400,000 Hungarians will disappear in just a few years’ time

More than 400 thousand Hungarian will disappear by 2050, as population decline seems irreversible. But this number is not that scary if we put it into other perspectives.

According to Eurostat’s latest population projection, Hungary’s population could decrease by 400,000 by 2050 and by a further 600,000 by 2100, Pénzcentrum reports.

The population of the European Union will decrease by 6 percent between 1 January 2022 and 1 January 2100, equivalent to 27.3 million fewer people, according to Eurostat.

Ageing society

The proportion of children and young people (aged 0 to 19 years) in the total population is projected to decrease from 20 percent at the beginning of 2022 to 18 percent by 2100. Similarly, the share of working-age people (aged 20-64 years) in the EU’s total population is projected to decrease from 59 percent in 2022 to 50 percent in 2100.

In contrast, the share of older age groups (65 years and above) in the EU’s total population is projected to increase. The share of those aged between 65-79 is expected to rise by 2 percentage points (pp) from 15 percent at the beginning of 2022 to 17 percent in 2100, while the share of those aged 80 years or more is foreseen to be more than double, from 6 to 15 percent. The EU’s population is projected to peak at 453 million people in 2026, before decreasing to a projected level of 420 million in 2100.

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Hungary set to lose almost a tenth of its inhabitants

Hungary’s population has been declining since 1981, and at a rate previously seen only in the years of the two world wars. According to the Central Statistical Office (KSH), the country’s population has fallen by an estimated 737 000 since 1981. In comparison, Eurostat’s population projections show a population loss of 5.7 percent. The number of men will fall from 4.644 million to 4.548 million and the number of women from 5.044 million to 4.505 million over the next 80 years.

This means that by 2050 there will be about 400,000 fewer Hungarian than now, but by 2100 there will be a million fewer than today.

Pénzcentrum’s analysis of Eurostat’s data points out that the less than 6 percent population decline is not the worst in the region. Poland, with more than 38 million inhabitants, and Romania, with 19 million, are set to see their populations fall by 23-23 percent in the next decades.

Of course, Hungary’s projections are still shocking compared to the Western economic powerhouses of Germany and France, where immigration can recuperate the losses of ageing societies. There Eurostat predicts only 0.5 and 0.2 percent loss respectively, while they are projecting growing tendencies for Scandinavian and Benelux states.

Although the population decline in Hungary is set to be not that huge compared to our neighbours, the Hungarian population in the entire Carpathian Basin is lower than ever.