Orbán miscalculated: He lost his biggest European ally

Jarosław Kaczyński and Viktor Orbán
Jarosław Kaczyński and Viktor Orbán in the Sejm on 22 September, 2017. Source: Wikimedia Commons: Kancelaria Sejmu / Paweł Kula

Viktor Orbán has once again found himself on the wrong side of shifting European political dynamics, this time concerning the recent elections in Poland.

Poland, one of Europe’s most influential middle powers due to its substantial economy and military strength, significantly impacts European politics through its elections. Until now, Polish and Hungarian politicians have generally stood together in European politics. However, the recent Polish elections might mark a swift change in this partnership.

Loss of an ally, strong adversary on the horizon

Hungary has long aligned itself with other illiberal democracies, including Poland. From Hungary’s perspective, the changes in Polish politics mean the loss of one of its most crucial traditional allies, putting the longstanding concept of Polish-Hungarian friendship in jeopardy, a concept Hungary vehemently supported.

Not only does Hungary lose one of it’s allies, most likely it will also gain an adversary to be reckoned with. Especially considering the sway they wield in European politics and the almost certain appointment of Donald Tusk as their next leader. This will prove to be a problem for Hungary’s political leaders, writes 444.

Speaking of Hungary’s political leaders and their challenges, it is essential to consider the increasing isolation from the European Union as well as Viktor Orbán’s Russian friendly politics. These foreign policies pursued by Orbán further contribute to Hungary‘s isolation from the EU. Read more about Hungarian foreign policies HERE.

What comes next?

In the past, Hungary had enjoyed the support of Poland’s governing party, PiS, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski. However, this changed with a high turnout (estimated at 73%) in the Polish elections this year, ending the illiberal regime. The result of these events will inevitably lead to changes in the region, including the appointment of a new Prime Minister, likely Donald Tusk, who leads the Civic Coalition. You can read more about the Polish election HERE.

Tusk faces a challenging task navigating the complicated political landscape that has evolved, which consists of cooperating with the Civic Coalition and managing remaining PiS loyalists in key positions. Tusk’s primary internal policy goal is to discredit PiS and demonstrate that there is no future for EU member states that question the rule of law, which directly affects Hungary.

In other words, the primary internal policy for Tusk is to step up against Hungary.

Since he has an extensive political history, this is a feasible goal for him. Tusk used to be the president of the European Council and also served as a former Polish Prime Minister. In this regard, he has the same level of political experience as Viktor Orbán.

As for the leader of Hungary, Orbán is likely to face considerable embarrassment in response to the situation, as explaining the loss of a crucial traditional ally will not go down well.

It appears that the “Warsaw Express” has dismantled the Eastern European illiberal axis, leaving uncertainty about what else it may alter in its wake.

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