Central European nations respond to inflation, set their own tone on monetary policy 

By: Gerelyn Terzo of Sharemoney

The European Central Bank (ECB) may be in no hurry to raise interest rates, but some bloc member countries are starting to take matters into their own hands. Policymakers in countries where inflation has begun to rear its head are responding with central European nations out front.

The message from “mission control” is to remain calm, as inflation is just passing through. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently stated that a more aggressive monetary policy would be “premature” and would put the post-COVID-19 economic recovery at risk. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel recently stated that she is not expecting “any excessively high inflation.” Several central banks in the bloc see it differently, however.

The ECB recently revised its consumer price outlook, attaching a medium-term symmetric target for an inflation rate of 2%. It is a target that will not easily be attained, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategists. The ECB’s previous goal was below but near 2%, which left policymakers wanting greater clarity.

In the interim, a handful of central European central banks are tackling inflation head-on amid clear-cut signs of rising interest rates. The region may expect a surplus of inflationary and interest rate-related information in the eurozone by raising rates as prices inch higher.

‘Stubbornly High Inflation’

Capital Economics characterized inflation in the Central European region (including Austria, Croatia, Germany, and others) as “stubbornly high,” a situation that has only been exacerbated by pricing pressures that continue to increase. As a result, economists at the firm are predicting a one-two punch of persistently higher inflation and hawkish monetary policy.

Inflation in Hungary and Poland, in particular, has already surpassed each of these two country’s target rates of 3% and 2.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, central bankers and the governments are, in some cases, finding themselves at odds when it comes to interest rates, inflation, and monetary policy.

Hungary Breaks With Tradition

In June 2021, Hungary took an action they have not made since 2011: The central bank raised the economy’s benchmark rate by 0.9% to 0.6%. However, the rate hike was expected and was made to combat inflation in the euro area. While consumer price increases persist, Hungarians will have to get used to tightening monetary policy in the country as policymakers plan to continue on this path for the foreseeable future.

Hungary’s central bank was a trailblazer for raising rates in a post-pandemic world in the eurozone. Policymakers have tipped their hand and may continue to increase rates on a monthly basis rather than the usual quarterly pace.

Economist Natalia Gurushina of VanEck said on Twitter that rate hikes could come sooner than later after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June increased from 5.1% to a higher-than-expected 5.3%, versus estimates of 4.9%. Prices on everything from groceries to accessing public toilets have skyrocketed by double-digit percentages.

Meanwhile, all is not well between central bankers and the administration. Gyorgy Matolcsy, who is at the helm of the Hungarian National Bank, recently urged lawmakers to rein in fiscal measures, with an eye toward slashing the country’s deficit by more than half, to 3% of GDP in 2022, from an anticipated 7.5% in 2021. Matolcsy believes the government’s spending intentions are a “mistake.”