Hungarian forint in its best form since 2021

Hungary’s currency has staged a remarkable comeback following the decisive parliamentary election victory of the Tisza Party. The forint strengthened sharply in the days after the vote, briefly pushing the euro exchange rate below 360 on Friday—an impressive gain compared with levels around 375 just a week earlier.

Forint is in a good shape, and it might just be the beginning

The rally reflects strong market confidence in the incoming government, which secured a two-thirds majority. Investors appear to be pricing in a more predictable, market-friendly economic policy, alongside a potentially more pro-European stance in foreign affairs. Analysts note that while a Tisza victory had already been expected to boost the currency, the scale and speed of the appreciation took many by surprise, writes Portfolio.

Broad-based gains against major currencies

The forint’s strength has not been limited to the euro. By Friday afternoon, it had also gained significantly against other key currencies. The US dollar fell to around HUF 306, while the Swiss franc dropped below 393.

Compared to the start of the week, the Hungarian currency strengthened by nearly 4% against the euro and even more against the dollar. Since the beginning of the month, gains have approached 7–8% against major currencies—highlighting a broad-based improvement in investor sentiment.

Optimism priced in—but tests ahead

Much of the recent rally has been driven by what analysts describe as “pre-emptive confidence”. Markets are betting that the new administration will deliver credible fiscal policies, unlock EU funds, and stabilise Hungary’s economic outlook.

However, the real test is yet to come. Investors will be closely watching the formation of the new government, particularly key ministerial appointments, as well as the first concrete economic and budgetary plans. Upcoming reviews by major credit rating agencies could also prove decisive.

In case you missed it: Hungary’s budget deficit hits record March high after government spending spree. Also, could the next stop be the eurozone? Tisza Party economy expert explains how and when.

Forecasts point to further strengthening

According to analysts at ING Bank, the forint could continue to appreciate in the coming months. Their latest projections suggest the euro could fall to around 350 within three months and potentially to 342 within a year—levels not seen since early 2020.

Even so, the outlook is not without risks. Global economic uncertainty and Hungary’s structural vulnerabilities could trigger volatility, with investors quick to take profits after the recent gains. For now, the forint’s momentum remains strong—but sustaining it will depend on whether political promises translate into tangible economic results.

Featured image is illustration. Source: depositphotos.com