Who will win the Champions League?

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The UEFA Champions League is undoubtedly the world’s greatest club competition, the biggest games in club football are played during these months. The competition is capable of glueing hundreds of millions of people to the TV. With the quarterfinals rapidly approaching and the draw for them taking place on 15 March, one important question arises: who will win the Champions League?

The UEFA Champions League, being the world’s biggest club competition, draw hundreds of millions of viewers every year. According to The Athletic, in 2023, UEFA estimated that a global audience of 450 million people would watch at least some part of the Champions League final which saw Manchester City and Inter Milan facing each other. The 2023/24 Champions League finals promise to be no less exciting, so a similarly high viewership is expected.

The groups

The 8 groups of the UEFA Champions League 2023/24 are the following:

Group A Group B Group C Group D Group E Group F Group G Group H
Bayern Munich Arsenal Real Madrid Real Sociedad Atlético de Madrid Borussia Dortmund Manchester City Barcelona
Copenhagen PSV Eindhoven Napoli Inter Milan Lazio Paris Saint-Germain RB Leipzig Porto
Galatasaray Lens Braga Benfica Feyenoord Milan Young Boys Shakhtar Donetsk
Manchester United Sevilla Union Berlin Red Bull Salzburg Celtic Newcastle United Red Star Belgrade Antwerp

Round 16 and quarterfinals

As the Round of 16 is progressing, with 8 more teams playing on 12 and 13 March, more and more predictions are coming to light as to who the top 8, top 4, top 2 and the Champions will be. As uefa.com reports, the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League quarter-final, semi-final and final draws will take place at 12:00 CET on Friday, 15 March 2024.

So far, 4 teams secured their places in the quarterfinals:

  • Bayern Münich
  • Manchester City
  • Paris Saint-Germain
  • Real Madrid

The following 8 teams are competing for the next 4 seats:

  • Porto (POR) vs Arsenal (ENG)
  • Napoli (ITA) vs Barcelona (ESP)
  • PSV Eindhoven (NED) vs Borussia Dortmund (GER)
  • Inter Milan (ITA) vs Atlético de Madrid (ESP)

Chances of the 4 teams already in quarter-finals

To start with, let’s summarise what coefficients are. The UEFA coefficients are statistics based on weighted arithmetic means which are used for ranking and seeding teams in club and international competitions.

Now, let’s take a look at the chances of the 4 teams already in the top 8 to win the Championship.

Bayern Münich

Bayern’s UEFA coefficient ranking is 2. In the last 3 seasons, the German team could not advance past the quarter-finals. Do you think it will change this year? According to a UEFA.com Bayern reporter, the team “made no secret of their ambition to progress beyond the quarter-finals, the end of the line for them in the Champions League for the past three seasons”. According to the reporter, Harry Kane is the reason many fans believe Bayern might turn out to be German champions this year. In Kane, the team has an “elite striker”, a player who can fire the team up.

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