Could Europe face a colder February? What the polar vortex is signaling

In recent days, several meteorological forecasts have suggested that colder-than-average weather could develop across parts of Europe in February.

In the background, the state of the polar vortex and the movement of cold air over Eastern Europe may play a role — potentially affecting weather conditions in Hungary as well.

Current projections indicate that northeastern airflow may become more frequent over Europe during February, a pattern that favours the arrival of colder air masses. This type of circulation typically strengthens when the structure of the polar vortex becomes disturbed, and Arctic air is no longer confined to the polar regions.

Early signs of such situations often appear in Western Europe, including areas of France, where weakening Atlantic influence can give way to sudden temperature drops and colder-than-usual periods. If this circulation pattern becomes persistent, cold air may gradually extend eastward, increasing the likelihood of prolonged frosty conditions in Eastern Europe and the wider Carpathian Basin.

The role of the polar vortex in Europe’s winter weather

Simply put, the polar vortex is a vast mass of cold air circulating above the Arctic, playing a key role in determining where winter cold spreads across the Northern Hemisphere. It extends from the Earth’s surface up into the stratosphere, reaching altitudes of around 50 kilometres.

The polar vortex consists of two main layers: the upper stratospheric component and the lower tropospheric one. When this system remains strong and stable, Arctic cold air tends to stay locked near the pole, allowing milder winter conditions to prevail across much of Europe.

However, when the vortex weakens or becomes disrupted — for example, during a sudden stratospheric warming event — cold air can spill southward. Such disruptions can trigger rapid cooling episodes that may affect large parts of Europe, including Eastern Europe and Hungary.

A cooling pattern that spans continents

In the United States, meteorologists have already noted periods when the lower part of the polar vortex may become unstable. These developments are relevant for Europe because large-scale atmospheric patterns do not stop at continental boundaries: the Northern Hemisphere’s weather systems are interconnected.

What causes extreme conditions in North America can, with some delay, influence the Atlantic region and Europe as well.

Within Europe, however, regions do not respond uniformly to these atmospheric changes. This is especially true for the Carpathian Basin, whose geographical features significantly influence how cold air behaves.

To understand why cold air behaves differently over Hungary, it helps to distinguish between two phases: the arrival of cold air and the persistence of cold conditions.

How cold air reaches the Carpathian Basin

Arrival:
Cold air approaching from the east is deflected by the Carpathian mountain range. Instead of moving directly westward, it enters the basin by bypassing the mountains to the north and south.

Settling:
Once inside the basin, the enclosed terrain allows the cold air to accumulate in lower-lying areas, where it can become trapped and lead to prolonged cold spells.

This surface-level process is closely linked to broader atmospheric conditions. When the polar vortex weakens, northeastern airflows can more easily dominate across Europe, opening the path for continental cold air. The vortex itself does not directly “bring” frost to Hungary, but it creates the conditions that allow cold air to move and then persist within the Carpathian Basin.

Extreme cold is not only a meteorological issue. A separate report examines a tragic case in Budapest in which a tragic accident happened during freezing conditions. Read more here.