400+ forever? Analysts predict a bleak future for the Hungarian forint

Analysts do not expect the euro exchange rate to return to levels below 400 forints in the longer term, and trends suggest that it could reach a level of around 415-420 forints by the end of 2025.

According to Economx, the weak forint has a significant impact on consumer confidence, which is exacerbated by high inflation and expensive food prices. Although inflation is expected to moderate to 3.8% in 2024, households will continue to face declining purchasing power. This trend reflects the steady weakening of the forint in recent years, mainly due to high inflation, low consumer confidence and external economic and political uncertainties. The weak forint is also leading to further increases in the prices of imported goods, putting sustained pressure on household spending.

Inflation, which exceeded 20% in 2023, may fall to 3.8% in 2024, but price levels will remain persistently high. The weakening of the forint will further increase the cost of imported goods, including energy and food, which could generate further inflationary pressures. This will slow the recovery of purchasing power and undermine the stability of the forint.

The fall of Premium Hungarian Government Securities

The fall in the yields of Premium Hungarian Government Securities may also have an indirect impact on the forint. Retail investors may shift their money into other assets, such as government bonds issued in foreign currencies or foreign investments. This could reduce demand for the forint, causing further weakening. The central government debt management agency may try to introduce more attractive interest rate conditions, but higher yields on government bonds in the market could still provide strong competition.