Hungary’s MOL to acquire majority stake of Serbia’s NIS from Russia: what this means for the region

Hungary’s energy giant MOL is set to acquire the majority of Serbia’s Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), a deal that could reshape regional fuel supply and strengthen Hungary’s influence in the Balkans.

Acquisition details and timeline

Earlier this week, it was confirmed that MOL will purchase the 56.15% Russian stake in NIS, previously held by Gazprom and its subsidiary Gazpromneft. The agreement also involves the Emirati energy company ADNOC joining as a strategic partner, while the Serbian state plans to increase its stake from 29.9% to 34.9%.

According to MOL’s Strategy Director, György Bacsa, a binding letter of intent has already been signed with the Russian sellers, forming the basis of the upcoming purchase agreement. Bacsa revealed in a recent MOL Talks podcast that the company aims to finalise the acquisition by the end of March, after which closure procedures will commence.

“We have also signed a memorandum with the Serbian government, which confirms their support for MOL’s entry. The forms of support will later be formalised in a bilateral agreement between Hungary and Serbia,” Bacsa stated.

MOL will ultimately hold a majority stake and serve as the controlling partner in a joint venture with ADNOC, with the Emirati firm taking a minority position. Bacsa emphasised that ADNOC’s entry into the European market makes the joint venture particularly attractive.

Regulatory green lights and sanctions compliance

The transaction requires approval from multiple authorities, including Russian and US regulators. Encouragingly, the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has extended its temporary permit for NIS operations, allowing MOL to proceed while the Serbian refinery operates under sanctions-related oversight.

“It’s crucial that NIS is removed from the US sanctions list to ensure smooth, uninterrupted operations,” Bacsa noted.

Strategic importance and market impact

While Hungarian consumers are unlikely to see lower fuel prices as a result of the acquisition, experts say the deal significantly improves regional supply security. Holoda Attila, an energy analyst, explains that MOL’s three-refinery network in Central Europe – including Százhalombatta, Bratislava, and now Pančevo in Serbia – allows for more stable operations, especially in emergencies like last year’s refinery disruptions in Százhalombatta.

According to Szeretlek Magyarország, the Pančevo refinery, which processes around 90,000 barrels per day, is complemented by nearly 400 fuel stations across Serbia and positions MOL to expand its footprint in neighbouring markets, including Bosnia-Herzegovina and Romania. Holoda highlights that MOL’s expertise in optimising supply chains and refining operations will likely boost output and hydrocarbon exploration in Serbia, leveraging nearly a century of experience in the Pannonian Basin.

Financial considerations and investor response

The precise purchase price remains undisclosed, though analysts estimate it at roughly EUR 1.4–1.5 billion. MOL is well-positioned to finance the acquisition, given its robust dividend capacity and access to bank funding.

Investors have reacted positively: MOL shares jumped 6.7% on Friday compared to the previous week, marking a 26% increase since the start of the year. Share prices briefly touched historic highs of HUF 3,922, levels not seen since before the 2007 financial crisis.

A long-term vision for the Balkans

Bacsa stressed that MOL views Serbia as a strategic market, with the goal of becoming the dominant player. He likened the acquisition to previous major moves in Croatia (INA) and Slovakia (Slovnaft), describing it as a “historic opportunity” to strengthen MOL’s regional influence.

“Our unspoken goal has always been to achieve the highest possible market position in Serbia. We want to be the largest player,” Bacsa said.

Holoda points out that the acquisition also represents a form of “war profiteering at the state level,” as MOL benefits from discounted Russian oil due to sanctions while maintaining fuel prices in line with international markets. Although consumers see no immediate savings, the deal bolsters Hungary’s and MOL’s strategic position in the region.