Surge in support for Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party prompts analyst to call for shake-up in Orbán’s team

Gábor Török, one of Hungary’s most respected political scientists, has sparked a crucial debate: should Prime Minister Viktor Orbán be replaced by someone else to take the blame if the 2026 general elections end in disaster? The reason is clear—while government-affiliated pollsters still show a narrow Fidesz lead, every other major poll reveals a striking advantage for Péter Magyar’s Tisza party.

21 Research Centre: Péter Magyar’s unstoppable rise

Three leading pollsters have recently released their projections for the 2026 elections. As previously reported, Medián’s poll revealed a historic shift: more Hungarians now trust Péter Magyar, leader of Tisza, over Prime Minister Orbán—a remarkable milestone in a country where Orbán has long been seen as the only viable leader for two decades.

According to the 21 Research Center, Péter Magyar’s party currently enjoys a 7% lead across the entire population—an increase of 1% since April. Their data indicates Fidesz has 2 million supporters, while Tisza has already attracted 2.5 million. Among those ready to choose a party, Tisza leads by 11% (48% vs 37%), and among committed voters, the gap widens to 52% for Tisza against 34% for Fidesz. This 18-point difference is driven by Tisza’s highly motivated and enthusiastic base.

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Orbán needs the pensioners’ votes

Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) may enter Parliament with 7%, while the Democratic Coalition risks falling below the threshold at just 4%. And for Hungary’s perennial joke party—the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party—winning seats seems increasingly unlikely.

Tisza’s support is twice as strong as Fidesz’s in Budapest, and 1.5 times higher in provincial cities. Yet in villages, Fidesz still holds a slim 4% lead. Education also plays a role: among voters with only primary education, Fidesz commands a dominant 42% to 17% lead, but among degree holders, Tisza leads decisively with 46% against Fidesz’s 18%.

Among those over 65, 52% support Fidesz, while only 20% back Tisza—likely explaining the government’s plan to distribute “extra” pension vouchers worth HUF 30,000 in paper form this September. Meanwhile, Tisza’s appeal is overwhelming among voters under 40. The 21 Research Center surveyed 1,000 individuals, with results considered nationally representative.

Závecz Research: Tisza must bolster rural and elderly support

Závecz Research paints a similar picture. Their poll shows Tisza leading with 46% to Fidesz’s 35%. Our Homeland would enter Parliament with 7%, and the Democratic Coalition could reach 5%. The Two-Tailed Dog Party remains below the threshold at 4% among voters with clear party preferences. With a sample of 1,500 respondents, Závecz’s results are also representative.

Tisza’s lead is especially strong among younger voters (37% vs 13%), though Fidesz maintains a solid edge among the elderly (36% vs 29%).

n Budapest, Tisza commands 40%, compared to Fidesz’s 18%. In provincial cities, Tisza enjoys 37% support, with Fidesz at 25%. Smaller towns show a close race (29% vs 27%), while in villages, Fidesz narrowly leads 31% to Tisza’s 28%.

Interestingly, 39% of adults believe Fidesz will win the 2026 elections, while 38% expect a Tisza victory.

Republicon Institute: 85% of Budapest voters ready to cast ballots; Tisza dominates the capital

The latest poll from the Republicon Institute confirms Budapest as Tisza’s stronghold. The Democratic Coalition would secure 10%, the Two-Tailed Dog Party 5–6%, and Our Homeland 5% in the capital.

Veteran analyst urges Orbán to overhaul his team

Gábor Török warns that despite Nézőpont’s recent government-friendly poll showing Fidesz at 44% versus 39% for Tisza, Orbán cannot afford to be complacent. All other major polls show a significant Tisza lead.

Török notes there is still ample time before the election, and Fidesz wields far more power and resources than its rivals. However, without changes in both policy and personnel, reversing the current trend will be an uphill struggle.

This morning, Telex reported that Fidesz is replacing most of its candidates in Budapest. Even Szilárd Németh, the party’s deputy chairman, will not run as an MP candidate and will instead support Nóra Király, former deputy mayor of the 11th district. Alexandra Szentkirályi, leader of the party’s representatives in the Municipal Assembly, has been tasked with revitalising the weakened Fidesz organisations in the capital.

Orbán himself has acknowledged Fidesz’s weakness in Budapest and taken responsibility. Yet his recent moves—such as imposing massive solidarity tax cuts on the capital—suggest he is focusing on winning support in the countryside rather than in the city.

Read more about Péter Magyar and the Tisza party by clicking HERE.