Experts: Hungarian-American relationship will worsen, further restrictions in the pipeline
Zoltán Novák, the project director of the Centre for Fair Political Analysis, and Zoltán Kiszelly, the political analyst director of the Századvég School of Politics, agreed that the USA will continue the restrictions concerning Hungarian citizens because that is an element of their pressurise strategy. Meanwhile, government-close Magyar Nemzet wrote today that the main reason behind the Tuesday restriction of visa-free travel from Hungary to the USA is Ambassador David Pressman. His intervention annulled a possible agreement after promising negotiations between the two parties.
Additional restrictions possible to exert pressure
Mr Novák and Mr Kiszelly were asked by ATV, a Hungarian opposition-close TV channel about the recent scandal concerning Hungarian tourists travelling to the USA. The case in a nutshell: the validity of ESTA (the Electronic System for Travel Authorization allowing Hungarians to travel to the USA visa-free) for holders of Hungarian passports will be reduced from two years to one year. Furthermore, an ESTA will be valid for one-time use only.
The only question is why Washington introduced another harsh restriction against Hungary and why now. In 2022, they abolished ESTA travels for Hungarians born abroad. Moreover, THIS March they terminated unilaterally a double taxation treaty.
The USA says that Hungarians did not provide solutions for their security concerns. Meanwhile, Budapest argues the reason was that the Orbán administration did not provide data for Washington about the Hungarian citizens born abroad. The Hungarian government talks about political revenge, while the USA said the double citizenship law allowed criminals to enter the USA with the help of the ESTA system.
Experts agree that the real reasons behind the harsh step of the USA remains in the shadow. Some think about Orbán’s “China-praising speech” in July. Others believe the baulking of Sweden’s NATO accession was the last straw. Zoltán Kiszelly said Washington is interested in escalating the political conflicts with Hungary. The USA exerts pressure on Hungary because the Orbán cabinet does not move in the “right” direction. Hungary provides another alternative e.g. in the war in Ukraine, the Chinese battery plants or the expansion of Huawei. And that is what the Biden administration does not like so they divert professional debates to political conflicts.
Hungary waits for Trump’s victory?
“This is another warning shot”, and he believes the Americans will introduce further restrictions concerning visas and travel. Such steps are warnings towards other countries like Slovakia to show what differing from the mainstream can result in. Meanwhile, the Hungarian government does not change its policies because it waits for the results of the 2024 presidential elections.
Mr Novák said the Americans might start to ban Hungarian individuals as they did in 2014. Then, even Ildikó Vida, the president of Hungary’s tax authority, was denied to enter the USA. He added that Hungary’s positive relationship with the Russians and the Chinese is a security concern for Brussels and Washington. Interestingly, Biden shook hands only with Orbán before the NATO “family photo” this June. However, Novák said that was just a spontaneous thing.
Meanwhile, government-close Magyar Nemzet gave a simple explanation of why the restriction happened. They said negotiations between the Hungarians and the Americans went professionally and successfully. Hungarian officials worked with the American diplomats smoothly, and an agreement was close. However, Ambassador Pressman intervened and baulked a possible agreement. Magyar Nemzet also wrote that Pressman aims to meet with PM Orbán, but he could not yet. The government-close paper added that without the ESTA, Hungarians would have to pay USD 185 for a tourist visa. Furthermore, obtaining one requires much more administration and beureocracy.
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