French newspaper predict Orbán’s downfall: Is Hungary on the brink of change?

An analytical piece in the French conservative daily Le Point offers a fresh perspective on Viktor Orbán’s current challenges, asserting that the Hungarian Prime Minister is navigating one of the most turbulent phases of his political career.

According to the article, opinion polls, economic difficulties and domestic and foreign policy challenges are all contributing to Orbán’s sharp decline in popularity. The article draws data from a recent survey by Medián, which shows that the opposition Tisza Party led by Péter Magyar, has gained a significant lead over Fidesz.

Public opininon: A change brewing?

According to Index, the French newspaper cited Medián’s survey, which showed that the Tisza party already leads Fidesz by 11 percentage points among voters who are sure of their vote. In recent weeks, Fidesz’s support has plummeted from 32% to 27%, a significant drop. At the same time, the opposition party has consolidated its lead, which could pose a serious challenge to Orbán’s fourteen-year rule. The paper emphasised that the scale of the change increasingly suggests that Hungarian voters are ready to turn away from the current government.

Orban’s government is also under pressure in its relations with the EU. The newspaper speculates that Hungary could lose up to EUR 1 billion in EU funds by the end of the year if it fails to implement reforms demanded by Brussels. The article details that these reforms concern transparency in public procurement, the fight against corruption and compliance with conflict-of-interest rules. The freezing of EU funds, which currently stand at around EUR 16 billion, could put Hungary under severe financial pressure.

The French newspaper also pointed out that Hungarian voters’ political choices are currently heavily influenced by the economic difficulties they face in their daily lives. Following the record 17% inflation in 2023, figures dropped to 4% in 2024, against an EU average of 2.3%. The European Commission forecasts that Hungary’s public debt could reach 74.3% of GDP this year, driven by low GDP growth and a high budget deficit. These indicators paint a negative picture of the state of the economy and undermine the government’s economic performance.