Political expectations boost the forint: Is the market betting on a Tisza Party victory? Bloomberg says yes

At the beginning of the year, one euro cost 415 forints; today, the exchange rate hovers around 388 forints. This represents a 6% gain, while against the U.S. dollar, the Hungarian currency has recovered 20% so far in 2025. Excluding the Russian ruble, the forint has outperformed all other emerging-market currencies.

While favourable domestic interest rates partly support this trend, Bloomberg’s analysis suggests political factors are also at play. Investors are increasingly factoring in a potential election victory for the Tisza Party and its leader, Péter Magyar.

The “Tisza bet”: Investors betting on a change of government

Bloomberg notes that the forint’s strength reflects the market’s anticipation of a government change, which could unlock EUR 18 billion in currently frozen EU funds. That amount corresponds to roughly one-tenth of Hungary’s GDP and could give the economy a significant boost.

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Barclays analysts already encouraged clients in August to take a closer look at the forint and consider positions that would benefit from a political turnaround. The bank also upgraded its outlook on Hungarian government bonds, citing the potential for favourable market reactions if the opposition were to win.

Péter Magyar’s promises

At a recent campaign event in Budapest, the Tisza Party leader pledged a more predictable economic policy, an anti-corruption drive, and the rapid securing of EU funds, according to Portfolio. He argued that these measures could generate up to 4% growth—a rate not seen in Hungary since 2022.

Magyar has repeatedly cited Donald Tusk’s example, who quickly regained Poland’s EU funds after the 2023 government change. That move triggered a strong rally in Polish assets, and some investors are now hoping for a similar outcome in Hungary.

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Orbán still a force

Bloomberg, however, reminds readers that Viktor Orbán still controls a powerful media machine, state-backed companies, and a parliamentary supermajority. In 2022, Fidesz comfortably defeated the opposition coalition, and the government remains capable of significant mobilisation.

Adnan El-Araby, co-manager of the Barings Eastern Europe Fund, commented: “Realistically, we are far from a scenario where Orbán no longer dominates the political landscape.” He added, however, that it is understandable for nimble investors to try to capitalise on political expectations early.

Analysts’ views

Juan Orts of Societe Generale notes that as elections approach, positions betting on forint gains and lower interest rates may become increasingly common. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Sergei Voloboev adds that an Orbán victory would maintain the status quo, while a Tisza win could prompt the market to anticipate better EU relations and a more favourable business environment.

Debating the future

As the April 2026 elections approach, the question of which scenario would be more beneficial for the forint and Hungary’s economy is gaining prominence. Most analysts agree, however, that the full release of EU funds and an inflow of foreign capital would strengthen the Hungarian currency under any government.