Does Hungary have a record number of COVID-19 deaths or is the data misleading?

The coronavirus in Hungary currently has a death rate above 11% (363 fatalities for 3,065 registered cases), which can make people scared. This is a high rate. However, the big picture is more complicated and less scary.

As we have reported earlier today, the total number of registered coronavirus cases in Hungary rose to 3,065, and the total number of fatalities is currently 363. These numbers can seem frightening at first.

As Portfolio pointed out on Sunday, the cumulative death rate in Hungary is exceptionally high compared to the number of registered cases. In fact, there is hardly any other country where they registered such a high number of fatalities compared to a relatively low number of registered cases. Should we be concerned?

According to these numbers, the current death rate in Hungary is above 11%. Similar percentages are observed in countries where the pandemic completely overloads the healthcare system. This is, however, not the case in Hungary thanks to the effective defence strategies initiated quickly by the government. Why the high rate then?

Can we interpret the 11% death rate as saying that in Hungary, one in ten people who are infected dies? More likely, it is not the case. Why are the numbers misleading? The answer is rather simple: many cases are undiagnosed.

We need to take into consideration that the detection of the virus in Hungary is very low. We simply do not make enough tests. Portfolio claims that in reality, the infection is much more widespread in Hungary than what the current numbers suggest. Many cases went undetected in the first phase of the virus, worsening the upcoming statistics.

If we take a look at the statistics in most countries, we can see patterns. 300 fatalities is a realistic number for 6,000-18,000 diagnosed cases. Therefore, with appr. 3,000 registered cases, there should be 80-150 deaths in most countries. In Hungary, however, we have double the no. of deaths to the same no. of registered cases.

This is why there is a discrepancy in the data. Because even though the death rate in Hungary is above 11%, Hungary was still only in the 33^rd place worldwide looking at the no. of fatalities, and we finished 60^th place for the no. of registered cases at the end of the first phase of the defence against the virus.

Source: www.portfolio.hu