Strategic Serbian refinery could come under Hungarian control thanks to close Trump–Orbán and Putin–Orbán ties

For 36 days, the Serbian state-owned NIS oil refinery in Pančevo — the country’s sole oil refinery — has operated without a licence, making it indispensable to the Balkan state’s fuel supply. Today, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is preparing for a major announcement, which he has described as delivering “phenomenal political news”. Experts say part of this will involve MOL’s acquisition of ownership in the Serbian NIS. 

The Americans’ grace period has expired

Regarding NIS (not to be confused with the town of Niš), the United States imposed sanctions last November as part of a broader package targeting Russian assets in Europe in connection with the invasion of Ukraine. The company has significant Russian ownership: Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, directly owns 11.3%; Gazprom Neft, which is also on the sanctions list, holds 44.9%; while the Serbian state owns 29.9%.

As a result of the US sanctions, Croatia’s JANAF pipeline was unable to supply crude oil, nor could the company conduct financial transactions. Even so, this would not have been possible had the relevant American authority not granted a grace period to resolve the situation. That grace period expired on 2 December, meaning that over the past 36 days NIS has effectively had no access to raw materials, and operations at the Pančevo refinery have been halted. In the medium term, this could have caused a severe fuel shortage in the Balkan country.

The Hungarians have the edge because of Trump

It was already suggested last November that the Russians, who maintain good relations with the Hungarian government, might sell their shares in the region’s Hungarian oil and gas giant MOL to a party that also enjoys close ties with the government, thereby resolving Washington’s concerns as well.

• Hungarian MOL to boost its crude oil deliveries to Serbia

Velimir Lukić, a Belgrade-based economist and professor, recently argued that MOL has a clear advantage in the talks because Hungary is the United States’ “chosen country”. He says this situation is unlikely to change while Trump remains in power.

Vučić preparing for a major announcement: the refinery could become Hungarian

The progress of the negotiations is signalled by the fact that MOL and NIS previously filed a joint request to end the forced shutdown and suspend sanctions related to changes in the ownership structure. The permit arrived yesterday, according to Energy Minister Dubravka Đedović Handanović. As a result, the Pančevo refinery may resume operations. The licence is valid until 23 January.

Világgazdaság reported yesterday afternoon that President Vučić is preparing for a major announcement, describing it as “phenomenal political news”, to be released on the first day of 2026. Experts believe the announcement could concern MOL taking over the Russian stake, or part of it, in Serbian NIS. Reuters has also written about this scenario.

Read also:

• Budapest-Belgrade travel time to drop to 3.5 hours as rail tests finally begin in Hungary

Click for more articles concerning Serbia.