What can PM Orbán and Hungary gain from Trump’s victory?

In the first presidential term of President Trump, he did not know who Orbán was, even though he was the Hungarian prime minister, the first leader who endorsed him after announcing his candidacy. Times changed. Trump regularly praised Orbán’s policies in his speeches and interviews before the election. Thus, Orbán can expect probably the best American-Hungarian relations in history. Is that a realistic expectation? Will he receive support from Washington, or will Trump slam his China policies? What about the Republicans who see Orbán as a national security threat?

We wrote in THIS article that PM Orbán might become a policymaker in the United States thanks to his close relationship with President-elect Donald Trump. Based on informants of Szabad Európa, Trump is the kind of person who gives great value to personal relationships, and since Orbán always told him what he wanted to hear, their nexus is probably the best in history if we take just US presidents and Hungarian prime ministers.

Will Orbán be as popular in the USA as Kossuth was?

The only exception may be Lajos Kossuth, immensely popular as a freedom fighter and an advocate of civil rights in the USA after the Russian-Habsburg oppression of the 1848-1849 freedom fight. Kossuth spent almost a year in the USA popularising the Hungarian cause, average Americans welcomed him as a hero and even President Lincoln allegedly took one of his most well-known messages in his famous Gettysburg Address from Kossuth.

Orbán and Trump in 2019. Trump did not know Orbán then. Photo: Facebook.com/orbanviktor

Kossuth said in 1852 that “the spirit of our age is Democracy. All for the people, and all by the people. Nothing about the people without the people – That is Democracy!”. Lincoln told people after the Battle of Gettysburg that “these dead shall not have died in vain, that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.”

Trump’s relationship with Orbán may be in another universe

Historians note that President George H. W. Bush regularly asked the opinion of the first democratically-elected Hungarian prime minister, József Antall, about Central and Eastern European issues. However, PM Orbán probably hopes for more concerning the new Trump era.

According to Szabad Európa, the Trumpist wing of the Republican Party considers Orbán a hero because of the Hungarian government’s “anti-woke”, “anti-gender” and “pro-family” policies. The leader of an American Republican think tank said there was a religious, right-wing voter group, the new rightists, who regard anti-gender and anti-LGBTQ policies as the most important. Trump and other Republican leaders established good connections with Orbán because of the Hungarian prime minister’s efficient struggles on the issue.

A fan at Tusványos Summer University in Transylvania. Photo: Facebook/Viktor Orbán

A government-close think tank’s employee told Szabad Európa that the Hungarian government’s family policy was in one package with being “anti-woke”, and anti-LGBTQ, just like strengthening the Christian middle class. Therefore, it was attractive for Trump and VP candidate Vance.

Orbán tried to incorporate Hungarian experts and companies into the Trump team. A former Hungarian diplomat stationed in Washington confirmed there might be people paid by the Hungarian government who work for Trump-close think tanks. One of them is the KÓD Market Research Institute. KÓD plays an important role in Hungary as a subcontractor.

Some Republican strongmen see Orbán as a national security threat

A Republican Senate official, on the other hand, told Szabad Európa that Republican officials travelling, and giving addresses in Hungary did not get a full view of the Hungarian government’s policies. They only learned about anti-LGBTQ but were not told what the Orbán cabinet stands for e.g. concerning the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Vance is also a fan of Orbán. Will he remain one in office? Photo: FB/JD Vance

Furthermore, what the Hungarian government does concerning taxes or the economy is the exact opposite of what Republicans believe should be done. Therefore, cooperation in policies is unimaginable. Zsuzsanna Végh, an analyst of the German Marshall Fund, believes Orbán can serve as an example for Trump of how a democratically-elected leader can reduce checks and balances and the rule of law and create an illiberal state while remaining a member of the democratic world.

What is important for Orbán?

Szabad Európa learned that most experts believe the Hungarian government does not want more than “positive silence” concerning the Hungarian-American relationships. They want the White House to let them do what they did before. That means the Orbán cabinet will not struggle to sign a new double taxation treaty or help Hungarian citizens born abroad to get US visas.

Végh said Orbán’s importance will increase in the EU thanks to Trump’s victory, but there are many conflicts of interest between the Trump-led USA and Hungary. One of the most important is the relationship with China.

China will be a red flag for the new US administration. Photo: FB/Orbán

Some Republicans believe Orbán is a national security threat due to his Russian, and Chinese relations

The Orbán cabinet regularly argues that Hungary, as a commercially open and small country short in capital, constantly needs foreign investments. Therefore, they trade with everybody, thus remaining “economically neutral”. That is why some Republicans regard Orbán as a national security threat.

Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell slammed the Hungarian government’s close economic relationships with China and Hungary’s closeness with Iran. Furthermore, he believes Orbán helps Moscow by baulking EU and Transatlantic initiatives against Russia’s illegal aggression in Ukraine.

McConnell added that Trump was charmed by Orbán, but he and his supporters are in a minority in the Republican party, and serious people are not concerned with Orbán. He said Russians and the Chinese use Hungary as a backdoor to infiltrate the USA. He said nobody wanted to anger Trump by criticising Orbán, but they do not believe in the Hungarian prime minister.

China, Ukraine, Russia

A senior employee of a Trump-close think tank said the USA needed a stabilised Europe with a free Ukraine to turn their full attention to China. But Hungary’s China policies are problematic, and the Trump administration will raise that question soon.

A Hungarian diplomat answering Szabad Európa’s questions said Hungary should reduce its relationship with China to a pragmatic level, but that needs a well-prepared professional team, which Orbán lacks. He said the Orbán cabinet should, without promoting it, convince Trump that Hungary needs Chinese investments. It is a major question whether the Hungarian government will be able to achieve that goal in the next few years.

Read also:

• The background of the Trump-Orbán bromance: the Hungarian prime minister says what he wants to hear – read more HERE
• Trump’s victory threatens forint with collapse, Orbán cabinet happy and congratulates