The Hungarian forint has seen fluctuation in the past months like never before. We have seen the dollar cost almost HUF 450, we have seen the euro cost EUR 432. Right now, the USD/HUF rate is at 368, the EUR/HUF rate is at 394. The rock bottom seems far now, but how confident can we be?
Novekedes.hu, the “entrepreneurs’ website”, interviewed banking analysts on the possible direction the Hungarian currency will take in the future. The analysts of Erste Bank, ING Bank, K&H Bank and Bankholding talked about their visions concerning the forint. We will now summarise their comments.
Orsolya Nyeste, Senior Macroeconomic Analyst at Erste Bank, said that the Hungarian forint has been able to perform well mainly due to the extremely high interest rates by the Hungarian National Bank (MNB). She said that the high interest rate differential in favour of the forint has allowed the EUR/HUF exchange rate to stabilise below 400 recently.
“As we believe that the monetary policy of the central bank will continue to be very cautious in the coming months and they will be very cautious in exiting from this very high interest rate environment, we do not expect the forint to weaken back above 400 against the euro,” she told novekedes.hu.
“Overall, we think the exchange rate will be able to stabilise below 400,”
According to Péter Virovácz, Macroeconomic Analyst at ING Bank, it is important to note that there are still many external factors influencing the forint exchange rate. Global developments continue to drive regional exchange rates. The strengthening of the dollar in recent days has made the Hungarian forint weaker, but Virovácz says this dollar strength will not be sustained. “From an investor perspective, the forint is very much influenced by inflation, the external balance, the current account and foreign exchange reserves,” he listed.
The expert says that inflation is expected to peak in January-February and then slowly start to fall. This may show that inflation has been contained to some extent and that monetary policy is working. This will strengthen the forint.
“We clearly believe that the euro-forint exchange rate could remain below 400, with a slower, more gradual strengthening trend from the current level of 385-391,”
“It seems that we have experienced a very significant strengthening of the forint,” said Dávid Németh, Senior Macroeconomic Analyst at K&H Bank. He stressed that it was important to mention that the FRS (Federal Reserve System) and the ECB (European Central Bank) had just recently raised interest rates. The next rate decision will be in 6 weeks’ time, in mid-March.
In the meantime, substantial new information from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is expected only in the weeks leading up to the decision. This will be an exciting period for the forint, Németh stressed. He expects the forint to test levels around 400. However, he does not expect the exchange rate to break back into the 420-430 range.
“Overall, I expect higher volatility movements, with the bottom of the range looking around 380-382 and the top around 405,”
“Our last forecast was made at the end of last year, when we expected the euro-forint exchange rate to reach 390. However, since then a number of underlying conditions have improved significantly,” said Gergely Suppan, senior analyst at Magyar Bankholding. One of these is the fall in energy prices, especially gas prices, he added. This will lead to a significant improvement in the current account and external trade balance this year.
“In principle, we expect a rate above 400 only in very extreme cases, we consider a strengthening more likely,”
said Gergely Suppan.
– A country Hungary – with GROWING Political in-stability, moving at rapidness, from a Democracy, back to be Ruled & Governed under Communistic political ideas & philosophy.
– Inflation, Interest Rates, “explosion” of Cost of Living – the broad picture of the LOWER millions of Hungarians – the socio economic evaluated picture – will FACTUALLY be seen a MASSIVE continual DECLINE in there Quality of Life.
– the “Rich get Richer & the POOR get POORER.”
– the Inability of Government – the Orban led Government of Hungary, making Investment – into the NEEDS of a 21st century population of Hungary – our way of LIFE, that OVERALL remains FUNCTIONING – in a “Time Ball” of the 19th century.
The Orban led Government is FINANCILLY “void” of Funds – BANKRUPT – and Investment, that in 12 years of Government by the Orban “lot” – has suffered from no future planning into widespread NEEDS of Hungarian CIVILIANS.
– Education, Hospitals – the General “needs” of a society in overall medical facilities, Dental. Optical & so on – NO investment of SUBSTANCE – has been directed to these sectors of Civilian life, by this Orban Government.
Sporting arenas – YES.
– Education what a SHAM, a DISASTER – through simple, the abuse and inability – the PRIOITIZING – of education being granted it, by the Orban led Government.
The Orban Government – “around the table” its lack of Candour to SPEAK and Negotiate – talking TRUTH.
– Real Estate/Construction Industry – being “Veiled” by its CONTROL of Media, in Hungary, by the Orban Government, that it could be in a state of CARNANGE.
What is THERE to ATTRACT into the FUTURE investment into Hungary?
Zoning in just on wages – the basic earnings of Hungarians factually evidenced and recorded – as being lower than Romania and in a broader picture, in the European Union and Wider Europe, in a BOTTOM nearing “mean” position – APPALLING.
Be NOT surprised as Hungary moves closer to a transformation of Governance, abandoning, what in 1989 August in his speech from Hero’s Square, the present Prime Minister – Victor Orban speaking to ALL of Hungary – in a PONTIFICAL firmament convinced dialogue, the FUTURE need of Hungary MUST be under DEMOCRACY – and that we prepare ourselves – for the possibility of the WITHDRAWAL of Major companies operating in Hungary, through the transformation, that sees Hungary returning to Communistic Rule.
Its DEEPER than the LOW wages LARGE – in particular the Motor Manufacturing Industry – need to pay employee’s – than in there own country’s, and the LOWER earnings of workers is NOT the total dominant reason why we could witness the withdrawal of MAJOR corporations at present employee ten’s of thousands of Hungarians.
Stabilization – what is going to Stabilize the Hungarian economy?
What is going to enable the Hungarian economy – to find what is titled – SUSTAINABILITY?
The points raised in the componentry of the Hungarian Economy, which these are but few of ALL, they HAVE a mass effect on the FORINT.
The FORINT – is on the “Nose” – what is its ATTRACTION?
We will sooner than later witness the FORINT around the 380 -385 range of the Euro exchange rate and NOT sitting nor SUSTAINING a level above 400.
The Graveness – the immediate to long term RAMIFICATIONS by the growing instability uncertainty of the present Orban Government, its agenda to change from a DEMOCRACY to a Communistic Government – Hungary, the possibility of Hungary being EXPELLED from the European Union & NATO, its growing alignment relationship with Russia & China – all parts not ALL – that ADD to the “explosive” QUESTION – the FUTURE of Hungary – what’s going to left of us, if the ORBAN plan – is allowed to CONTINUE?
Have we NOT been Hungary – separated, isolated, abandoned, ostracized, embarrassed scared & damaged, shamed, humiliated laughed at as a country by the ORBAN “creeds” – his “dogma” ideas of Political Philosophy?
1989 – Hero’s Square – Victor Orban to Hungary our FUTURE.
You tube it – listen to IT.
History – never LIES.
2023 – what has Victor Orban – given US and what is our FUTURE?
we have seen the euro cost EUR 432.