Most polls have recorded a lead for the Tisza Party over Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz since last November, with only pro-government institutions showing otherwise. The latest Medián poll also indicates a significant advantage for Péter Magyar’s party. However, with seven months remaining until the election, there is still room for changes, and always the possibility of pollster error. Political scientist Gábor Tóka from Vox Populi has analysed the latest data to assess the likelihood of a Tisza or Fidesz victory. His findings suggest Orbán’s party will need to accelerate its efforts substantially to catch up.
Open threat to allies?
At the end of his address in Kötcse, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán concluded by saying that nothing would be forgotten, everything would be documented, and all would be settled. Speaking to Balzac, he explained that the message was directed internally: towards those reluctant to fully support the overarching goal of electoral victory. This includes businesspeople close to the government, as well as local and national politicians, and mayors.
Such a forthright internal warning is unprecedented—although it’s worth noting that this was the first time the Kötcse speech was broadcast. In 2018, Orbán only threatened the opposition; even his infamous bugging speech was aimed at them. If there are now messages being directed inward, it could signal serious issues. Perhaps the independent pollsters are right: nearly all of them currently record a dominant lead for Tisza and a dramatic shortfall for Fidesz.
- PM Orbán says Tisza would only bring aggression – video
Massive handouts have begun: but will it be enough?
According to political analyst Gábor Török, it’s not the latest figures but the trends that matter. Looking at the summer, Fidesz could find some cause for optimism. The data suggest that Tisza’s surge has stalled and—though within the margin of error—Fidesz has begun to close the gap. At the very least, the divide is no longer growing.
- Hungary’s Péter Magyar unveils tax program: lower burdens for workers, wealth tax on the richest
According to Péter Tölgyessy, the government’s already-announced and planned massive giveaways are intended to shift public sentiment. However, given the high level of public dissatisfaction and a five-year economic downturn, he believes such a reversal is unlikely. The government has failed to make a strong start, inflation remains high, and it has yet to find a way to stimulate consumption and thus increase satisfaction.
Gap narrows between Tisza and Fidesz
The latest data from Medián also show that while Fidesz support has risen by 2% and voters are slightly more optimistic, the Tisza Party still maintains a 13% lead among decided voters. Péter Magyar’s party would currently secure 51%, while Fidesz would gain 38%, with no other party crossing the parliamentary threshold. This would mark an unprecedented development in Hungarian parliamentary history, excluding periods of dictatorship. The big loser this summer is the Democratic Coalition (DK), now polling below 2%.
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More voters still consider the Tisza Party the likely winner, but Fidesz has seen a growing number of supporters expecting its victory, and public satisfaction with the government has increased by 2% since early summer.
Tóka Gábor summarised the latest opinion polling data by noting that Fidesz sits at 36–38%, while Tisza is between 44–50%. “The broader spread in TISZA’s results is largely due to stronger showings by smaller parties in Závecz’s survey, unlike the other two institutions where parties like DK are fading, and the Two-Tailed Dog Party barely scrapes the threshold,” he added.
Mandate projection spells trouble for Fidesz
Tóka has also produced a mandate projection based on the data, and it’s a concerning read for Orbán. He estimates the likelihood of a government change at 91–95% if elections were held today. The most probable scenario currently sees Tisza achieving a near two-thirds majority (131 seats: 85 constituency and 46 list), while Fidesz would capture around one-third (67 seats). Only one other MP would enter Parliament—a national minority representative, Imre Ritter of the German community.
As one moves from decided voters to the general population, Tisza’s lead narrows. The chance of a two-thirds Tisza victory stands at 47%, while Fidesz’s odds remain between just 4–6%. A Fidesz win appears highly unlikely and would only translate into 104 seats.
Further articles on the upcoming 2026 elections.
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Fidesz is not going convince anyone anymore by handing out bags of potatoes to pensioners. Does a 100 euro food card make up for how much you may have fallen behind over the past four years? How much more expensive is everything and how much worse are public services that the government provides? Is Fidesz that desperate that dictator Orban has to resort to threats to maintain loyalty? Disgusting Pedofidesz. Their end is coming.
Larry, I think you’re absolutely on point.
Reposting in part: PolakGollumLarry is just like Gollum, obsessively blaming Fidesz for everything wrong in his life. He hisses and rants about how Hungary’s ruining Europe, while completely ignoring the mess he’s living in. Like Gollum clinging to the Ring, PolakGollumLarry clings to his scapegoat (Fidesz) because it’s easier than facing the uncomfortable truth: his own country’s politics are a disaster, and his life’s a mess of his own making. But here’s the thing: blaming Fidesz for everything might feel good at the moment, but it’s overly simplistic and blinds him to the broader, more complex issues at play. The economic challenges are real, but the situation is far more nuanced than a single government or leader. By reducing the entire crisis to Fidesz is ruining everything, he’s not addressing the deeper, structural problems in Hungary, nor is he facing the uncomfortable truth that the problems in his own (online) life may have more to do with his own choices than the actions of a distant government.
He won’t look in the mirror, just like Gollum never saw how the Ring was destroying him. Instead, he keeps pointing at Fidesz, screaming that they’re the cause of it all, while he’s just as lost in his own mess. His obsession with blaming others is his precious, but it only keeps him trapped in a cycle of self-pity and delusion. In reality, Hungary’s challenges can’t be solved by scapegoating Fidesz; it’s about understanding the larger context, where both domestic and international forces shape the situation. But PolakGollumLarry is too consumed by his vendetta to acknowledge this. He’s like a person drowning but fixated on blaming the water rather than swimming to safety.
In the end, PolakGollumLarry is just a sad figure, like Gollum, fighting a battle that isn’t even real. He won’t fix his online life or his country because it’s easier to scream at a distant enemy than face what’s really wrong. To truly grasp what’s going wrong, it’s essential to pursue the truth, even if it’s uncomfortable or inconvenient, letting go of what you want to believe, resisting the temptation to cherry-pick information, and confronting the tension between your beliefs and the reality in front of you.
But PolakGollumLarry, like his namesake, will never achieve this. His obsession with Fidesz blinds him to the truth, trapping him in a cycle of self-justification and convenient narratives. He’d rather keep fighting a battle with a ghost of his own making than confront the complex reality that’s staring him in the face. Ssssss… It’s all Fidesz’s fault, yessss..those nasty fidesziss, those nasty Hungariansss…Get a grip. Get a life. Come back when you are in a sane state of mind and are able to contribute anything moderate. Because let us not get our hopes up too much with PolakGollumLarry.
Hehe… so much for your ”productive engagement..”
Nice rant though. Keep them coming. Much more entertaining that your AI fueled essays.
Péter:
“…it would be far more productive to engage with thoughtful arguments, raise valid questions, and propose better ideas, rather than resorting to name-calling or equating opposing views with extremism.”
https://dailynewshungary.com/another-huge-protest-in-budapests-downtown/#comments
Shooting messengers abusively who offer reality?
Peter, why can’t you make your point without resorting to personal insults? Reposting an earlier post (moreover, containing the aforementioned insults) is also a poor look and contributes nothing to the debate.
It’s pretty confusing and challenging to see where even the slightest bit of any of that comes from. It also seems unhealthily obsessive, speaking of Gollum and rings and whatnot.
I have NO reason by admission, that in my commentary contributions to DNH that I “play the man” being the individual Victor Mihaly. Orban who I believe, over the course of the past (15) fifteen years, with his Fidesz Government inclusive of the “Creed” of the Fidesz Political Party have DELIVERED the country, to a Perilous place, a future for generations of Hungarians, that will be of humongous CHALLENGE.
Victor Mihaly.
Orban in my opinion can NEVER be Appeased for what his “Legacy” we witness it as I commentate, will LEAVE on Hungary, that will be POWERFUL in the DISASTER imposed on Hungary, by his Leadership – Prime Ministerial time in office, time of his Political “presence” in Hungary.
Luke wrote – 6: 39 -42 that captures, coming from a “biblical” perspective explanation that captures muchly the on-going FAILING’s of the Victor Mihaly. Orban that have escalated over his (15) fifteen years in POWER as the Prime Minister of Hungary, that have DELIVERED the MESS we Hungary as a country represents to-day.
Luke wrote;
“How can you say to your Brother,
Brother, let me remove that splinter in your eye
When you don’t even notice the wooden beam in your own eye ?
You hypocrite !
Remove the wooden beam from your eye first;
then you will see clearly
to remove the splinter in your Brothers eye.”
Prevalent dates in the life, the Political life, all that Victor Mihaly. Orban has OWNERSHIP of that “beyond reasonable doubt” confirm to me, that in “his being” the conduct of his Political Life, arising from the “core of his being” is that his Character is one that has practiced being a Hypocrite and of a “Judas” a betrayer.
The dates are – 19th June 1989 and 20th August 1991 – he SPOKE – he was present and LISTENED but NEVER has PRACTICED what these (2) two dates – the message – his message – his LISTENING was but that he, Victor Mihaly. Orban choose to be a Hypocrite and a “Judas” the complete OPPOSITE.
If I was to “commission” – Leonardo De Vinci – to “as this point in time” paint a replication of one of his famous works – “The Last Supper” – that at the table, captured no human faces but just the FLAG’s of the 26 countrys of the European Union, the “Judas” being Hungary, through Victor Mihaly. Orban being EXCLUDED that (26) flags – hold the FUTURE of Democracy but the (1) one flag of omission Hungary through the acts of Hypocrisy, through “Judas” practice – would be De Vinci commission.
Hungary – Victor Mihaly. Orban non deserving to “sit” at table, as he has FAILED dismally – to “come to the table” to grow unity, a to-getherness of the European Union – the millions of HUMAN beings from “all stations in life” – but to play a POSTION dominated by being a Hypocrite and a “Judas” to the word – DEMOCRACY.
Spring of 2026 – Hungary speak through the POWER invested, given us, GRANTED us – through DEMOCRACY in re-moving from POWER, from office Victor Mihaly. Orban – his Fidesz Government, the “toxic culture” that DOMINATES in-side Hungary of the Fidesz Political Party supported and approved the existence of the functionality of the Oligarchy.
“Be Mindful of the Blessing that Freedom, which you, my beloved Brothers and Sisters of Hungary you have DEFINITIVELY secured – means to your FUTURE.
Cherish it and make Good use of your Liberty.”
Saint Pope John Paul – Heros Square – 20th August 1991 – his Pontifical Sermon at the Celebration of his Pontifical Mass that seated FRONT row, in the VIP area – Mr & Mrs V. M. Orban.
Never to be – APPEASED.
Blijkbaar is dit een links medium, Als Buitenlander die hier zijn met hard werken bijegespaard pensioen komt opdoen,weet ik dat de Tizla partij en Peter Magyar een handpop zijn van de onverkozen EU commissie , Die hopen dat met de Tizla Partij de deuren ver gaan openstaan voor de import van miljoenen Moslimmannen die de Jihad en omvolking gaan uitvoeren, Net zoals in Mijn land België waar dagelijks onschuldige mensen worden vermoord door Illegale islamieten uit Syrie,Afganistan, en Arabie, Niks hier over in deze media !! Tot zover de onafhankelijkheid vanndit medium