Forint strengthened, but the EUR/HUF exchange rate may exceed 500 in 2025

After Donald Trump’s victory, the Hungarian forint started to fall and reached even 412/EUR, which was a 2-year maximum. The same trend was happening in the case of the dollar-forint exchange rate level. Later, the forint began to strengthen, and now it is at 407/EUR.

One euro may cost 500 forints in 2025

According to experts discussing the future of the Hungarian economy and the forint at the Portfolio Investment Day 2024 conference, Trump’s economic policy would cause three times as big budget deficit than the Democrat administration. The consequence will be higher interest rates siphoning money from emerging markets like Hungary and the entire Central European region.

In trade, Trump may initiate new trade wars, which would also harm Europe and strengthen the dollar. Péter Virovácz, a leading analyst of ING Bank, said that by mid-2025, the dollar-euro rate can become 0.98, which would cause a euro/forint rate above 500.

Will that sum be only EUR 4 in 2025? Photo: Pexels

The Hungarian National Bank remained calm

Although Portfolio wrote about a possible base interest rate increase, the Hungarian National Bank remained calm despite the weakening forint.

The Monetary Council of the National Bank of Hungary discussed a single option, to keep the base rate on hold, in line with a “careful, patient and stability-oriented approach”, at a monthly policy meeting in October, the minutes from the meeting show, MTI wrote.

The Council members voted unanimously to keep the base rate on hold at 6.50pc at the meeting on October 22.

Members highlighted that deteriorating international investor sentiment and volatile commodity prices posed upside risks to domestic inflation and said the moderation in the external interest rate environment was likely to continue at a slower pace than previously expected, the minutes show.

“There was a consensus among decision makers that, given the increase in upside risks to inflation, careful and patient monetary policy was still warranted looking ahead,” according to the minutes. “Members in general reaffirmed their commitment to the importance of cautious, data-driven and stability-oriented decision-making.”

Forint at 407/EUR

The forint strengthened in the second half of this week. Currently, it is at 407/EUR.

According to MTI, the forint traded at 406.52 to the euro around 5:30 in the evening on Friday, softening from 404.68 late Thursday. The forint slipped to 379.15 from 375.15 against the dollar. It eased to 433.36 from 429.91 to the Swiss franc.

Read also:

• Trump’s victory threatens forint with collapse, Orbán cabinet happy and congratulates – read more HERE
• U.S. presidential election pushes forint to 2-year low