Only six weeks of jet fuel left as Europe faces flight disruptions: implications for Hungary

Europe’s aviation sector is coming under growing pressure, with airlines already cutting flights as jet fuel prices surge and supply concerns deepen.

According to Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, disruptions could begin as early as the start of the summer if Middle Eastern supplies are not restored.

“We may have six weeks or so of kerosene left in Europe. If we cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz, we will soon hear that flights from city A to city B are being cancelled due to a lack of kerosene,” he said.

The crisis is largely driven by disruptions in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and fuel supplies. As a result, prices have surged, and the risk of physical shortages is also increasing.

Market data underlines the scale of the price shock. Jet fuel prices in Europe have reached record highs and have more than doubled since the start of the conflict, according to analysis by Argus Media.

Flight cancellations and grounded aircraft

Airlines are already preparing for potential disruption during the summer season. In response to the crisis, Lufthansa announced it will immediately retire its 27-aircraft regional fleet, while also planning further reductions in capacity in the coming months. The move had originally been scheduled for later, but has now been brought forward due to current conditions.

Shortly afterwards, the Dutch carrier KLM has confirmed it will cancel 80 return flights from Amsterdam Schiphol Airport in May. The cuts mainly affect routes with multiple daily services, allowing the airline to limit the impact on passengers.

Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, has warned that if the conflict continues, supply issues could emerge as early as May, with potential flight suspensions during the peak summer period.

Airlines stress that the immediate problem is not a lack of fuel, but its cost. At current price levels, operating less profitable routes is no longer viable, forcing carriers to cut capacity and phase out older, less efficient aircraft.

EU prepares emergency measures over jet fuel crisis

Meanwhile, the European Union is preparing its response. According to Reuters, the European Commission is set to introduce an EU-wide assessment of refining capacity from next month, alongside measures aimed at ensuring existing facilities are fully utilised and maintained.

“Europe is particularly exposed, as it relies more heavily on jet fuel imports than any other transport fuel, with around 75 per cent coming from the Middle East,” Reuters reports.

Plans also include closer coordination of refinery operations and more accurate monitoring of fuel reserves.

Experts say the coming weeks will be critical. If supply routes are not restored, what is currently a cost issue could quickly turn into a real fuel shortage affecting air travel across Europe.

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What could this mean for Hungary?

Rising jet fuel prices and mounting supply uncertainty could directly affect Hungarian passengers, mainly through flights departing from or arriving at Budapest Ferenc Liszt International Airport. Even if airlines argue the immediate challenge is a cost shock rather than an outright fuel shortage, sustained high prices typically push carriers to cut capacity, reduce frequencies on less profitable routes, and accelerate the phase-out of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. During the peak summer season, this can translate into higher ticket prices, fewer available seats, and schedule changes on certain routes for travellers in Hungary.

From a Hungarian perspective, Budapest is particularly exposed because a large share of its traffic depends on connections via major European hub airports and on high-utilisation low-cost routes. If large Western European airlines are already trimming services, the knock-on effects can reach Hungary as well: fewer onward connections, a tighter timetable, or demand shifting to different days and flights. For passengers, it may be worth planning with flexible travel dates, closely monitoring airline notifications, and factoring in that fares and schedules could change quickly for summer bookings.

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