catching up with it. Marczinko told public news channel M1 that although details are still scarce after KSH’s first reading of data, he expects the pharmaceutical and plastics industries to have contributed significantly to the September trade surplus.
The state secretary attributed the increase in imports to retailers’ Christmas preparations and said that in order for stores to be fully stocked in November and December, they must start submitting orders in September. Marczinko called it another possible reason for the increase that after scaling back production over the summer, Hungarian exporters restarted operations in September and needed to stock up on imported materials.
Source: http://mtva.hu/hu/hungary-matters
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