Hungarian energy company Mol secretly plans to take over sanctioned Serbian oil giant

According to local media reports, Hungarian oil firm Mol Nyrt. is in talks to acquire an 11.3% stake in Serbia’s NIS oil company, currently under U.S. sanctions. The transaction, while not a controlling interest, could change NIS ownership structure and potentially ease the sanctions pressure expected to be reassessed by 25 November.

If Mol completes the purchase, the majority ownership of NIS would change to non-Russian investors, combining the Serbian state’s 29.87% holding, minority shareholders’ 13.9%, and Mol’s 11.3% for a total of 55.07%. This would reduce Gazprom Neft, the sanctioned majority shareholder, to 44.93%. Gazprom Neft is Gazprom’s oil division, smaller than Russia’s largest oil companies but significant in size, according to Telex.

Is Mol only interested in a controlling stake?

Experts caution this deal may primarily serve as a workaround to U.S. sanctions rather than a strategic acquisition. Erste oil analyst Tamás Pletser described the 11.3% stake as a “hypocritical solution” without real business sense, noting that Mol would likely be interested only in a controlling stake. He also warned of American scepticism towards such arrangements, with the potential for further sanctions if the U.S. perceives attempts to circumvent restrictions.

Serbian media Nin.rs report that a Russian delegation is expected in Budapest on 15 November to discuss the matter, while Belgrade is also engaged in parallel talks with the United Arab Emirates. The NIS refinery in Pančevo still operates on strategic oil reserves but faces pressure due to U.S. sanctions that prohibit business with NIS and restrict payment methods like Visa and Mastercard.

Supply challenges and ownership

The refinery, supplied mainly through the Janaf pipeline from Croatia, processes around 4.5 million tonnes annually with about a quarter sourced domestically. Analysts say a change in ownership could help evade sanctions if NIS becomes majority controlled by non-Russian investors or placed under state guardianship, though the latter risks straining traditional Russian-Serbian ties.

There are also logistical complexities in supplying other Serbian petrol stations not affected by sanctions, especially as Hungary’s Danube refinery operates at reduced capacity following a fire. Nevertheless, Mol’s acquisition of NIS could create synergies with the regional market and potentially strengthen its position against Croatian pipeline operators.

Political developments

Another source confirms that talks gained momentum following Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán Viktor’s U.S. visit, where President Donald Trump reportedly promised Hungary a one-year exemption from Russian oil sanctions, Portfolio writes. Alongside Mol, the UAE is considered a potential buyer, with Sheikh Abu Dhabi possible as a future majority shareholder.

The NIS share purchase might expedite plans for a new Hungarian-Serbian oil pipeline, reportedly expected to be completed within a year.

Impact on NIS subsidiaries abroad

However, NIS subsidiaries abroad face severe difficulties, with 84 petrol stations closed across Romania, Bulgaria and Bosnia due to sanctions causing losses estimated at EUR 350-360 million.