Serbian oil company targeted for acquisition, with Mol also in the race
The Serbian oil company NIS has been pushed to the brink of operational collapse by US sanctions, while its Russian majority owner is prepared to sell its stake. Due to the urgency of the situation, a decision on who will take over the controlling share could be made within days – based on its financial background and regional presence, Mol is a strong candidate, but rival adnoc has also entered the race.
A decision about the future of the Serbian oil company NIS could come within days, as it has been struggling with severe operational difficulties since US sanctions came into force on 8 October. The situation not only threatens the security of Serbia’s energy supply, but may also have serious economic and political consequences at a regional level.
Mol is among the potential investors who could take over the Russian majority stake, and based on its financial capacity it has a realistic chance of completing the acquisition, reports 24.hu.
Sanctions have paralysed Serbian oil imports
NIS (Naftna Industrija Srbije) is a key player in Serbia’s oil industry and operates the country’s only major refinery, located in Pančevo. Until now, the company mainly processed seaborne crude oil delivered by pipeline through Croatia.
However, the US sanctions have made imports practically impossible, causing major deliveries to halt almost entirely. This has immediately resulted in significant supply uncertainty: without a rapid solution, Serbia may run out of its strategic oil reserves within days, forcing the refinery to shut down.
The Pančevo refinery operates with an annual capacity of 4.8 million tonnes, and its shutdown would leave the country 100% dependent on imports. In addition, the Serbian oil company operates the country’s largest fuel retail network with around 327 filling stations, so any halt in its operations would cause immediate economic disruption.
Complex ownership structure with Russian majority stake
The ownership structure of the Serbian oil company is fragmented, but Gazprom holds a majority share of more than 50%, while the Serbian state owns nearly 30%. The remaining stake is held by employees and private investors.
Due to the ownership structure and sanctions background, the Russian side appears willing to sell its stake. This would be a strategically significant step both politically and economically: restoring Serbia’s supply security is extremely urgent, while for Gazprom, resolving the issue is advisable due to increasing sanction pressure.
Another buyer emerges alongside Mol
Gergely Gulyás announced Mol’s potential involvement at a government press conference. Although the Hungarian oil group has not officially confirmed the negotiations, Serbian media treat the talks as a fact.
Another major interested party has also emerged: the state oil company of the United Arab Emirates, adnoc. According to Serbian press reports, however, Mol currently negotiates from a stronger position, primarily due to its regional presence.
Hungary already helping Serbia
The urgency of the situation is highlighted by the fact that the Hungarian government acted immediately after the sanctions were announced. From November onwards, Mol doubled its crude oil and fuel deliveries to Serbia, and from December these will increase to two and a half times the previous level.
During his visit to Belgrade, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó emphasised that this is a strategic decision aimed at maintaining Serbia’s supply security.
How much could the majority stake in the Serbian oil company cost?
According to Economx, the main remaining question is the value of the much-discussed stake. According to Erste analyst Tamás Pletser, the 56.1% NIS package is worth 1.41 billion USD – around 465 billion forints at the current exchange rate – calculated on the basis of the company’s 2024 EBITDA and an EV multiplier of 4.5 typical of emerging-market oil and gas companies.
At the end of the third quarter of this year, Mol held 1.42 billion USD in cash and cash equivalents – practically the same amount as the value of the stake. This means the company could complete the transaction without involving external financing.