Is PM Orbán preparing for early elections in 2025?

According to Hungary’s 2025 budget law, the Orbán government plans to spend HUF 8.4 billion (EUR 20.5 million) on the upcoming general elections in 2025. Is that just a technicality, an error, or will there be early elections in Hungary next year?

No early elections since 1990 in Hungary

Hungarians could first elect freely in April and May 1990, after the collapse of the Communist state. Since then, no early elections have been organised in Hungary, even though sometimes it could have been, for the best. For example, in 2006, the Ferenc Gyurcsány cabinet faced protests after it became apparent that the prime minister and his government lied about the budget numbers to the European Union and the people. However, the Socialist government did not give up and served its full term to suffer a historic defeat from Fidesz in 2010 and “give” Orbán his first supermajority in the parliament.

Hungary early elections Orbán
Photo: FB/Orbán

PM Orbán believes that governments in Hungary should serve their terms despite the circumstances. According to him, cabinets serving their full term are a condition of stability and predictability. That is unique in Central and Eastern Europe, where early elections are common.

Péter Magyar emerged as Orbán’s main challenger

The Orbán system faces its biggest challenge in Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party in the upcoming general elections. Even government-close pollsters believe that Orbán has no chance for another supermajority. Neutral and leftist pollsters measure a significant Tisza Party lead.

Therefore, it makes sense to hold early elections in Hungary. Vox Populi választási kalauz, a Hungarian Facebook page focusing on elections and polls, shared that the 2025 budget of Hungary, accepted in December by Orbán’s Fidesz-KDNP alliance, programs the election organisation spending, EUR 20.5 million, for 2025. That would cover the costs of printing ballots, sending out notifications for the citizens and sending voting packages to Hungarians living abroad.

Hungary early elections Orbán
Photo: FB/Vox Populi

Will 2025 be ‘annus mirabilis’?

A considerable disadvantage of an early election would be that the Hungarian economy underperformed even government expectations in 2024, so there is a widespread depression due to the decreasing value of real wages and the prospects of entrepreneurs. PM Orbán promised wonders in the Hungarian economy in 2025, which seems to be a preparation for the parliamentary elections. Furthermore, the government plans serious transfers to the electorates. For example, they will double the family tax benefits for families raising three or more kids.

Read also:

  • Péter Magyar’s Tisza party ahead of PM Orbán in latest polls but won’t field candidates on next election – read more HERE

9 Comments

  1. “PM Orban believes that Governments, in Hungary, should serve their terms despite the circumstances”.
    CIRCUMSTANCES – don’t the CIRCUMSTANCES in front of ALL the eyes of Hungarians – what we have been DELIVERED to personally and as a COUNTRY – is not the CLEARNESS of the Economic & Financial “landscape” – looking at and into the BIG Picture, the gargantuan DEVASTATION to lives of millions Hungarians, are NOT just on this category alone, is NOT – the CIRCUMSTANCES , does this NOT WARRANT, for this Orban – Fidesz Government, to GO to the PEOPLE of Hungary and have an EARLY National Election in
    2025 ???
    Its a FACTUAL picture that WIDENS “at speed” – the cataclysmic capitulation of our country – Hungary, under the Orban – Fidesz Government.
    The “Nadir” till such time they are Removed or “Thrown out” as the Government of Hungary, this HAZARDOUS – fraught with immense DANGER(S) – we, as a country, will SINK into an Abyss.
    WHAT – in the BIG Picture of things – what in the end, will be left of Hungary, if we, its people, in SOLIDARITY, through our CONDUCT of “non-violent” residence – if we DON”T – through HASTE, bring about EFFECT – through People Power – the DOWNFALL of this Orban – Fidesz Government ???
    The last section of this article “touches” on the GLOOM of 2025 that WILL be FACT, in Hungary, if we don’t, as a Nation of People in SOLIDARITY through PRACTICE(S) in our CAUSE – instrumented under the Rights of DEMOCRACY – to “rid” us, as country, of this Orban – Fidesz Government.
    Quotes of Victor Mihaly. Orban – his WORDS, contained in this article, are totally DISJOINTED and Idiotic – that would SERVE as NO positivity to the FUTURE of Hungary.

  2. Preparedness – is of the Utmost of IMPORTANCE.
    In the event, through RIGHTFUL processes – all conducted, under the RIGHTS of PEOPLE living in a DEMOCRACY – are the LIKELY – the “incumbent” – the new and muchly NEEDED Government, under the Leadership Peter Magyar – the Tisza Party, are they, can they “hit the ground ” running, prepared – to start the Re-build gargantuan process that WILL be NEEDED in Hungary ???
    In the preparedness, the preparation process, the Tisza Party – must be ASSURED, through there Negotiations, there DIALOGUE, with the European Union and N.A.T.O.
    – that sooner than later – when they are “SWEPT” to Power, by PEOPLE Power into office, to be the Government of Hungary, in there DIALOGUE – the assurances THEY give – to the European Union and N.A.T.O. – they can Fulfil, to the letter, to the word, and that the European Union and N.A. T. O. – will 100% – support them – Hungary.
    If, and this is of paramount importance, if Hungary is to have a FUTURE, if this “Marriage” is AGREED – we Hungary, are AGAIN strengthen, by the POWER of Democracy.
    Hungary – we would be back in the FAMILY, of the “other” 26 countrys that form are member countrys of the European Union.
    Hungary – Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the United States of America – by our FULL practice, our EMBRASSING being a Member of the European Union, the (2) two countrys of DEMOCRACY, referred in the opening of the sentence, call them Global “Powerhouses” of DEMOCRACY, we would again return in FAVOUR.
    Hungary – our IMAGE globally would again return, being SEEN, being WITNESSED as a DEMOCRACY.
    Hungary – with WHAT the Tisza Party are going to inherit from the Orban – Fidesz Government – we personally and as country, we are GOING to NEED every bit of SUPPORT – all aspects of SUPPORT – from countrys GLOBALLY, not just the European Union, to ASSIST us, in the RESURRECTION of our country – Hungary.
    Tisza Party – Peter Magyar be PREPARED plus.

  3. If they call an early election obviously Fidesz is seeing continued future weak economic performance for Hungary causing public dissatisfaction. As long as the electoral laws allow it an early election is Orban’s prerogative. I really wonder whether Orban actually fears an end to the Ukraine war because he would not be able to use it as an excuse anymore for his economic mismanagement going into an election in 2026. Hungary is not at war, doesn’t contribute anything to Ukraine’s defence, and even carved out a bonus deal to keep cheap Russian energy flowing to Hungary but the government continually uses the propaganda line of war vs peace as somehow affecting the well being of Hungarians. People will eventually figure out they are being duped.

  4. Concur – Larry.
    Expensive DEAL, is the Russian Energy “veiled” arrangement, with NO doubt, many clauses, favouring Russia.
    Orban, his Government are “Gofers” to Russia.
    Orban, the longer this Russian War continues by Russia on the Ukraine, the BIGGER the word FABRICATOR of Truth, Position and FACT – just “Piles” on the name Orban.
    It must and can’t be FORGOTTEN – dealings with Russia, on any PLATFORM, that the Orban Government, the saying of YES comrade – DOMINATES.
    The Energy Deal “signed off” by Orban, with Russia, doing the figures again, is a HARSH “bite” on the pockets of Hungarians.
    Pressurization – across the entire spectrum of Hungary being Economic, Financial – all of the CORE componentry of Hungary’s functioning, principally in areas that are the RESPONSIBILITIES – of a Government to MANAGE, that all are in a worsening “HORRID” place.
    Hungarians – have been USED and Abused and dismally, by acts that are “Heinous” betrayed and FAILED – by the Orban Government.
    WATCH – the PROPAGANDA as the Orban led Government – will intensify its USE – in efforts to AVOID there DEMISE.

  5. I am so glad that the previous commentators can foretell the future. Could you send the same tarot cards or crystal balls to P.M. Orban so that he is as well informed as the commentators with their nonsense.

  6. Larry, I concur with your comment. An early election would make sense from their perspective to maximise the chance of a Fidesz majority, however small it might end up. 2025 is at risk of providing another year of economic stagnation and you make an excellent point about the potential end of the Ukraine war terminating that as an excuse to explain away myriad ills. The biggest motivation for an early election has to be trying to wrong foot the opposition who’ll otherwise use time to collect donations and build a shadow cabinet, the earlier it is the greater the apparent validity in accusations that they’re ‘ill prepared’, don’t have developed policies while also being able to focus the propaganda machine on the character of Peter Magyar, as he’s presently the only widely recognised, public-facing member of the party. Waiting longer also increases the chances of defections from Fidesz which will be hugely damaging for the government’s public image and the time is surely coming before the first of these put their head above the parapet.

  7. On the Ukraine issue, you’re right to say that Hungary appears to have experienced only upsides in the form of cheap Russian energy providing the country with a competitive advantage and a bumper windfall profit for MOL (and indeed the government coffers due to the extra profit tax) while simultaneously selling electricity and fuel to Ukraine due to the latter’s devastated domestic capabilities. Very few Ukrainian refugees have made Hungary their home resulting in little burden on the state coffers but with large numbers using Hungary as a regular transit country, paying road tolls, buying flights out of Budapest airport and staying in Hungarian hotels. The government has however succeded in managing to convince Hungarians to hoard money and business to withhold investment due to the ‘uncertainty’ and the ‘war economy’ so any wounds on this front are self inflicted.

  8. Londonsteve & Larry,
    Packaged, in what your commentaries are correctly expressing, is the NEED of Preparedness by the OPPOSING of the Orban – Fidesz Government.
    In the preparation, that GROWS, in seeing the growing probability of the DOWNFALL of the Hungarian Government, under Victor Orban and the Fidesz Government, this PREPARATION must extend in Hungary, not just being centered on the Political arena or scene – environment, but by the POPULATION of Hungary, those BELIEVERS who want and see, support that CHANGE, is there “Beacon of Light” for there personal Future and the FUTURE of there CRUMBLED country – Hungary.
    Orban, as has been his PRACTICE, it is IMPERATIVE that commencement from – the Political Party Opposition – Tisza Party under Peter Magyar, supported throughout the population of Hungary, that there be Not ALLOWED – any Houdini acts of escapism of Orban, his Fidesz Government – in the cataclysmic Mess & Chaos they have bought upon Hungary.
    Orban, his Fidesz Government – we must fight them with – Truth, truth and more TRUTH – to what is presently being “Feed” through propaganda into the population of Hungary, which AGAIN is just “DROWNED” in falsehood, lies and FABRICATION of what the real UGLY – sinking position picture – that is our country – Hungary.
    Orban, we know the as we move nearer to National Elections, or of an “Early” National Election, he will “try on” his Houdini acts, his games, in seeking re-election, that no doubt will have the “support” of Russia and China.
    Orban, his trail of destruction, his reputation, inside of Hungary, and in ALL countrys, not just the European Union, that are under the Governance of DEMOCRACY – fight HIM with TRUTH – in the denouncing of WHAT – the ways, he will, is FIGHTING for his POLITICAL survival.
    NEVER, in the decades post 1939 has there been a TIME, for Hungary – to DEEP Soul Search it-self, in an EFFORT to survive, have a GLIMMERING of LIGHT for a FUTURE.
    Hungarians – we need to in our own Self Conscience being Hungarians from “all stations in life” from the teen-age group, right through the entire Hungarian ageing and decreasing population, being TRUTHFUL with ourselves knowing living in seeing the DESTRUCTION of our country in ALL areas of our functioning operation as a country, we MUST look at the (2) two questions below – and be TRUTHFUL with ourselves for our Families and our Loved Ones and for the FUTURE of Hungary in answering these (2) two questions TRUTHFULLY.
    They are :
    (1) – what Political Party would provide me – in there Policies a better, a more opportunistic FUTURE – quality of life ???
    and secondly ;
    (2) – what Political Party would PROVIDE my country – Hungary, with a FUTURE – that will Benefit all Hungarians ???
    Don’t be DRAWN on emotion nor of your DNA but answer the (2) two above questions – “erasing” from our “memory banks” brains, any POLITICAL favouritism.
    Orban – fight HIM on Truth & Facts highlighting the current place of DESTRUCTION he and his Fidesz Government, have DELIVERED Hungary.
    Hungarians – being TRUTHFUL personally that answers – personally our Future and the FUTURE of our country.
    TRUTH as St. John, tells us – “Will Set us Free”.
    Truth is like a Lion, you don’t have to DEFEND it.
    Let it LOOSE – it will DEFEND it-self.
    WHAT a time in the HISTORY of Hungary – for TRUTH.

  9. London Steve thanks for that point about possible defections from Fidesz. That is a really interesting possibility.

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