Trump’s triumph could mean PM Orbán’s defeat and a government change in 2026
The Hungarian government placed all bets on President Trump’s victory in the November presidential elections. PM Orbán hopes Trump will end the war in Ukraine and lower US and EU pressure on Hungary concerning certain issues and their private friendship could help develop ties between the two countries. However, a new Trump administration could be shocking for Hungary’s economy due to the policies he promises to follow. Experts believe Hungary may experience a struggling automotive industry, contracting economy, and a weak forint if Trump wins.
PM Orbán needs positive economic news to win
According to Portfolio, PM Orbán and his government should not dream about Trump’s November victory because that may mean their loss in the 2026 general elections. The former president’s economic policies would decrease trade between the EU and the USA, resulting in a declining German and Hungarian economy. The new crisis would come ahead of the Hungarian general elections which Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party has a real chance to win. Based on the latest polls, his party is 1-2% ahead of the Fidesz. Such rates were impossible in the last 18 years.
23 October commemoration of the Tisza Party in Budapest. Photo: MTI/Balogh Zoltán
Hence, PM Orbán wants new MP candidates, more coming outs to ease scandals and a more effective government-close media. Some Hungarian media outlets wrote he plans purges in the next few months. Furthermore, he announced ambitious economic goals like an impressive wage rise, the extension of the family support system and support for the SME sector. Orbán seems determined to carry out those plans even though the Hungarian economy struggles, GDP growth is falling behind aims and the people do not want to increase their consumption.
Trump would attack the foundation of Hungary’s economy
Much of the Hungarian economy is built on the automotive industry where German and Chinese carmakers dominate and more than 150,000 Hungarians work. However, Trump’s new presidency would hit that sector hard.
The former US president promises a 10% tariff on all imports and 60% on imports from China. Since the trade value between the EU and the USA is more than EUR 1,000 billion yearly, such changes would affect Europe. Such tariffs, for example, would lead to a trade war between the EU and the USA, China and the USA, and China and the EU, undermining the global trade system. According to the Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft, a 10% safeguard duty would reduce the world’s GDP by 0.6% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2027.
Trump’s victory may result in Orbán’s defeat. Photo: FB/Orbán
Economic decline on the horizon in Europe and Hungary
Erste Group wrote in an analysis that the economic contraction would be painful in Slovakia and Hungary since 4.5% and 3.8% (USD 2.5 billion) of their export go to the USA. According to an analysis of the S&P, China could not help out Hungary in that regard.
Hungary’s economy is volatile to outer shocks because its openness to merchandise trade is high, 137.6% in 2022. According to the Erste, the German economy may decrease by 1.4% in the worst-case scenario. The Trump administration would cause 0.5% GDP contraction for Hungary in 2025 and 0.22% in 2026. Meanwhile, PM Orbán and his government need GDP and consumption growth to win in 2026.
China, forint, military
Furthermore, the new Trump administration would probably want Hungary to weaken its political-economical-financial relationship with China. This summer the Hungarian government took out an immense loan to spend on the installation of electric vehicle charging stations in rural areas.
FM Szijjártó with China’s foreign affairs minister. Source: Facebook/ Minister Szijjártó
We wrote HERE that the Trump presidency would mean a stronger dollar, which is bad news for the currencies of emerging markets like Hungary.
Moreover, Portfolio wrote that Trump would expect Hungary to buy American military equipment, which would mean an extra burden for the country’s budget.
Read also:
- Orbán cabinet introduces stricter rules on guest worker employment – read more HERE
- Orbán government celebrates success, but Hungary faces its steepest economic decline of the year
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2 Comments
The Real Person!
The Real Person!
Great article that explains the sheer idiocy of the right-wing Fidesz crowd which cheers for someone who will bring disaster to themselves.. It shows how mindless ideology can numb the brain to logic.
The Real Person!
The Real Person!
NOTHING should nor stop, the current Prime Minister of Hungary – from the POWER that is HELD by the people in Hungary, through there Voice and VOTE – conducted in Solidarity and Orderly – from Victor Mihaly. Orban – “heavily” – Falling off his Perch.
Orban – his Fidesz Government growing evidence of the DESTRUCTION just not of our Economy, but of our REPUTATION – our Respect by “other” country’s especially those Governed under DEMOCRACY.
Hungary, the DIRT from under the table still has PILES to be laid on the table, exposed, made transparent, of the WICKEDNESS act(s) practiced undertaken over 15 years of this Orban – Fidesz Government.
Hungary has been FAILED and the MESS left is still far from over.
Orban – the Fidesz Government – what we know as FACT they have committed on us as citizens, on the name Hungary, that are WRONGFUL, abusive insulting “Heinous” acts – and what still is to SURFACE after they are DISGRACED from Office – they should never be APPEASED.
We FIGHT them – Orban – his Fidesz Government, in Solidarity in accepting as a country we NEED change, if we want a FUTURE.
We FIGHT them – Orban – his Fidesz Government – in opposition speaking TRUTH & Facts.
Hungarians – the POWER of Truth – will set us FREE free – from this BLACKENED time, this Orban – Fidesz Government has DELIVERED us to live our lives in Hungary.