The National Bank of Hungary celebrates 100 years of paediatric care with a stunning commemorative coin honouring the Hungarian Society of Paediatrics and its dedication to children’s health.
New coin issued by the National Bank of Hungary
As mnb shared, the National Bank of Hungary has unveiled a commemorative coin to mark the centenary of the Hungarian Society of Paediatrics. Presented at the Society’s jubilee general meeting in Debrecen, the non-ferrous metal coin, with a face value of HUF 3,000, is the creation of artist Andrea Horváth. This initiative honours the Society’s contributions to child health and welfare since its inception on 14 December 1924.
While the coin holds legal tender status, its intended value lies in commemorating this milestone and raising awareness of paediatric care. The coin is made of an alloy of copper (75%), nickel (4%) and zinc (21%), weighs 16 grams, has a diameter of 34 mm and a notched edge. In addition, the coin is a limited edition with only 10,000 pieces.
Hungarian Society of Paediatrics
The Hungarian Society of Paediatrics, founded by prominent figures such as Ármin Flesch, Pál Heim, and Ferenc Torday under the leadership of János Bókay, has supported the health of over 15 million children over the past century. Remaining steadfast in its principles of science-based medicine, safeguarding children’s health, and fostering a professional community, the Society continues to play a pivotal role in paediatric care. The National Bank of Hungary‘s commemorative coin further underscores these values, highlighting the Society’s enduring impact.
Photo: mnb.hu
The front of the coin
The National Bank of Hungary has released a commemorative coin celebrating the centenary of the Hungarian Society of Paediatrics, showcasing its legacy in advancing science-based child healthcare. The front of the coin highlights the Society’s therapeutic mission with a phonendoscope resting on two textbooks, alongside the inscriptions “HUNGARY,” “3000 FORINT,” the year “2024,” and the mint mark “BP.” The design, crafted by artist Andrea Horváth, includes her master mark on the spine of one of the books, symbolising precision and expertise.
The back of the coin
On the back, the coin features a doctor examining an infant, a nod to the Society’s official emblem and its commitment to paediatric care. Encircling this central motif are inscriptions of the Society’s full name and its motto, “100 YEARS OF CARING FOR CHILDREN,” connected by heart motifs to symbolise compassion. The commemorative coin underscores the National Bank of Hungary’s dedication to highlighting significant contributions to child health and family support over the past century.
The Hungarian forint is facing significant challenges, continuing its rapid depreciation against both the euro and the dollar. On Monday, the forint hit a two-year low against the dollar, while the euro also reached a record high, fueled by global economic factors and U.S. fiscal policies under Donald Trump. This decline comes at a time when Hungary’s economy is entering a recession, putting further pressure on the forint. With low interest rates and international market instability, the currency’s future remains uncertain, raising concerns about the extent of its weakening.
The Hungarian currency is facing a severe depreciation, hitting alarming lows against both the euro and the dollar. On Monday afternoon, the euro surged to a two-year high, reaching over 411 forints, before slightly retracing to around 410, Telex reported. This marks a continuation of the steep decline that began in late September, with the Hungarian currency also hitting a historic low against the Polish zloty, according to Portfolio.
The forint’s weakening is largely tied to the robust performance of the U.S. dollar, which has reached a six-month high against the euro and a two-year peak against the Hungarian currency. The dollar’s rise, particularly in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, is driven by expectations of expansive fiscal policies, which may generate inflationary pressure and force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates. This strengthens the dollar, especially in a global economic environment where most countries are cutting interest rates to revive their economies.
The euro’s weakness is not solely due to the dollar’s strength. The ongoing challenges within the Eurozone, including concerns about Germany’s sluggish economy and the potential impact of Trump’s planned tariffs, are also weighing heavily on the euro. These tariffs are expected to reduce demand for European goods, diminishing the euro’s appeal among investors. Furthermore, the political instability in Germany under Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s leadership is further undermining confidence in the Eurozone.
Very few encouraging signs for the forint
For Hungary, the strong dollar presents a major challenge. The U.S. currency’s dominance often leads to a pullback of capital from emerging markets, including Hungary, as investors seek the safety and high yields of the U.S. economy, Világgazdaság explains. On top of this, Hungary’s domestic economic situation is not helping the forint. Recent GDP data show the Hungarian economy has entered a recession, leading to expectations of looser monetary policies. While lower interest rates may help stimulate the economy, they also weaken the forint further.
With the forint now at a two-year low against the dollar, touching 385.88 forints per dollar, questions arise about the future of Hungary’s currency. The Hungarian National Bank (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, MNB) faces a delicate balancing act, as further rate cuts may risk even steeper depreciation of the forint, without any clear exchange rate targets to guide its decisions. The currency’s value is poised to remain volatile, as both international and domestic factors continue to push it downward.
After Donald Trump’s victory, the Hungarian forint started to fall and reached even 412/EUR, which was a 2-year maximum. The same trend was happening in the case of the dollar-forint exchange rate level. Later, the forint began to strengthen, and now it is at 407/EUR.
One euro may cost 500 forints in 2025
According to experts discussing the future of the Hungarian economy and the forint at the Portfolio Investment Day 2024 conference, Trump’seconomic policy would cause three times as big budget deficit than the Democrat administration. The consequence will be higher interest rates siphoning money from emerging markets like Hungary and the entire Central European region.
In trade, Trump may initiate new trade wars, which would also harm Europe and strengthen the dollar. Péter Virovácz, a leading analyst of ING Bank, said that by mid-2025, the dollar-euro rate can become 0.98, which would cause a euro/forint rate above 500.
Will that sum be only EUR 4 in 2025? Photo: Pexels
The Hungarian National Bank remained calm
Although Portfolio wroteabout a possible base interest rate increase, the Hungarian National Bank remained calm despite the weakening forint.
The Monetary Council of the National Bank of Hungarydiscussed a single option, to keep the base rate on hold, in line with a “careful, patient and stability-oriented approach”, at a monthly policy meeting in October, the minutes from the meeting show, MTI wrote.
The Council members voted unanimously to keep the base rate on hold at 6.50pc at the meeting on October 22.
Members highlighted that deteriorating international investor sentiment and volatile commodity prices posed upside risks to domestic inflation and said the moderation in the external interest rate environment was likely to continue at a slower pace than previously expected, the minutes show.
“There was a consensus among decision makers that, given the increase in upside risks to inflation, careful and patient monetary policy was still warranted looking ahead,” according to the minutes. “Members in general reaffirmed their commitment to the importance of cautious, data-driven and stability-oriented decision-making.”
Forint at 407/EUR
The forint strengthened in the second half of this week. Currently, it is at 407/EUR.
According to MTI, the forint traded at 406.52 to the euro around 5:30 in the evening on Friday, softening from 404.68 late Thursday. The forint slipped to 379.15 from 375.15 against the dollar. It eased to 433.36 from 429.91 to the Swiss franc.
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U.S. presidential election pushesforint to 2-year low
The Hungarian forint is at a 2-year low against the American dollar following Donald Trump’s decisive victory. All regional currencies are struggling because the strong dollar is bad news for emerging currencies like the Czech koruna or the Polish zloty. Meanwhile, PM Viktor Orbán, who established a strong relationship with Trump in the past few years, congratulated the newly-elected President and talked about a “spectacular victory” and “the greatest comeback in Western political history”. FM Szijjártó expressed hopes towards a ‘top shape’ cooperation with America again.
Trump’s victory did not help the forint. The American dollar is at a 2-year-high against the Hungarian national currency and all emerging currencies are struggling in the region. The USD was at a historic peak against the forint on 8 October 2022 because of the economic difficulties following the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine.
The euro is also at a 22-month peak against the forint. The last time the EU currency was stronger was in December 2022 with 418. The exchange rate is now at 410/EUR but it was 412 earlier today.
Photo: FB/Orbán
PM Orbán congratulates, talks about “spectacular victory”
Prime Minister Viktor Orbáncommented on the US presidential election on Wednesday and said “I see a spectacular victory, perhaps the greatest comeback in Western political history, a huge fight”. Speaking about Donald Trump, Orbán said that the Republican politician had first faced prison and a confiscation of his assets. He later faced an assassination attempt while “the whole media world of the US turned against him”, Orbán said, adding that “he has still won.”
He said it gave a great encouragement to everyone “who believes in will, struggle and perseverance, and a hope for peace for the world.”
It was hoped early this year that pro-peace forces would become a majority in the Western world by the end of the year and would defeat the pro-war camp, the prime minister said, adding that “there is now a great chance” to achieve that. He expressed hope for the economy to gain heat and for US-Hungary relations “to return to their golden era.”
Photo: Facebook/Orbán Balázs
“We have a number of plans that we can carry out together with President Donald Trump in the coming years,” Orbán said in a video published on Facebook. Interestingly, Orbán was addressed as President in the Reels video.
US-Hungary cooperation can get into a top shape
“The decision of American voters gives us good hopes that political cooperation between the United States and Hungary could again get into a top shape,” the foreign minister said on Facebook on Wednesday morning.
Péter Szijjártó highlighted that bilateral political relations had been at their peak during the first presidency of Donald Trump, when “dialogue and talks were in the focus of efforts aimed at resolving conflicts that jeopardised global security”. “We have similar positions concerning peace, illegal immigration and the protection of the family,” the minister said.
“We have the best ever chance so far for peace to return to Ukraine after almost a thousand days,” he added.
‘This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again,’ Trump says
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump early Wednesday thanked Americans for the apparent “honor of being elected” to the nation’s highest office, Anadolu news agency wrote.
“I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president,” Trump told supporters in Palm Beach, Florida, referring to his earlier term in office, in 2017-2021, before Joe Biden won four years as the 46th US president.
According to Fox News projections, Trump ensured victory after defeating his Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris in Tuesday’s presidential election.
“This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again,” Trump added.
Pledging to fight for every citizen, he said: “We’re going to help our country heal.”
The win would make Trump only the second US president to serve non-consecutive terms, following Grover Cleveland, who served two separate terms in the late 1800s, with President Benjamin Harrison in between.
‘America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate’
Winning the vote was “very nice,” said Trump.
“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. We have taken back control of the Senate,” he added.
Turning to border security, an issue he pressed on the campaign trail, he promised to “fix” the borders.
“We’re gonna have to seal up those borders … We want people to come back in, but we have to let them come back in, but they have to come in legally,” Trump said.
Stressing security, he said: “We want to have security. We want to have things be good safe … We want a strong and powerful military, and ideally we don’t have to use it.”
Trump says he is ‘working to stop wars,’ not start them
During his first term, the US had no wars for four years, except for the defeat of terrorist group Daesh/ISIS, Trump said.
“We defeated ISIS in record time but we had no wars. They said: ‘He will start a war.’ I’m not going to start (one), (I’m) working to stop wars. But this is also a massive victory for democracy and for freedom,” he added.
Stressing that being the US president is “the most important job” in the world, Trump claimed that he had a “great” first term.
“Nothing will stop me from keeping my word to you, the people. We will make America safe, strong, prosperous, powerful and free again.
“And I’m asking every citizen all across our land to join me in this noble and righteous endeavor. That’s what it is. It’s time to put the divisions of the past four years behind us. It’s time to unite.”
Trump’s address saw the attendance of family members, allies, and close advisers, including tech billionaire Elon Musk.
“We have a new star. A star is born,” he said, referring to Musk, who endorsed Trump and is expected to play a role in his administration.
Separately, his running mate JD Vance thanked Trump for the trust he placed in him.
“I think that we just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America,” Vance said in a short address to supporters.
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The Hungarian forint has been facing intense pressure against the euro, recently sinking to a two-year low of nearly 410 EUR/HUF as the U.S. presidential election introduces a wave of uncertainty into global markets. This downturn is driven by a combination of events, including fluctuating poll results, which have led to the dollar strengthening and emerging-market currencies like the forint weakening.
Presidential election impact on the dollar and emerging markets
As Donald Trump’s election odds have improved in recent weeks, the dollar has gained strength—a trend that typically exerts downward pressure on currencies from emerging markets, Index reports. Since early October, the forint has struggled to exit the 400 range against the euro, but recent election developments pushed it down further, with Tuesday’s rates briefly hitting the 410 mark. Following some market corrections, the forint improved slightly, but the currency remains highly volatile.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. As the U.S. presidential election introduces a wave of uncertainty into global markets, the forint has shrunk to a two-year low against the euro. Photo: MTI/EPA/The Washington Post pool/Demetrius Freeman
A stronger dollar generally spells trouble for emerging-market currencies, including the forint, as it raises the cost of imports and impacts inflation. According to analysts, a potential Trump victory could bring an aggressive U.S. economic and trade policy, sparking expectations of higher inflation and interest rates in the U.S., and causing the dollar to strengthen further. In turn, this would likely prolong the forint’s weakened position, potentially keeping it over 410 EUR/HUF.
Hungarian economy’s high exposure to U.S. trade shifts
Hungary’s economy, alongside other Central and Eastern European countries, could be significantly impacted by a U.S. Republican victory due to its exposure to the U.S. market. Last year, Hungarian exports to the U.S. totalled nearly USD 11 billion, while imports remained around USD 3 billion. A Trump win could bring protectionist measures, including higher tariffs, that may create hurdles for Hungary’s export-driven economy. In addition to currency fluctuations, tariffs would add cost pressures on Hungarian products entering the American market, potentially reducing demand and impacting Hungary’s trade balance.
What a Democratic victory might mean for the forint
Alternatively, if Kamala Harris were to win, the dollar might lose some of its recent momentum, easing pressure on emerging-market currencies. Additionally, the continuation of Democratic trade policies would likely mean lower tariffs, a development favourable for Hungary’s trade position with the U.S. Analysts believe a Democratic administration would favour looser fiscal policies, which could stabilise or even weaken the dollar, giving the forint some breathing room. This outcome could mean the forint regains strength and moves back below the 410 EUR/HUF threshold.
Market volatility likely to persist
Regardless of the presidential election’s outcome, the forint is expected to remain volatile in the coming weeks. Following Tuesday’s election, traders are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated by market players. This potential rate cut would add further complexity to currency markets, affecting the forint’s performance and prompting further adjustments in the dollar’s value.
While the Hungarian forint has suffered in the wake of the presidential election’s unpredictability, analysts caution that additional fluctuations are possible as results unfold and global investors react. Both U.S. presidential candidates have pledged expansive fiscal programs that would increase America’s national debt substantially. The projected debt increase is notably higher under Trump’s plan, which could drive inflation and influence the dollar’s strength in the long term.
For Hungary, this U.S. presidential election and its financial ripples underscore how connected emerging markets are to U.S. political outcomes. As volatility continues, businesses and consumers in Hungary may need to brace for continued adjustments in the exchange rate, which could impact everyday costs and Hungary’s broader economic landscape.
UPDATE: Whoever wins, the forint is in a hard situation
The Hungarian forint has weakened significantly due to uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election, reaching a 23-month low against the dollar and remaining weak against the euro. Analysts indicate that Donald Trump’s potential victory is strengthening the dollar, as his administration is expected to pursue loose fiscal and strict monetary policies. However, even if Kamala Harris were elected, the forint would still be negatively affected due to diplomatic tensions between Hungary and the U.S. According to Index, experts from Gránit Alapkezelő and Makronóm agree that the forint’s depreciation would likely continue regardless of the election outcome. The upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and domestic monetary policies may help stabilise the forint, though no interest rate cuts from the Hungarian National Bank are expected.
Shortly, digital currencies could reshape global financial systems, with the digital euro expected by November 2025. Meanwhile, the Hungarian Central Bank (MNB) is exploring the potential of a digital forint for wide-scale use, currently in a test phase for youth aged 8–14 since March of last year.
Digital forint in testing phase
The “Student Safe” (Diákszéf) mobile app, available nationwide since May last year, allows young people to manage digital forint transactions within the app, explained Anikó Szombati, head of MNB’s digital and fintech development, during the “Digital Hungary” event hosted by the Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation, Index reports. The MNB began researching digital central bank currencies around 2020 and published a study on the topic in 2021.
The MNB is exploring the potential of a digital forint for wide-scale use. Photo: depositphotos.com
While many central banks are examining digital currencies, most do so at a theoretical level. The MNB, however, has opted to practically test a local digital currency, with a focus on educating young users about responsible money management and digital payments. The goal is to develop a user-friendly and competitive app for digital currency transactions, potentially rivalling both traditional banks and major fintech players like Revolut.
Why digital currencies?
Central banks generally consider digital currencies for two primary reasons:
Market gaps – to address banking and fintech access issues in countries with limited financial services.
Strategic sovereignty – in the eurozone, for instance, the digital euro would help secure monetary independence from foreign digital currencies and major card companies, like Visa and Mastercard, which currently hold near-monopoly status in Europe.
A digital currency could also serve as a free payment tool for those in need. MNB’s digital currency rollout could make account services and transactions more affordable for households and businesses alike.
Digital currency a way to restore state control
Economist Zoltán Pogátsa noted that a central bank digital currency is not just a technological advancement but a way to restore state control over the currency. “Having a central bank digital currency essentially reclaims control over money for the state,” he remarked, explaining that most money in circulation today is issued through commercial bank lending, beyond effective state oversight.
The rise of “super apps” is also anticipated. According to György Mudri, CEO of FintechX Technologies, these apps will manage people’s lives beyond just banking, allowing financial transactions through integrated platforms.
Experts agreed that while cash usage will likely decline gradually, its complete disappearance is not yet feasible, nor is it an immediate goal for the central bank. Currently, 60% of transactions in Hungary are still cash-based, according to Zsolt Selmeczi, CEO of GIRO Plc. However, Pogátsa believes a cashless society should be encouraged, suggesting that in 30–40 years, the idea of carrying coins for payment will seem quaint.
By 2030, the MNB aims to reduce the proportion of cash transactions in Hungary to below 30%.
This week, the forint has weakened against the euro by over four units, primarily influenced by disappointing GDP data. The domestic currency opened the day at a level not seen since late 2022 and then dipped even lower during the morning hours. Against the British pound and the Swiss franc, the forint is at its weakest in over two years.
The forint is weakening uncontrollably
On Thursday morning, the forint opened above HUF 408 per euro, according to Portfolio. While the situation on the foreign exchange market does not indicate panic, the forint is experiencing a gradual decline. Investors betting on the currency’s depreciation are increasingly active, sensing no significant factors to support a strengthening of the Hungarian currency.
Today is expected to be quieter in the foreign exchange market compared to yesterday, which saw significant movements due to global GDP data. However, the Hungarian figures were disappointing.
Should panic develop, it could lead to dramatic sell-offs, Index reports. Dániel Molnár, chief analyst at the Makronóm Institute, noted that if panic arises, it could trigger a wave of selling and rapid depreciation. While the currency’s weakening trend did not start this week, Wednesday’s GDP data highlighted the potential for intervention from the Hungarian National Bank (NBH).
Despite efforts by National Economy Minister Márton Nagy to manage market expectations regarding the poor GDP figures, the forint took a hit as economic performance declined by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year.
The forint did strengthen slightly against the euro, reaching HUF 406.44, but this did not last long, as Thursday saw the euro rise above HUF 409 again.
According to Molnár, the Hungarian currency’s persistent weakness is due to international developments, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, and rising global natural gas prices. The GDP data dealt a significant blow, bringing the forint to levels last seen in autumn 2022.
Molnár emphasised that it is difficult to pinpoint a psychological threshold for the Hungarian currency’s value, as these are usually based on historical patterns. Significant depreciation could have inflationary effects through import prices and erode trust in forint assets, which could only be curbed by higher interest rates. In the event of further depreciation, NBH intervention is likely.
The weakening trend began around the end of September, influenced by rising interest rate expectations from the Fed and the market’s pricing in a potential interest rate reduction cycle from the ECB. The escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts has also adversely affected emerging market currencies. These combined factors have been sufficient to weaken the forint beyond the psychological barrier of HUF 400.
The Hungarian forint has taken a new hit, falling to a record low against the euro following the release of disappointing GDP data. The data paints a bleak picture of Hungary’s economy, showing a slowdown that has once again tipped the nation into a technical recession. According to reports from Portfolio.hu, the euro reached HUF 405.8 by 9 AM today, a level unseen since November 2022.
The latest currency drop follows an overnight spike, where the euro-forint exchange briefly surged to 405.7, setting a fresh low not experienced since January 2023, Portfolio reports. The downturn in the forint coincides with the announcement of Hungary’s third-quarter GDP figures, which revealed an economic contraction and an official return to technical recession status. Analysts are bracing for further fluctuations as additional data from the EU and the U.S. are set to be released, likely impacting market dynamics. For instance, Spanish economic data already spurred a rise in the euro, which in turn saw the forint gain slightly against the dollar.
Shocking GDP data signals technical recession for Hungary
Data from Hungary’s Central Statistical Office confirmed a 0.7% quarterly drop in GDP during Q3, a contraction much steeper than experts had predicted. Forecasts collected by Portfoliosuggested only a minor dip of 0.2%.
However, the reality proved far worse, as Hungary’s economy has now experienced back-to-back quarters of decline, putting it squarely back in a technical recession.
On an annual basis, GDP shrank by 0.7% after seasonal and calendar adjustments, and the raw data showed a larger 0.8% decline. For comparison, analysts had expected a modest growth of around 0.3%.
The last time Hungary faced such economic difficulties was during the energy crisis of late 2022. Since then, GDP growth has been inconsistent, with the economy shrinking in six out of the last nine quarters.
Economic Development Minister Márton Nagy had hinted at the likelihood of this downturn, suggesting during the Budapest Economic Forum that third-quarter growth would hover close to zero. This statement from the minister implied an anticipated economic decline compared to the previous quarter, leading market forecasts to be adjusted downwards.
However, today’s release still managed to shock investors, triggering a further plunge for the forint.
Market reactions and fluctuations
Following the release of GDP figures, the forint experienced a sharp decline against the euro, reaching a low point of 405.8, marking a level not seen since late 2022. Amidst the broader landscape of European economic updates, fluctuations in the currency market were noticeable. For instance, Spain’s strong economic performance, along with an unexpected inflation increase in October, bolstered the euro. France also reported better-than-expected GDP figures, prompting optimism around a potential economic recovery in Europe. With the European economy showing signs of life, the European Central Bank may delay interest rate cuts, which could strengthen the euro further against the dollar.
These developments have caused the forint to strengthen slightly against the dollar, with a 0.2% rise bringing the exchange rate to below 374 HUF/USD. However, the forint’s position against the euro remains largely unchanged, reflecting investor caution due to Hungary’s weak economic outlook.
The Hungarian forint has plunged to its weakest rate against the euro since December 2022, sparking concern among economists. Experts attribute this downturn largely to international factors, including a volatile geopolitical environment, but domestic policies also play a part. The future of the forint may depend heavily on the release of EU funds, though there remains uncertainty about their arrival.
Sharp decline in the forint
The week started poorly for the forint, with the currency hitting a four-month low against the dollar and sliding to HUF 404 per euro by the weekend—the weakest level in nearly two years. Csaba Szajlai, an analyst at Világgazdaság, pointed out in an interview with ATV News that the upcoming U.S. presidential election could influence the euro-forint exchange rate, with a possible Donald Trump victory expected to weaken the euro, while a win by another candidate might stabilise it.
Economist Csaba Lentner sees Hungary’s ongoing financial struggles with the EU as a primary factor in the forint’s decline, along with the Hungarian National Bank’s current losses totalling around HUF 3,000 billion (EUR 7.40 billion). Lentner believes that Hungary’s absence of EU funding is adding pressure to the currency, stating that the weak Hungarian currency could test the resilience of the economy, especially as the 2026 elections approach. Given the current economic climate, he suggests that the forint could fall as low as HUF 430 per euro.
Trust issues at play
Opposition MP Zoltán Vajda of the MSZP party argues that the Hungarian currency’s persistent decline has deep roots, noting that since 2010, the currency has lost nearly 50% of its value against the euro. According to Vajda, government actions have eroded investor confidence, worsening the currency’s situation. He added that if Hungary had already adopted the euro, people would no longer need to worry about the forint’s day-to-day volatility.
While both global events and government financial policy are weighing on the currency, experts caution that only short-term measures might bring any stabilisation. In the long term, however, a more substantial recovery for the Hungarian currency remains uncertain.
UPDATE: EUR/HUF exchange rate reaches 405
The forint fell to a new low on the second day of the week, hitting 405.231 on Tuesday at around noon, Economx reported. It then went back below 405 then reached that level again after 2 PM.
We have reported earlies that this week was not the heyday of the Hungarian forint. It happened before that the exchange rate increased above 400/EUR, but did not remain there permanently. Now, it seems the forint broke an important currency exchange level, and experts believe it can reach 410/EUR soon.
Hungarian forint broke exchange rate level
According to Index, external reasons like the price rise of gas resulted in a 10% weakening in the currency exchange rate of the Hungarian forint. Our currency was weaker against the euro in December 2022 and against the dollar in October 2023. On Saturday, Israel carried out attacks against Iran, which will probably make the situation worse. Currently, the exchange rate stands above 404/EUR.
Dániel Molnár, a senior analyst at Makronóm Institute, said the international atmosphere was the key reason behind the fall. The US dollar strengthened against the euro, which resulted in the weakening of the forint and the Czech koruna. Furthermore, the Hungarian National Bank did not increase the base interest rate on Tuesday. The MNB is in a reduction program but postponed base interest rate decrease for months, so the MNB did what it could to halt the negative trend.
György Matolcsy, the governor of the Hungarian National Bank. He will only intervene if a catastrophe happens. Photo: FB/MNB
The increasing probability of Trump’s success was also bad news for the forint since the American dollar is expected to strengthen due to the higher tariffs Trump promises. We covered the disadvantageous consequences of Trump’s victory on the Hungarian economy in THISarticle yesterday.
More disturbing news may emerge
According to Index, the forint changed its currency exchange level and is expected to remain in the 400-410/EUR range. Meanwhile, the US dollar will be in the 365-375 domain, Zoltán Varga, an analyst of Equilor Befektetési Ltd, said. Mr Varga added that the higher jobless rate the KSH shared on Friday was also disadvantageous for the forint.
Next week, multiple Hungarian and international economic data will emerge affecting the forint. For example, the Q3 Hungarian GDP growth data, the GDP increase of Germany, the USA and the Eurozone, the number of American employees employed in the private sector, the German inflation, the Japanese base interest rate, the Eurozone inflation data, etc.
S+P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘BBB-/A-3’ long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Hungary in a scheduled review on Friday. The outlook is stable. In a statement released late Friday, the National Economy Ministry attributed the high degree of confidence in Hungary in the reports of all three big credit rating agencies to the stability and resilience of the economy. However, that news did not help the Hungarian forint. On Friday, when the news emerged, the exchange rate was below 404, now it is above.
New tendency: Hungarians keep their savings in euro
According to economx.hu, it is understandable why many Hungarians decide to keep their money in euros instead of forints. Apart from the psychological effect of seeing the 400/EUR exchange rate, the Orbán cabinet plans significant money transfers for the voters before the 2026 general elections. Furthermore, most EU funds are still unavailable for Hungary, and it does not seem the Hungarian government will agree with the European Commission and settle the controversial issues soon.
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Orbán cabinet introducesstricter rules on guest worker employment
S&P is set to announce Hungary’s credit rating late tonight, a decision that could exacerbate the downward trend of the forint. On 23 October, the Hungarian currency reached a 22-month low against the euro, a position it has struggled to recover from since. The last time the forint was this weak was back in January 2023.
Could Trump’s defeat aid the forint?
The forint has proven vulnerable to external shocks, with recent pressures arising partly from the U.S. presidential election campaign, according to portfolio.hu. The campaign’s impact on emerging markets has put additional pressure on the currency, but interestingly, a Democratic victory could potentially ease this strain on the forint.
Interestingly, a Democratic victory in Washington could help the forint recover from its current downturn. However, the Hungarian government has placed all its bets on a Trump victory. Prime Minister Orbán and his cabinet hope that a Trump presidency could alleviate the pressure from some Western powers on Hungary regarding the war in Ukraine and the illegal migration crisis. Orbán frequently asserts that Trump would bring peace to Ukraine, which would help the Hungarian economy flourish once again.
On the other hand, the Hungarian PM rarely mentions Trump’s anti-China policies, which could lead to clashes between Budapest and Washington. The Hungarian government is actively working to establish, maintain, and expand its relations with China in various areas, including education, the economy, railway upgrades, and even financing Hungary’s growing debt.
Viktor Orbán and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Photo: FB/Orbán
Conversely, a Republican victory in both Congress and the White House could lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, presenting new challenges for the Hungarian currency.
Can the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) stabilise the forint?
The Hungarian National Bank has pledged to keep the base interest rate steady for at least the next three months in an effort to support the Hungarian currency. Portfolio.hu suggests that further intervention from the MNB may only occur if the forint weakens uncontrollably. Some analysts predict the forint could strengthen to around 400/EUR by year-end, but a sustained softening is anticipated for 2025, with the exchange rate likely remaining above this threshold.
György Matolcsy, the governor of the Hungarian National Bank. His term will end in early-2025. Photo: FB/MNB
The forint’s decline is partly due to Hungary’s sluggish GDP growth and ongoing delays in receiving EU funds. Poland’s zloty, though also under pressure, has held steadier due to Poland’s stronger growth and EU financial support.
Will S&P retain Hungary’s investment-grade status?
According to Portfolio.hu, S&P is likely to maintain Hungary’s investment-grade rating with a stable outlook, following a similar move by Japan’s R&I on 22 October.
The forint traded at 404.22 to the euro around 10:00 on Friday morning, weakening from 402.78 late on Thursday. The current exchange rate stands at 403.75. The forint also eased to 373.50 from 372.92 against the dollar and slipped to 431.24 from 430.31 against the Swiss franc.
In June, all three major credit rating agencies—Fitch, Moody’s, and Scope Ratings—maintained Hungary’s position in the investment grade category.
Photo: Daily News Hungary
UPDATE: Euro above 404
The forint traded at 404.08 to the euro around 5:30 in the evening on Friday, slipping from 402.78 late Thursday. The forint eased to 373.44 from 372.92 against the dollar. It weakened to 431.12 from 430.31 to the Swiss franc.
UPDATE 2: S&P decision and reactions
S+P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘BBB-/A-3’ long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Hungary in a scheduled review on Friday. The outlook is stable. However, the positive news did not help the forint. On Saturday morning, the exchange rate is still 403.92/EUR.
“The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Hungary’s economic recovery, ongoing disinflation, and stabilising cost of debt will support the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts in the medium term, allowing the government’s debt burden…to stabilise,” the rating agency said.
S+P sees Hungary’s fiscal deficits narrowing from 2025 and averaging 3.7pc of GDP through 2027, taking into consideration strengthening economic prospects and active consolidation measures totaling about 1.3pc of GDP for 2024.
S+P expects Hungary’s state debt ratio to reach 74.6pc of GDP in 2024 and projects interest spending to represent 9pc of government revenue on average over 2025-2027.
S+P’s baseline expectation is for inflation to continue to subside and the current account to remain in modest surpluses, allowing the National Bank of Hungary to cautiously normalise monetary policy.
S+P puts GDP growth at 1.6pc in 2024, before accelerating to around 3.0pc in 2025 as investment growth and external demand recover, alongside “enduring private consumption”.
S+P said the growth outlook remained “somewhat uncertain” as the country’s open and trade-intensive economy remained susceptible to external developments, including growth performance in Germany, Hungary’s key trading partner, as well as any spill-over effects from geopolitical tensions on energy or other key import prices.
Hungary’s constrained relations with the EU could also lead to delayed disbursement of associated funding, it added.
Hungary has access to a total of EUR 12.2bn of cohesion funds for the EU’s 2021-2027 funding cycle.
FDI as a share of total investments is expected to pick up on big projects in the electric vehicle sector, S+P said.
In a statement released late Friday, the National Economy Ministry attributed the high degree of confidence in Hungary in the reports of all three big credit rating agencies to the stability and resilience of the economy.
The economy is growing faster than the European Union average and beating economic performance in Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, Latvia and even Germany, the ministry said.
Hungary has moved past a difficult period and positive signs point to an economic turnaround, it added.
GDP growth is expected to reach 1.5pc in 2024, the ministry said, pointing to improving retail sales and tourism data, indicating growing consumption. The recovery of the domestic economy is supported by high employment, a dynamic increase in real wages and low inflation, it added.
The government aims to boost GDP growth to 3-6pc, adopting a policy of economic neutrality and rolling out a new economic policy action plan that aims to boost purchasing power, ensure affordable housing and upscale SMEs, the ministry said.
The 21 measures could lift GDP growth over 3pc in Q1 2025, it added.
In a post on social media late Friday, Finance Minister Mihaly Varga noted that Hungary’s sovereign rating had been reviewed by credit rating agencies close to 20 times since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Each time the agencies have established that the economy is resilient and the conditions for growth are in place, putting Hungary in the investment grade category, he added.
Hungary’s economy is returning to the path of sustained growth it was on before the pandemic, he said.
Read also:
Forint plummets to over 403 against euro, hitting 2-year low – read more HERE
Hungary’s minimum wage could realistically reach EUR 1,000 by 2028, saysemployment secretary
Sándor Czomba, the state secretary for employment policy, said there was a “realistic chance” for the minimum wage to reach EUR 1,000/month and the average gross wage to climb to HUF 1 million/month by 2028, speaking on public television on Thursday.
Czomba told news channel M1 that the targets could be reached if GDP growth accelerated and inflation stayed predictably low. He added that talks between the government, employers, and unions about next year’s minimum wage increase and wage developments for the coming three years were continuing.
The government aims to raise the minimum wage to 50pc of the level of the average wage, excluding bonuses, in 2027, he said. That would bring the minimum wage to HUF 370,000-375,000/month, according to calculations at present, he added.
Achieving that level would require annual increases of 12pc, although the exact scale of the rise would depend on GDP growth, he said, adding that consensus between the sides had been reached on that point.
The government expects GDP to grow 3-4pc in 2025 and 4-5pc in 2026, he said.
On Wednesday afternoon, the Hungarian forint dropped to over 403 against the euro, marking its weakest level since September 2022 as the currency continued to decline on international markets. The forint is also struggling against the US dollar, hitting similar lows.
Hungarian forint plummets to two-year low
Although the forint saw slight gains in the morning, it began to weaken by midday, with the situation worsening in the afternoon. By 6:45 PM, the exchange rate had dropped to 403.29 forints per euro.
According to Portfolio, trading on the Hungarian stock exchange was halted due to the 23 October national holiday, making the currency more vulnerable to fluctuations.
Just two weeks ago, the forint had also surpassed the 402 mark, hitting a rate of 402.23 against the euro.
The forint crossed the 400 threshold on 4 October for the first time in six months, following a decline that began on 2 October as a reaction to the conflict in the Middle East.
The Monetary Council of the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) decided to leave the central bank base unchanged at 6.50pc at a monthly policy meeting on Tuesday.
At the previous policy meeting, in September, the Council had cut the rate by 25bp. The Council also left the O/N deposit rate at 5.50pc and the O/N collateralised loan rate at 7.50pc. The rates mark the ends of the central bank’s symmetric interest rate corridor. In a statement released after the meeting, the Council said the domestic inflation outlook was consistent with the projection in the NBH’s latest quarterly Inflation Report, published in September, but pointed to an increase in upside risks to inflation on the back of deteriorating international investor sentiment and volatile commodity prices.
“Re-intensifying geopolitical tensions, volatile financial market developments and the risks to the outlook for inflation warrant a pause in cutting interest rates,” the policy makers said. “The external interest rate environment may ease more slowly than previously expected, while the expected interest rate paths of the world’s leading central banks are still surrounded by uncertainty,” they added. Looking ahead, the Council said a “careful and patient approach” to monetary policy was still warranted and decisions on the base rate would be taken in a “cautious and data-driven manner”.
Forint strengthens after the decision
The decision of the Monetary Council did not come as a surprise: after the words of Barnabás Virág, Vice President in charge of Monetary Policy, it was certain that interest rates would be kept on hold, Portfolio writes. Nevertheless, the forint reacted to the announcement by strengthening to around 400/EUR.
The Hungarian forint is at a 4-month low against the American dollar. The exchange rate stands around 370/USD these days. The last time it was that high was in June. What can we expect? Will the euro continue to strengthen as well?
Hungarian forint struggling against euro, dollar
The Hungarian forint started a weakening period again in the last few weeks. The EUR/HUF currency exchange rate is slowly but unstoppably climbing again. Even though the EU’s official currency was at a one-year low on 26 May at 384.39/EUR, it is above 400/EUR again, and it seems we have to get used to that exchange rate. The forint has been around 400 since the beginning of this month.
The trend is the same concerning the American dollar. Despite being at a 6-month low in August and September, the American currency reached a 4-month high in October with HUF 368-370/USD. The American dollar peaked in June and April, with exchange rates above 370/USD. In January, we only had to pay HUF 344.7 for a dollar.
Forint-USD. Photo: PrtScr/Google
Forint-euro. Photo: PrtScr/Google
According to the MTI, the forint traded at 400.05 to the euro around 10:00 in the morning on Friday, little changed from its rate of 400.23 late Thursday. The forint edged up to 369.07 from 369.33 against the dollar. It firmed to 425.81 from 427.10 to the Swiss franc.
Hungary’s risk remains high
Barnabás Virág, the deputy governor of the Hungarian National Bank, said at the annual conference of Portfolio yesterday that the American economy was in unexpectedly good shape. Therefore, the FED can introduce a moderate interest rate reduction course. The result is a strengthening dollar against the euro, which is bad news for emerging currencies like the forint.
Meanwhile, Hungary’s risk margin increased compared to the second half of the 2010s. Our risk margin is higher by 140 base points than it was then. Risk evasion from investors is strengthening, and geopolitical conflicts are escalating, which is not good news for emerging markets like Hungary because investors move their money to the safest currency in the world, the American dollar. If the USA gets involved in one of the conflicts, the EUR/HUF exchange rate can easily exceed the 410 level, hvg.hu wrote.
Will the weakening of the forint continue? Photo: Pexels
Sometimes even a well-formed sentence is enough
Mr Virág added that the Hungarian National Bank might keep its base interest rate decrease programme halted even after October. That statement helped the forint to strengthen from 402/EUR to 400/EUR.
The forint is in bad shape even compared to regional currencies
HVG tried to explain why the forint has lost so much of its value compared to other regional currencies (Polish zloty, Czech koruna, etc.) since 2004. They shared two shocking pieces of data as an introduction. When Hungary joined the European Union (1 May 2004), we had to pay HUF 250 for one euro. Currently, that exchange rate is 400, which means it lost 60% of its value.
Meanwhile, Czechia’s koruna strengthened. In 2004, they paid 32 koruna for one euro. Now, the exchange rate is only 25.3. Comparing the Hungarian currency with the koruna is even more shocking. In May 2004, a Czech koruna cost 7.74 forint, while now we have to pay 15.86. That is a more than 100% weakening.
High state debt, Orbán’s supermajorities, huge state investments
One of the reasons is the high Hungarian state debt and the fact that 30% of it is in foreign currency. If the forint weakens, our state debt grows instantly. For example, compared to H2 2023, the Hungarian state debt grew by HUF 504.1 billion in H1 2024.
Another reason is the government’s already announced pre-election money transfers. In 2022, the Orbán cabinet generated Europe’s biggest inflation by distributing thousands of billions of forint, gaining the fourth consecutive supermajority. Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party is just 2% behind Fidesz. Therefore, the Orbán government may prepare an even more significant money transfer before the elections in 2026.
Investing in Hungary is even higher because of the huge investments of the Orbán regime, like buying Budapest Airport or building the Belgrade-Budapest railway line.
New budget only after US presidential elections
The Hungarian government regularly says the weak forint boosts the exports and the economy. However, HVG argues that its disadvantages are far greater than its advantages.
The Orbán government places the country’s diplomatic and economic future in Trump’s victory in the November presidential election. For example, the government will only submit the 2025 budget after the election. In the last 14 years, annual budget bills were always submitted the previous May. That meant, of course, that the government regularly amended the budget since the 2025 budget accepted by the parliament e.g. in May 2014 needed several modifications in the next year.
Hungary’s future is highly dependent on Trump’s victory in November. Photo: FB/Orbán
Read also:
Good news from the Hungarian economy: National Bank prepared to protect the Forint, inflation likely to fall – read more HERE
Hungarian central bank launches new 200-forint coin alongside commemorative coins – PHOTOS and details HERE
When the Hungarian forint began losing value in 2022, the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) intervened by significantly raising the base interest rate to protect the national currency. Since then, the Bank has been gradually lowering the base rate to help revive the economy’s struggling engine. However, global developments may once again necessitate action to defend the forint, and it appears the Bank is ready to do so.
Hungarian National Bank poised to defend the Forint
According to portfolio.hu, the Hungarian National Bank may adopt a more cautious approach to its next base rate decision, expected in October. This caution is partly due to global uncertainties, such as the upcoming US presidential election and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.
Barnabás Virág, a Deputy Governor of the Hungarian National Bank, elaborated on this during a presentation for investors. He explained that the Bank’s capacity for manoeuvre with regard to lowering the base rate in October is becoming more limited. Key factors influencing the Bank’s decision include inflation in Hungary, regional economic performance, and the global risk environment.
György Matolcsy, the governor of the Hungarian National Bank. Photo: FB/MNB
The situation in the Middle East has escalated, China has unveiled measures to stimulate its economy, and the United States has reported stronger-than-expected economic data. These factors have increased the risk of higher inflation, while geopolitical uncertainties have already driven the forint above the 400/EUR level. As a result, the Bank’s more cautious stance is understandable.
Hungarian government aims for economic growth
As Hungary moves into the campaign period for the 2026 general election, government officials, including Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, have been emphasising the need for economic growth, rising wages, and increased investment. This would require an injection of capital into the economy. However, despite foreign investment, domestic consumption has not risen as the government had anticipated.
Source: depositphotos.com
Due to the high base interest rate, many Hungarians have opted to keep their savings in banks or even abroad. While the government would like to reduce interest rates to stimulate consumption and boost growth, lowering rates too far could make the forint even more volatile. With numerous global and regional uncertainties at play, the exchange rate could easily rise, leading to soaring inflation—a vicious cycle that would be difficult to break.
Inflation may fall this autumn and winter
Analysts consulted by portfolio.hu believe that inflation continued to decline in September, with the median inflation rate likely to be around 3%. Fresh data on the subject is expected to be released tomorrow. If these predictions are correct, it would mark the first time in 3.5 years that inflation in Hungary has fallen below 3%. The last time inflation was below this level was in January 2021, indicating that Hungary’s inflationary pressures began to mount well before the war in Ukraine.
In December, analysts expect the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) to report a year-on-year inflation rate of 4.5%, lower than the previously forecast 5%. However, portfolio.hu noted that inflation in December 2025 may end up higher than currently expected. For 2024, yearly inflation is projected to be around 3.8%.
UPDATE: Policy makers acknowledged factors allowing ‘careful’ rate reduction at September meeting
National Bank of Hungary (NBH) rate-setters agreed that continuing disinflation, a looser external monetary policy environment, the country’s improved risk perception, and a gradual improvement in confidence among economic players allowed a “careful” reduction in the base rate at a policy meeting in September, but still argued “in general” for maintaining a restrictive policy stance, the minutes from the meeting released on Wednesday show. The NBH’s Monetary Council voted unanimously at the meeting on September 24 to cut the base rate by 25bp to 6.50pc, after weighing an option to keep the base rate on hold, too.
“The Council considered these options primarily based on the outlook for inflation, economic agents’ precaution and changes in the external monetary policy and risk environment,” reaching a consensus that disinflation was expected to continue over the monetary policy horizon, while pointing to a “somewhat looser” external monetary policy environment, a “slight” improvement in the country’s risk perception and the gradual recovery of confidence among economic agents, according to the minutes. “In the Council’s assessment, all these factors allowed a careful reduction in interest rates. However, members in general argued for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance and preserving financial market stability,” the minutes show.
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Hungarian central bank launches new 200-forint coin alongside commemorative coins – PHOTOS and more in THISarticle
Experts worriedthat PM Orbán’s brutal wage rise would bring inflation and a HUF 500/EUR exchange rate
The National Bank of Hungary (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, MNB) has announced the release of new commemorative coins, including a redesigned version of the circulating 200-forint coin. Two other commemorative coins with face values of HUF 30,000 (EUR 75) and HUF 7,500 (EUR 19) will also be introduced, each honouring the martyrs of Arad.
Commemorative coins honouring the martyrs of Arad
On 6 October, which marks the memorial day of the martyrs of Arad, the MNB will issue a large, 30,000-forint silver coin with a 13-sided inner rim, along with a 7,500-forint version made from non-ferrous metals, Világgazdaság reports. These coins are being released to commemorate the 175th anniversary of the execution of the martyrs who sacrificed their lives for Hungarian independence.
In addition to the commemorative coins, a special edition of the 200-forint coin will also be issued in honour of Lajos Batthyány, Hungary’s first constitutional prime minister. One million copies of this unique 200-forint coin will be put into circulation, while the silver commemorative coins will be produced in a limited run of 6,000 pieces, and the non-ferrous metal versions in 8,000 pieces. The commemorative designs were created by coin artist István Kósa, while sculptor Zoltán Kovács crafted the redesigned side of the 200-forint coin.
175 years ago, on 6 October 1849, 13 Hungarian military officers were executed in Arad due to their role in the 1848-1849 War of Independence. In remembrance of the 175th anniversary of their execution, as well as that of Lajos Batthyány, MNBwill issue a commemorative edition of the 200-forint coin, a large, 30,000-forint silver coin with a 13-sided inner rim, and a 7,500-forint non-ferrous variant will also be introduced on this national day of mourning.
200-forint coins to look different
Photo: MNB
Photo: MNB
The commemorative version of the 200-forint coin will retain the same face side as the current coin in circulation, but instead of the familiar Chain Bridge design, the reverse will feature a portrait of Count Lajos Batthyány (see above). This image, based on Miklós Barabás’ famous oil painting, extends to the coin’s edge. Below the portrait, you’ll find the year of minting, “2024”, on the left side, with “BATTHYÁNY” inscribed above, and “MAGYARORSZÁG” on the right.
One million copies of the commemorative 200-forint coin will be minted.
“Lajos Batthyány and the 13 Martyrs of Arad” commemorative coin
Face value of HUF 30,000, silver coin. Photo: MNB
Face value of HUF 7,500, non-ferrous metal coin. Photo: MNB
To honour the significance of this anniversary, the MNB will also release commemorative coins named “Lajos Batthyány and the 13 Martyrs of Arad” with face values of 30,000 forints in silver and 7,500 forints in non-ferrous. These coins are intended to serve as a tribute to the martyrs who fought for Hungary’s independence and self-determination. They will not be put into circulation. The designs of the silver and non-ferrous versions are identical, differing only in face value.
Both sides of the “Lajos Batthyány and the 13 Martyrs of Arad” coins feature a 13-sided inner rim, symbolising the reason for their release. The obverse side displays a half-length portrait of Lajos Batthyány, based on Miklós Barabás’ painting. To the left is the inscription “MAGYARORSZÁG” (Hungary), while on the right, in three lines, are the face values “30000” and “7500”, the word “FORINT”, and the mint mark “BP.” Below the portrait is Batthyány’s signature, inscribed vertically.
Reverse side of the silver coin. Photo: MNB
Reverse side of the non-ferrous metal coin. Photo: MNB
On the reverse side, a stylised representation of a kopjafa (a Hungarian memorial column) appears on the left, with the date “1849” inscribed at the top to mark the year of the martyrs’ execution (see above). Below this are the names of the 13 martyrs, listed in two columns, and at the bottom, the minting year “2024”. To the right, a part of the Arad Liberty Statue, created by sculptor György Zala, is depicted. At the top right of the reverse is the inscription “ARADI VÉRTANÚK” (Martyrs of Arad), and the designer’s signature, István Kósa, appears at the bottom.
As with previous releases, these coins will be produced in limited quantities: 6,000 silver coins and 8,000 non-ferrous coins.
To ensure the wide distribution and appreciation of these commemorative pieces, the 30,000-forint silver coin will be available for its face value for three months following its release, while the non-ferrous version will be available for one year, starting on 7 October 2024. The coins can be purchased at the Hungarian Mint’s shop (7 Báthory Street, District V., Budapest) or through their online store.
PM Orbán talked about a shockingly quick wage rise in Hungary between 2025 and 2028 in his latest interview in the Kossuth Rádió. He said the average Hungarian wage should reach HUF 1 million, the minimum wage should be EUR 1,000, and the minimum wage would equal 50% of the average income. The maths only makes sense if the forint-euro currency exchange rate worsens significantly.
450-500 EUR/HUF exchange rate may come by 2027-2028
Officials of the Hungarian government and PM Viktor Orbán talked about the significance of salary rise in Hungary. That is not surprising: in spring 2026, there will be general elections in Hungary, and Orbán has a challenger, Péter Magyar, whose support is steeply increasing.
Orbán and his government determined three numbers in that regard. They said the average wage should be HUF 1 million (EUR 2,500), the minimum wage should be EUR 1,000, and the minimum wage should be 50% of the average salary. The calculation’s result is HUF 450/EUR, which is astonishing considering the public outrage that followed the end-2022 forint historic forint fall when the Hungarian currency reached 426/EUR. Thanks to the Hungarian National Bank’s intervention and the sky-high base interest rate they introduced, the forint stabilised at the 390/EUR level.
More paper money with less value? Source: Pixabay
If we bring the regular average wage in Hungary into the calculation, which, experience shows, is 10% below the average salary (HUF 900,000), the currency exchange rate increases to 500/EUR.
Before, the Hungarian government talked about a HUF 375,000 (EUR 933) gross minimum wage as their target until 2027. However, Orbán’s wage rise means the minimum wage should increase by 50% in the next three years. That would be a 16% annual rise concerning the average wage and 14.5% in the case of the minimum wage, provided the euro exchange rate remains at HUF 400/EUR.
Experts worried that the wage rise would bring inflation and forint fall
Only a powerful Hungarian economy could generate such an increase in the well-being of the Hungarians. However, the Hungarian economy is struggling. We wrote about the falling industrial output and a possible recession HERE.
The other option is skyrocketing inflation, which would burn the “extra money” of the Hungarian households, just like it did between 2022 and 2024.
Since Orbán wants outstanding economic growth (3-6%) in the next few years, the Hungarian National Bank will not be able to stop the fall of the forint with a high base interest rate.
As a result, both Portfolioand G7suggest the government’s aims are not coherent. If they want robust economic and wage growth, they will need to sacrifice the forint and create inflation. Another consequence can be that many small and medium companies will cease operation because of the wage-price spiral.
What’s more, Bank of America analysts wrotethat the forint is significantly overvalued, and a HUF 430/EUR currency exchange rate was realistic. They added that the Hungarian economy’s productivity stagnated, and the difference between the interest rates of Hungary and the EU decreased.
National Federation of Workers’ Councils agrees with govt targets
The National Federation of Workers’ Councils agrees that the minimum wage needs to be increased to the equivalent of 1,000 euros and the average wage from the current amount, some 600,000 forints (EUR 1,500) to 1 million forints, and that this would be possible within 2-3 years, the organisation said on Friday in response to an announcement by the prime minister earlier in the day.
PM Orbán told public radio on Friday morning that a cabinet meeting earlier this week discussed ways to achieve the 1,000 euro minimum wage and the increase of the average wage to 1 million forints. Orban said the plans could be fulfilled if they managed to agree with employers and employees.
The National Federation of Workers’ Councils said it would offer all the professional help needed for the plan’s success. It is important that social partners including workers’ interest representation bodies and trade union alliances are involved in the process to achieve a more active coordination of interests, and it could result in a reform of regulations on minimum wages, it added.
Read also:
Hungarian forint doing something unprecedented: further slip expected – read more HERE
