An energy analyst at Erste wrote that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and the Russian owners are no longer keen to sell NIS to Hungarian company MOL after Orbán’s historic election defeat and Péter Magyar’s supermajority. Moreover, the new Hungarian government is expected to abolish the fuel price cap soon.
The future of the fuel price caps
According to Erste, the current economic situation is increasing the revenues of Hungarian oil and gas giant MOL, which will boost the company’s profits this year. Based on the company’s gas and oil market analyst, Attila Holoda, the Magyar government will end the fuel price cap in May. Meanwhile, maintenance work on MOL’s Danube refinery in Százhalombatta will be completed in October.
According to the Erste analyst, the new Hungarian government may reclaim MOL’s 25% state-owned stake, which the Orbán government gave to three foundations for free in 2021. The analyst believes the move would be welcomed by the other owners, as it would create a more transparent ownership structure.
Will MOL be able to buy Serbian NIS?
The analyst said the NIS transaction had fallen behind schedule, but MOL is still the most likely buyer on the market. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and the Russian owners are no longer keen to sell NIS to Hungarian company MOL after Orbán’s historic election defeat and Péter Magyar’s supermajority. However, the analyst does not see another long-term solution to the problems facing the Serbian oil giant, since the Hungarian company could be a stable owner amid American sanctions.
Talks on sale of NIS to close soon – Serbian energy minister
Talks between the Russian majority owner of Serbian oil company NIS and Hungarian oil and gas company MOL are progressing well and could conclude around 16 May, Serbian energy minister Dubravka Dedovic said at an economic forum in Belgrade on Tuesday.
There are intensive talks underway between both the Russian majority owner and MOL, as well as Serbia and MOL, the minister said. The talks are expected to continue in a few days, and the agreement on shareholders’ rights and obligations could be reached soon. The conditions will then be in place to share certain information with the United States, which has to approve the agreement. According to the negotiation licence issued by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the process must be concluded by 22 May.
Dedovic said NIS constitutes critical energy infrastructure for Serbia. The current crisis has shown that countries without a refinery are more vulnerable and dependent on imports, she said. She said the key issue was the operation of the Pancevo refinery and to ensure that MOL undertakes a certain annual level of processing.
Dedovic also said some – mainly commercial – issues were still open, and legal details needed to be resolved, including the construction of a new oil pipeline between Serbia and Hungary, as well as the presence of the products of the Pancevo refinery on the Serbian market.
The United States introduced sanctions against NIS over the Russian majority stake in October 2025. The MOL Group on January 19 said it agreed with Gazprom Neft on the main conditions of a binding framework agreement, under which it would buy a 56.15pc stake in NIS. MOL is also in talks with ADNOC, the national oil company of the United Arab Emirates, to join the owners of NIS as a minority shareholder.
Russia’s Gazprom holds a 11.3% stake in NIS, and Gazprom Neft, its subsidiary, holds 44.9%. The Serbian government has a 29.87%, with the remaining shares held by small shareholders.
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