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Polymarket: Péter Magyar’s lead is overwhelming; PM Orbán faces crushing defeat
If we can trust the online bettors risking their money by betting on Péter Magyar or PM Viktor Orbán on the Polymarket, the Hungarian prime minister will suffer a crushing defeat on 12 April.
According to Szeretlek Magyarország, investors have bet USD 32 million (more than HUF one billion) on who will be Hungary’s next prime minister. 65% have backed Péter Magyar, while only 35% have backed Orbán. Such an election outcome would mean a crushing defeat for Orbán and a more than four-fifths majority for Tisza. Of course, the site is not a pollster, but the trend is clear: in recent weeks, Magyar has been rising while Orbán has been falling.
Here is a chart of the latest trends on Polymarket:
We were the first in Hungary to report Péter Magyar’s lead on Polymarket on 18 January. On 19 January, the government banned the site. However, it seems there are ways for even Hungarian users to access and bet on it. Furthermore, Polymarket Analytics and other sites analysing Polymarket remain accessible.
If you missed our previous articles concerning the 2026 general elections:
- Massive Ukrainian flag at Péter Magyar’s march yesterday: did Orbán’s lot foot the bill for the provocateurs?
- Reuters: US Vice President JD Vance may visit Hungary to support PM Orbán ahead of April elections
Wishful thinking
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Yeah, sure.
Trusting the opinions of a bunch of foreigners, who can’t even read Hungarian news.
What could go wrong?