Orbán miscalculated: He lost his biggest European ally
Viktor Orbán has once again found himself on the wrong side of shifting European political dynamics, this time concerning the recent elections in Poland.
Loss of an ally, strong adversary on the horizon
Hungary has long aligned itself with other illiberal democracies, including Poland. From Hungary’s perspective, the changes in Polish politics mean the loss of one of its most crucial traditional allies, putting the longstanding concept of Polish-Hungarian friendship in jeopardy, a concept Hungary vehemently supported.
Not only does Hungary lose one of it’s allies, most likely it will also gain an adversary to be reckoned with. Especially considering the sway they wield in European politics and the almost certain appointment of Donald Tusk as their next leader. This will prove to be a problem for Hungary’s political leaders, writes 444.
Speaking of Hungary’s political leaders and their challenges, it is essential to consider the increasing isolation from the European Union as well as Viktor Orbán’s Russian friendly politics. These foreign policies pursued by Orbán further contribute to Hungary‘s isolation from the EU. Read more about Hungarian foreign policies HERE.
What comes next?
In the past, Hungary had enjoyed the support of Poland’s governing party, PiS, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski. However, this changed with a high turnout (estimated at 73%) in the Polish elections this year, ending the illiberal regime. The result of these events will inevitably lead to changes in the region, including the appointment of a new Prime Minister, likely Donald Tusk, who leads the Civic Coalition. You can read more about the Polish election HERE.
Tusk faces a challenging task navigating the complicated political landscape that has evolved, which consists of cooperating with the Civic Coalition and managing remaining PiS loyalists in key positions. Tusk’s primary internal policy goal is to discredit PiS and demonstrate that there is no future for EU member states that question the rule of law, which directly affects Hungary.
In other words, the primary internal policy for Tusk is to step up against Hungary.
Since he has an extensive political history, this is a feasible goal for him. Tusk used to be the president of the European Council and also served as a former Polish Prime Minister. In this regard, he has the same level of political experience as Viktor Orbán.
As for the leader of Hungary, Orbán is likely to face considerable embarrassment in response to the situation, as explaining the loss of a crucial traditional ally will not go down well.
It appears that the “Warsaw Express” has dismantled the Eastern European illiberal axis, leaving uncertainty about what else it may alter in its wake.
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8 Comments
Many European countries agree with Prime Minister Orban’s policies but either afraid to voice it or allow Hungary to take the blame because of cowardice. Let’s take immigration, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia are just some of the countries that refuse to take illegal migrants yet voted for or abstained from the new EU migration pact. Furthermore, if a referendum was taken including the people of the EU, Hungary’s immigration policy would be affirmed.
@mariavontheresa – if governments would concur with Mr. Orbán and our Politicians – they would vote with him. Point is – they do not. The “illegal immigrant” discussion is a tough one, since for Hungary, there is no such thing as an asylum seeker or a refugee.
https://euaa.europa.eu/latest-asylum-trends-asylum
Please do take a look at Hungary (for all of our chatter) and note the so-called “recognition rate” which stands at 44 percent.
Hungarian Politicians “policy” is pretty divisive. For work, I interact with a lot of “people of the EU”, and from experience, I can tell you one if not the first talking point in any encounter is our Politicians and the situation in Hungary. I wish they were compliments, but they are generally not.
Träumen Sie weiter ihren Traum von Orban liebe Maria, aber irgendwann einmal werden Sie aufwachen müssen. Die Migrationspolitik ist für Orban nur ein innenpolitisches Vehikel und sie entscheidet nicht, wie viel Macht und Einfluss Orban in der Welt, der EU oder in der Nato hat. Orban hat bereits vollständig das gesamte vorhandene Porzellan in der EU und in der Nato zerschlagen und er wird, wenn überhaupt, ohne Gesichtsverlust aus dieser Ecke nicht mehr herauskommen. Das heißt nicht, dass Orbans Migrationspolitik falsch war. Aber diese diente ihm ausschließlich zur eigenen Machterhaltung. Sicher wissen mittlerweile alle europäischen Politiker wie Orbans Politiksystem funktioniert, und zwar genauso wie bei allen Autokraten und Diktatoren. Es ist immer ein “äußerer Feind” an allen ungarischen Problemen schuld. Man selber ist unschuldig. Fidesz und Orban sprechen dann immer wieder öffentlich von Feinden und nicht von politischen Gegnern. Die Aussage sagt sehr viel über das Menschenbild der Beteiligten aus. Wie bei allen Autokraten und Diktatoren kann es sich Orban nicht leisten, abgewählt zu werden, weil dann die Korruption, die Machtmissbräuche und andere Vergehen ans Licht kommen würden. Dann würde auch offensichtlich, dass alles nur dem Machterhalt diente und es nicht darum ging, für Ungarn die beste Lösung zu erreichen. Aber einmal wird er auf die eine oder andere Art gehen müssen.
Very well said Kurt Kiesewetter 👍
Let’s see… how many allies does Hungary have in the EU? Answer: 0
How many allies does Hungary have in NATO? Answer: 0
How many neighboring countries’ internationally recognized borders has Hungary expressed a desire to change? Answer: 3
Good going with Orban, Hungary…. just never ask why everyone else is against you.
Prime Minister Orbans’s only duty is to the Hungarian people. This includes Hungarian descendants living in surrounding EU countries such as Ukraine, Romania, Austria. Slovakia, etc.. This was the result of the Treaty of Trianon. Zelenskyy’s government oppresses the Hungarian minority in the Ukraine. It is Orban’s government that saves these Hungarians in Ukraine from famine, ensures that children have presence at X-mas and rebuilds its churches destroyed by Ukrainians. Therefore, it would make no sense for Hungary to support Zelenskyy’s dictatorship. Similarly, Romania is trying to wipe out the 1 million Hungarians’ heritage. Interestingly, there are Hungarian villages in Serbia, where displaced Hungarians live thrives. Therefore, Hungary’s attitude towards Romania and Ukraine makes total sense.
Hungary is crucified for using Russian oil and gas. Logical beings will admit that Russia is the only country that could presently supply Hungary’s needs. Hungary must use existing pipelines since Hungary is a landlocked country.
The EU’ motto is unity within diversity, or something like it. Then why are EU countries, including Germany spend their time criticizing a democratically elected Christian Democratic Government. Why cannot EU countries accept the fact that the Hungarian majority knew what they were voting for when the population overwhelmingly supported the FIDESZ government? Why does the EU continually want to interfere in the internal affairs of the country. Hungary has the right to keep woke ideas out of elementary schools. Hungary has the right to declare that marriage is between a man and woman; at the same time protecting the safety of LGBTQ members. That seems logical, it satisfies the morals of the majority while protecting the safety of the minority.
Tons of time, news media parrots EU leaders’ opinion that there is corruption in Hungary. I would like some proven concrete examples. Corruption runs rampant in Ukraine, e.g., money designated for food and equipment for the Ukrainian Armed forces simply disappeared or weapons supplied to Ukraine are sold on the black market. Ursula von der Leyen willingly hugs and kisses Zelenskyy, the dictator, a dictator who outlaws churches and send secret service into convents. Where is the logic.
One of the other complaints, especially from Germany is that there is no free press in Hungary. Boy, are they wrong. If people could read the contents of the Hungarian newspapers, they would change their minds. I must admit that I read news translated into English. In all countries media companies are privately owned. Usually, the owners of these companies determine the coverage. In the US WAPO is owned by Bezos. Bezos is a democrat; therefore, the paper is leftist. Hungarian newspapers do not reflect this bias. Advertising money is spent in media to reach the maximum readers or audience. It makes sense for the Hungarian government to advertise in media that will give the maximum exposure for the money.
Hungary accepts the facts that Germany, Holland and many other EU countries prefer socialist governments instead of capitalism. Hungary accepts that facts that Germany, France, UK, Holland and other EU countries accept the uneducated, the criminal and anti Semitic migrants. Hungary believes that it is the right of the people of every country to determine their future.
It is time that EU countries to accept Hungary’s diversity and honor the people with the acknowledgement that the people knew what was best for their country when they elected a FIDESZ government.
“Treaty of Trianon”
Q: You know who keeps brining up 100 year old political agreements as an excuse for bad behavior?
A; Losers. Give it up. Hungary will not receive a chunk of Ukraine in exchange for its faithful service to russia.
The rest is a bunch of unsourced accusations …
“Hungary believes that it is the right of the people of every country to determine their future”
Except for Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine apparently….
The treaty is relevant to this day because ex-pats, retained their culture and language and did not assimilate. As for the unfounded accusation, it seems that you have not been following current events. Slovak people elected a populous government. Although Polish people had erroneously elected Tusk, it will be temporary. However, the Slovak president/prime minister’s vote is just as effective.